Will the EV survive in America?

EV is already a very good option as the driving experience is vastly superior to the ICE driving experience. The performance is also incredible.
Hybrids appeal, for the most part, to environmentally conscious people.
EVs can appeal to the environmentally conscious person, the performance people, the quality drive experience people, the made in the USA or fueled with USA fuel people, the tech savvy people.
And yes, it doesn't appeal to the people that require the car to drive long distance or tow stuff or the 'low up front cost' people. But over time, EVs will move into those markets as well.

Oh, and as far as what you have read, I believe those are exaggerations and will believe it when I see it.
Yes, our ability to drill deeper, or use megatons of water to force oil out of shale is resulting in more oil. But the cheap oil fields are also in decline.

 

If a scarcity in oil develops or oil becomes more expensive to produce EV will become more competitive naturally. that may tip the scales to EV in a sustainable way. If government gets involved though incentives and overregulation those things may not be sustainable making for whipsaw policies depending who controls government. Business can manage the laws of supply and demand. The whims and vacillations of government are more than investors and business can tolerate.

 

I'm not sure if that 2020 projection means what you think it means. Fracking is primarily a NG technique. It is possible that the projection means by 2020 the LNG exports will about match the crude oil imports so we have a net import/export balance of BTUs.

Mike

 

And, last time I checked, passenger vehicles aren't the only things in America which consume petroleum.

 

I don't have much time to research about future energy prospects, but here's some dialogue -


How Long Will Fossil Fuels Dominate Energy Consumption? - WSJ.com
"MS. STRASSEL: Dan, do you buy that scenario?
MR. YERGIN: No. When this conference first met, the world was going to run out of oil. It was peak oil. And we were going to be importing so much natural gas that we would be paying $100 billion a year to import natural gas. That was five years ago. The picture changed. The picture will change in five years.
[Regarding national security], we've talked a lot about natural gas today. But what is also striking is what's happening in U.S. oil, with what's called tight oil and the development of that. You look at Canadian oil sands. You look at what's happening offshore of Brazil. And you see this kind of rebalancing of world oil going on, where probably 10 years from now the Western Hemisphere will be getting a lot less oil from the Eastern Hemisphere to begin with."

 

And is the US Energy Information Administration and reliable source of information instead of people like me surmising what the future holds for energy? (which is an incredibly complex subject)

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

 

from The Oil Drum | Why Malthus Got His Forecast Wrong

despite all the "improvements" in tech, world production has been flat. i don't know when "this conference" first met, but US oil production peaked decades ago and tar sands aren't going to change that. furthermore, if the keystone pipeline doesn't get approved, you can bet that this expansion of production won't get very far.

generally what we're seeing now is that "new" sources are just picking up the slack from declining sources. simple math should tell you that on a worldwide basis, that won't lead to increased production.

 

Also, quite relevant reading: The Oil Drum | Five Misconceptions About Peak Oil

 

Why is it so important to pipe oil all the way to deep-water shipping ports in Texas? Isn't there plenty of American oil consumption available for that oil?

 

I think it is because nobody wants to build a new refinery in their own backyard. The gulf coast refineries have brought in natural gas to use in the refining process so that they can handle a diverse range of crude sources, unlike some of the specialty refineries that can only handle sweet crude.

 

Well yeah if you're going 12 miles. I meant if you were driving 5 to 7 time further than 12mi. The 15kWh you'd pump on a Q.C. can replenish 60 miles of driving or so in 12 minutes or less. So now you're clear of the charger. That frees up the single charger for another user - and another - and another. That was my point ... more drive-ie ... driv-ie .... less chargee chargee.

 

I cannot imagine driving 60-84 miles just for a movie or dinner.

 

I believe one part of the vision is export of refined products from Texas. This is controversial but the good side is its always better to export value-added (manufactured) products rather than raw materials. Keep in mind cheap gaso flowing to east US from EU.

I agree with Daniel Yergin on many points (re peak oil). Keep in mind the current push to EV/PHV is somewhat a "push". That is to say, in anticipation that EV/PHV technology will be needed, and US wants to get into a technology leadership position. I do think the events of the last 5 years (eg; increased Oil/Gas in US) have put some political stress into the Congress decisions to advance EV/PHV, and alternate fuels from biomass is same story.

 

Because gasoline can be sold at a higher price outside the US, and because refineries in Houston have the excess capacity to allow them to produce gasoline for regional consumption "and" additional gasoline for sale outside the US...

Mo money. Mo money..

 

*shrug* we did it just the other day. Drove 40+ miles one way to see friends and have dinner, 40+ miles back. Did it the previous weekend to see a movie with friends and have dinner afterwards. 30+ miles each way.

 

I can't imagine that either .... but I'm talking about those trips you sometimes take to your relatives or friends that maybe live that far away ... or the occasional trip to the county fair or the beach or the lake or to the local ski lift etc. Believe it or not some people do take other trips different from just the movie theater or groceries.
.

 

as my aunt once said "Just because you visit the dentist twice a year doesn't mean you date them the other 50 weeks."

with all the carshare and rental options around, just grab another vehicle for those occasions. maybe even something "fun" like a recreation vehicle or an indulgent sports car.

 

Ditto. But it sucks, and is one of the reasons living in California drives me up a wall.

 

Sergiospl, that graphic is a bit misleading as fleetcarma "derives" it rather than taking actual ev ranges.

if you look at the comments from fleetcarma, they measured battery power and SOC, including such things as a driver sitting in a slow moving vehicle with the heater on generating a very high kWh : distance traveled value.

they didn't actually measure the ev distances driven in these temperatures. it seems somewhat obvious that someone in a leaf that wanted to travel more than 36 miles in -13 could do so, albeit by wearing a coat.