Will the Chevrolet Volt be a failure or a success?

Thanks for the correction on the Volt warranty, Sergio.

 

You do realize that "recharge during the day" and "recharge while having dinner" both mean near-peak or on peak charging, increasing strain on generation and electrical grids, don't you? Of course, for people on TOU rates (which really should be everybody) daytime charging would be more expensive anyway. But maybe it'll encourage more people to get solar.

 

Eh? Read: Banished from the H.O.V. Lane, Prius Drivers May Be First to Embrace New Plug-In Model - NYTimes.com
It contains information about the Volt as well:
"Rob Peterson, a G.M. spokesman, said in a telephone interview Tuesday that 2012 Volts, with the longer battery warranty would be available in California in the second quarter of next year. He added that G.M. had “no lack of confidence in the battery,” but needed to add some emissions hardware to the 2012 model before it could meet the criteria laid out by California regulators. He said that the H.O.V.-compliant Volt should be on the road “around the same time” as the Prius plug-in."

Also, the current battery warranty is 8 years 100k miles, not 80k like you stated.

Look, the Prius and PiP are fine cars, they offer plenty of advantages you can tout, without resorting to spreading FUD about the Volt and making up imaginary advantages (charging time). I just prefer people stick with facts, rather than massive exaggerations, it makes for better arguments.

As for your fancy graphs, it's not clear at all that the PiP is cheaper than the Volt in the < 15 mile range. We don't have the real world data yet on actual consumption for the production PiP (how much of that 4.4 kw-hr battery it is using, & how much you are losing to charging losses), nor the real-world range. The only number we have is the 87 mpge from Toyota, which we don't know how is computed, and if taken at face value suggests very slightly more expensive than the Volt, not cheaper. Cost differential also depends on range assumptions and electricity costs. I get 45 mile range on my Volt, not 35. And I pay effectively around 8 cents per kw-hr not 12. So in the ideal case I could save $1.50 per drive not $.50.

On a purely cost basis, taking into account initial sale price, no you aren't going to save money buying a Volt rather than a PiP, or a regular Prius. But you aren't going to save money buying a PiP vs. a regular Prius either, even with factoring in the extra options you get, that many people can live without easily. For that matter, you don't save money getting a Prius vs. a cheaper say Honda Insight. It's not about saving money with these cars, it's about how much one values using less gas, and how much one values other aspects of the car, like performance, handling, looks, NVH, cargo space, passenger room. Each car has different advantages, choose the ones that matter most to you, it's not the same for everyone.

 

If this is the cost of small Nimh replacements for Toyota Vehicles, how much is a 16Kwh replacement of Li-on? Hopefully less than the $17,000.

What is the average time/mileage for replacement (and cost) of hybrid battery packs? - Ask.cars.com

 

That is simply a matter of car efficiency, and we *do* know CS results on the same drive cycle: Volt 37 mpg, PIP 49 mpg. 49/37 = 1.32

3 * 1.32 = ~ 4.

We will talk once the car is available and we know how much these CA cars are going going to cost. I hazard a guess that the talk over emissions is smoke because I find it very unlikely that GM is going to improve emissions only on CA cars, yet that is the only market these cars will be sold to.

Take your best guess -- I say a $5000 - $7000 premium for the 150k mile warranty, IF GM prices the extended warranty by economics and not politics.

One always has to read between the lines when GM releases press statements.

 

I do not understand why did GM, or would anyone for that matter, build a car that is not ready for California?

Sagebrush is right, California is the primary market for cars like the Volt, PIP, Leaf, etc.....

 

^ I was unclear, I didn't mean CA is the only market, I was just reiterating Peterson's statement that the extended warranty car is for CA.

In general, these *EV cars will appeal to any HOV sticker market, and a 150k mile warranty will be a big deal because out of pocket battery replacement on a LEAF or Volt is just about the same as junkyard status. GM may be closed out of states where it cannot market low warranty and high warranty cars concurrently. I'm thinking of the DC metroplex area that is not a CARB compliant state.

