Will the EV survive in America?

I'm not worried.

Look how far we have come since 2006, when not a single manufacturer even had "plans" to make an EV.

Plug in sales have grown from almost 0 in 2009, to over 50,000 in 2012, and will probably exceed 100,000 next year.

The adoption rate of plug ins is very consistent with all other new technology over the past 50 years.

Just because a few automakers made some stupid predictions about future sales numbers, does not mean EV sales are a failure...l

 

Really? No way is it free, that is a misconception. Tell that to my electric water heater, which is on a timer to kick on during "off peak" hours. The bill still comes each month, and gradually keeps rising even if hot water usage has been declining.

DBCassidy

 

And that is a misquote. If you have to misquote people to make your point you must have a pretty weak point.
And yes, I would say John exaggerated a bit as not everyone has off peak rates. My off peak rates are currently 5.7c/kWh which I consider almost free when compared to the cost of gasoline to drive the same distance (20-50 cents).

 

The EV can survive in the U.S., if people are given more education in the use of an EV. Also making it more easier to recharge is a plus to potential EV customers. Toyota is developing an induction type of recharger that the user would just park their EV over the pad for recharging. This sure beats plugging in!

DBCassidy

 

Practically free. Of course that's his area. Here it's anything from 9c to 11.5c if you have both TOU supply and distribution and raises the peak to 17.5c to 20.5c. Flat rate is about 14.5c. Incidentally here full peak is actually 7am-12pm and 4pm to 8pm because A/C demand isn't that high. 12pm to 4pm is shoulder for distribution. Weekends are off peak too, and weekday holidays too, at least for distribution.

I'm planning on going TOU, initally supply only if possible, because I believe that TOU should be compulsory. TOU distribution has an additional fee which puts me off and is ridiculous given we now have smart meters and online usage information. It might cost me a bit more, but I think I can do some more peak shaving with some loads. If I had a plug-in it'd be a total no-brainer as the charging would be off-peak and would almost double my electricity use.

 

Tesla Model S Production Now at 400 Units Per Week; 20,000 Annually

I think that if Tesla Motors can make this 35 000$ BEV, EV are far from over. I already began putting money aside just in case.

 

i'm pretty sure the point wasn't about pocketbook cost but rather electric generation/GHG cost.

 

It depends on what you compare it to....

If you compare the cost per mile of off peak charging to gasoline cost per mile, the term "nearly free" holds water... That is not the same as comparing water heating peak and off peak costs...

On that same subject.....

Off peak home charging is also nearly free compared to public charging as free public charging continues to fade away. Even at the low cost of $1 per hour, the cost per mile is as high as it is for gasoline. (Even more, if you don't get back to unplug once the vehicle is full.)

 

That varies by car and charger. A LEAF can only get 3.3kW in an hour. Which is about the cost of gas.
Other EVs can draw more power per hour, thus lowering the cost to less than gasoline.

 

True..... But it remains to be seen if fast chargers will charge $1 an hour. I suspect, the faster charging rate will also yield a higher charging cost...

 

If the experiences from Austin and San Antonio have any weight, charging stations will be a fairly low cost subscription model rather than a kWh or time based fee. The Austin subscription is $25/6 months. I have been using about 400kWh per month so it works out to about $0.01/kWh, a bit below generation costs perhaps, if I resemble the average subscriber. The subscription manager says I am using more than most subscribers. The subscriptions support the build out of additional wind generation.

Also, the public charging stations are "interuptable" loads since they are not charging by the hour. I'm not sure if they are dynamically throttled (KW) as well but I have noticed different power (KW) at different stations and at different times of the day. If they are dynamic, I suspect that they are set at the start of a charging session and maintain the KW power available for the duration of the charging session.

 

There is no misquote. free = zero (0) costs involved, which IS a misquote when stating a person can charge their EV for free. "Off-peak" charging rates are indeed less than peak demand times, but off-peak does not make it free at all. My point is vary valid. You are another person crowing about "free" electricity (again a fallacy). If you are happy with your off-peak charging, I am happy for you.

Just don't try to push over on other PC members that you charging is free - nonsense and does not hold water.

DBCassidy

Good point, as more people charge, higher costs will evolve (IE: supply and demand). Also, there should be not surprises that governments (IE:local. state, and federal) will be looking to offset the loss in gasoline tax revenues. One possibility: a tax based on miles driven per year. Revenue enhancements will be forthcoming in the near future for all of us.

DBCassidy

The bottom line is and will always be: the end users' wallet.

Enuf said,

DBCassidy

 

yes !

Demand response - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Nice....That is the first I've heard of that type of pricing...

What network is that which offers that type of subscription?

Most of the Blink and Chargepoint chargers in Arizona ( of which there are not very many yet) have flat hourly rates that charge you as long as you are plugged in, even if you are at a full charge....and we have nothing higher than level 2. The very first Level 3 fast charger in Picacho opened only a couple months ago....

 

ChargePoint network, but in partnership with the municiple utility. Non-subscribers still pay by the hour. There is some effort underway to have reciprocal agreements between different utilities/networks for subscribers. Remember the early days of cell phones and roaming between networks?

Also, if you are on a chargpoint network and have the mobile app, you can end the session without unplugging. I use that function so that the station reports that it is available. I leave a sign on my dash giving permission to unplug.

 

how is that different from an ICE vehicle

how is that different from the oil industry

 

Sorry if I was not clear. I am not talking about fast chargers, I am talking about chargers currently in place.

For example, if I recall correctly, many chargepoint chargers deliver 40 amps at 220 volts.
That would be capable of delivering about 9kWh.
In this case, the limiting factor becomes the car's onboard charger. The LEAF, as I recall has a 3.3 kWh charger. So it will draw only 3.3 kWh even though 9 is available.
In the case of charging stations that cost by the hour, a LEAF would get charged the same rate as a Tesla, even though the LEAF got 3.3kWh while the Tesla would get almost 9 in the same time.

This is just one example of how the pricing structure needs to evolve.

 

2013 Leaf & beyond have 6.5kW charging so it's not that bad. The Pip On the other hand is significantly slower @ 240v charging. Besides - even 240 volt charging won't get most people down the road as fast as they want to. What's really needed, is better quick charging infrastructure. That's why Japan (roughly the geographic size of California) has somewhere in the neighborhood of 1900 Chademo chargers. But in comparison to California ? ... we only have what .... maybe a dozen? It wouldn't matter if your ev only had a 80 or 100 mile range - if you could quick charge at a n available Q.C. station every 30 or 40 miles. If the EV infrastructure was subsidized as heavily as the oil industry? ... It would already be a done deal. But instead, we continue using carbon based fuel as though it will last for ever. And what do we do with all the extra natural gas that we get with fracking? We dump the price so we can start using it up quicker too. Good luck with that policy.

 

Unfortunately, quick charging ,50+KW DC, is not currently viewed as synergistic to a smart grid. It is also not recommended as a frequent charging strategy by the EV designers. The limited use, advocated by Tesla, for occasional city to city trips, at charging pavilions that use batteries and solar panels, is viewed as grid friendly.

Off-peak charging for a days worth of EV driving is very grid friendly.

 

Smart grid? UM, what is smart about our grid. Our grid is in horrible shape. What an irony. Oil supply / reserves are shaky and yet we live with that. But try to introduce mass quick charging - and all of a sudden we are worried about the flimsey grid as some kind of perfect reason to not build a quick charge infrastructure. We can actually improve grid quality but you can't improve oil capacity ... how do you reconcile that.
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