Will the Chevrolet Volt be a failure or a success?

Well, for those driving in that range who can regularly charge, including at work (work being a very scant minority of people though) the PHV may cover them for more than 15 miles/day of EV anyway. I drive much more than 15 miles/day, but a lot of it entails short trips from the house so I could charge up in between. In fact, I'd dare say the majority of our miles consist of either very short trips (which could be substantially on EV even with only a 15 mile range) and then long, multi-hour trips for which we'd need gas. We do 50 miles/day on our car (18k/year), but I would be very surprised if not at least half of those are within 15 miles of our house, so could be EV. Course the Volt would let even more of them be EV, since so many trips are short-distanced from the house, dropping kids off, going to work, etc.

 

Keep in mind that the numbers are for one way trip from home to work.

There are two big drops in percentage. The first is after 1-5 miles (29% -> 22% = 7% drop). The second is above 11-15 miles (17% -> 10%).

It is clear that PiP was designed to grab the low hanging fruit without compromising interior volume or a rear seat with minimal cost.

If you can recharge at work, PiP is good for 68% of the commutes.



Source

 

That is an assumption, perhaps an incorrect one. This is what Toyota said:

The overall fuel economy rating for the Prius Plug-in Hybrid increases to a manufacturer-expected 87 MPGe...

If you add up the distance of all five EPA test cycles, the total is 43.93 miles, not 15 miles that you indicated.

 

I was using the data from the Toyota PiP website which gives the three key numbers, CS range, CS economy and CD economy.

I may be misinterpreting the data, we'll see when the EPA numbers come out (before LA auto show maybe?), but I'm betting Toyota has a pretty good idea what those numbers will be and is warming us up to them. We'll see.

I do not believe there is a super double secret ultra high efficiency 50 mile blended mode range that has yet to be announced, but you might be right.

I also note on your graph that 92% of the commuters would have round trips in the range where the Volt would be clearly more efficient than the PHV (up to 70 miles).

 

Shhh ! Don't you know, only CS mode matters.

 

The sample EPA blended PHEV label had 8.5 kWh (usable capacity) battery with 50 miles blended range. If PiP has battery half that size, it should get 25 miles blended range.

Another data point I am coming from is the aftermarket conversion like Hymotion L5. It can get blended range of 30-40 miles from 5kWh. I am aware those numbers are not from J2841 so they are most likely optimistic.

92% - 68% = 24%

24% of the commuters will be able displace gasoline with electricity for 20 more miles (16th to 35th mile). After that, Volt will consume more gas than PiP.

That's 20 miles sweet spot (for Volt) that only matters to 24% of the commuters. The rest of the 76% can appeal to a midsize (PiP) that costs less, recharges quicker, longer warranty, lower tailpipe emission, less tax-payer dependency, access to HOV lane and mechanically simpler.

 

You can't mix and match stats for people who can recharge at work vs. those who cannot. 92% vs. 68% is for people who can recharge. So it would be 40-50 more miles on the Volt, not 20 in this case. And that's also assuming the PiP does achieve a full 15 miles, that 15 isn't some optimistic figure for certain ideal conditions. We'll have to see what people get when it comes out. I drove 45.5 miles on the Volt on single-charge yesterday, with 3 miles left on the meter. 35 EPA figure is definitely YMMV, as driving styles, climate conditions, terrain can vary a lot.

Also, probably way more people cannot charge at work than can. The number of people in the 15-40 mile range is larger than the 30-80 range.

The Volt consumes more gas, but since it ran on electricity longer, the breakeven for total fuel costs can be anywhere from 70-100 miles depending on relative electric/gas prices (much more if can charge at work), it's not like the Prius is instantly cheaper once the trip crosses 40 miles. And it's higher than that if you are only counting actual gas consumption not total costs.

You've really got to drop the stupid "recharges quicker" argument. It doesn't recharge quicker. It "goes from empty to full" quicker. But it doesn't get you more EV miles per amount of charging time. Getting full quicker is not an advantage. If you are recharging at home or at work, shorter time until full doesn't help you at all, since it's full by the time you have to leave and that's all one really cares about. Even if it's not completely full yet, the car still drives, it's not like it stops you from going unless it's full. It's an advantage, not a disadvantage, to let the car continue to fill while it's parked, not reach full in a third of the time & just sit there plugged in but not doing anything while it could be charging up more.

It's fine to argue the smaller battery cuts costs and preserves some extra cargo & passenger space, those are legitimate advantages. But repeating "recharges quicker" as an advantage repeatedly is just totally silly.