The 150k Toyota warranty is GM's worse nightmare when it comes to the Volt.

 

Please read this.

 

That's a quick band-aid to stop the bleeding.

 

That's the same guy that mislead everyone to believe that Volt's gas engine does not turn the wheels until someone discovered the patent. He let everyone to believe that the gas engine was purely to recharge the battery as a range extender.

That fell apart when the patent shows a clutch could connect the gas engine to the wheels.

 

Yep, he is also the guy who trumpeted "40 miles a charge" for years, even when GM quietly increased the usable battery capacity from 8 to 10.4 kwh.

He does not lie, but he spins until everybody but fanbois are nauseated.

 

That challenges all recharging away from home scenarios. The handy start-time feature in PHV promotes longer battery life (soak wait), which would encourage off-peak at home anyway. But the taking advantage of peak wouldn't be so bad on those times when you actually use it. And there is an element of encouragement this early in the plug-in age still...
.

 

So you're comparing the pip euro number with the volt EPA one? I read on the pip forum that the volt does 50+ on the euro test. Why not compare like tests?

 

Its not a 20 mile sweet spot its a 35 mile superiority zone 94 mpge is better than 87 mpge. Back out around 100 miles the PHV will surpass the Volt, most trips aren't that long (see graph)

 

They are assuming Toyota is lying about the CD efficiency and it really most be triple digits at least

 

^^ No.
We are saying the 87 MPG(e) is a blended number. Triple digits for non-blended CD mode.

 

Honda sold 17020 of them over 6 years, so the about 2800 a year is not so far more then the Volt. The Volt has sold 3000 over less then a year, so actually more then the Insight per that time period.

 

I agree. The Prius PHEV will sell quite well. In CA, the marginal cost of the plug in is quite small after rebates for IV buyers. There are other states where that will be true as well. Toyota is capable of producing the plug-in in large quantities and has said 15000 a year in the US. That is around (but not exactly) the 1 in 10 figure.

 

All the PEVs allow you to set start or end time for changing.

Yes, people would normally charge off-peak when it's cheaper. However, they won't if it's cheaper to charge at work. They won't buy a car with range sufficient for their entire commute if they can charge at work cheaply. They won't buy a car with range sufficient for their entire commute and evening errands if they aren't on TOU rates.

The various EV trials have shown that owners are opportunistic in their charging and unless that opportunism is actively discouraged by making people pay the true cost, it will be built into EV ownership with a negative impact on electricity use.

Electrification proponents have argued that it wouldn't require increased grid or generation capacity. Well, that's true if people would stick to charging off peak. But, given that I'm repeatedly reading blase encouragements to charge at work or during peak hours on weekdays from PriusChat members who argue vehemently about the Prius' efficiency, I think it's pretty obvious that the electrification proponents are wrong.

 

GM originally claimed the 2011 Volt would meet the CA AT-PZEV requirements but they just narrowly missed the Carbon Monoxide emissions requirement. Having missed this emissions requirement, they chose to fall back to an 8 year and 100,000 mile battery warranty rather than the 10 year and 150,000 mile warranty that AT-PZEV requires. Or maybe they purposefully chose to just miss the CO emissions so they could wimp-out on the battery warranty. Who knows?

It is common for car companies to sell otherwise identically specified cars that meet SULEV requirements in CA and a few states that follow CA rules while simultaneously selling the same car under looser emissions standards in the rest of the country. Presumably, the primary difference is a more expensive catalytic converter. I haven't checked recently, but I recall that the price difference for the "CA emissions package" on cars typically was no more than a few hundred dollars.

For at least the first few years, I'm pretty sure Toyota followed this strategy with the Prius and perhaps some of their other hybrid variants. I recall them selling hybrids in CA with the strong battery warranty and selling with the weaker 8 year and 100,000 mile warranty elsewhere. I don't know whether they still do that today.