As for the warranty/emissions/HOV lane issues for California and states who follow CARB, there are reportedly plans for the Volt to match the PiP in those areas, probably around the same time or slightly before the PiP comes out.

 

Assumptions:
Premium Fuel 3.7
Regular Fuel 3.6
Volt CS MPG 37, EV range 35 miles, 3 miles a kwh
Prius CS MPG 49, EV range 15, 4 miles a kwh
12 cents a kwh

 

Yep, the graph shows Volt's advantage on trips between 15-35 miles, the 20-mile sweet spot that USB stated a couple of posts ago.

 

I did not mix them up. It was only for one trip. The same trip back home would be the same story if you can recharge at work.

The bottom line, Prius PHV does recharges faster. If Volt charges the same duration as Prius PHV, Volt will burn more gas. Volt needs to recharge longer to avoid 37 MPG on premium gas.

Is longer recharge time advantage or disadvantage? It depends on individual. For you, longer recharge time doesn't matter. If someone recharges 1.5 hours with L2 charger every 15 miles, Volt's bigger battery would be disadvantage.

 

Right, because there are L2 chargers everywhere, and people really are going to be driving 20 minutes, charging for 1.5 hrs, then driving another 20 minutes, instead of just driving 40 minutes straight to their destination. And because there are tons of people who get home from work, eat & sleep for a total of 3 hours, and then head right back to their 20-hr per day job, and don't have time to fully charge it, and thus would be better off with the 12 MPG boost from the PiP. Your hypothetical disadvantages of the longer recharge time OF A BIGGER BATTERY just don't apply to anyone in the real world. Even if a person did want to do 15 mile hops with 1.5 hr charges in between, the Volt can do that just as well, still not burning any gas.

Your argument is completely ridiculous. Stick to your stronger ones, trying to hold onto this one is just loony.

 

Stephent, there are people with an hour commute for 15 miles distance. A commute with 15 miles or less is the group that represents the majority (68% per the graph). For this group, if they can charge at work, a plugin with more than 15 miles range is just a waste (dead weight that costs more and poor gas mileage penalty).

Volt has good things going on. It drives better and accelerates faster. It also has a sweet spot where it can be operated cheaper than a midsize Prius PHV. When you sell it back, you have to find the buyer that matches the same sweet spot and willing to spend more for "sportier" ride while ok with the smaller interior and one less seat. That's going to be tough.

Regarding the chargers, there aren't too many L2 chargers now but the numbers will just multiply in the future. A typical life of a car is 10 years so think of how many more chargers will be available in 3,5,7 years.

3 hours charge for every 15 miles on a regular plug should work great too. You drive into work. Charge it 3 hours and go out for lunch. Come back and charge it more before leaving work.

In the weekend, go to a movie. Charge it for 2 hours, get 10 miles range. Go to dinner and charge it for an hour, get 5 more miles range. Etc.

I understand we should be comparing the situation now but the ownership experience should also consider the future where many public chargers will favor the smaller battery pack.

BTW, I put aside my emotions from the discussion. Calling names is not going to be constructive.

 

I really think the problem is you guys are trying to figure out how to make the current generation of electric cars work for everyone.. They will never work for everyone. You really need to do a little bit of planning, and forethought when going to work/running errands when you have an electric car. I would have to say most of the population is not ready for that. I actually burned some gas in my Volt yesterday so I will be the first to say it drops your fuel mileage big time. Drove approx 37-38 miles on electric, and another 33 or so on gas. Dropped my average for the drive to 56mpg (would have continued to plummet as I kept driving). So in a 71 mile drive the mpg on the Volt dropped to the same mileage that I get out of my 2011 Prius. So will the plug in Prius be better for longer commutes. I most certaintly say yes. I think the problems the PiP will face though is that it is still a Prius, and in all honesty to get the type of mileage that I or some of us get requires a bit if trying/caring to get the rated numbers. Those that use the A/C, floor it to get to the next red light, and speed are going to see lower numbers no matter which car you buy. You see it here on PC with people posting mid to high 30's to mid 40mpg's.. I think the price point will shoo a lot of people away into a regular Prius.. Just like Chevrolet has sold a lot of the Cruze, but very few Volt's... At the moment plug in cars are more of an idea with a small group of folks like us willing to make the sacrifices to implement them into our daily lives.

 

This is true. However, at this point in time, there are way more people who do not have a place to charge at work than those who do. It will take years for this to change, quite possibly more than the typical first ownership timespan of this initial generation of plug-ins. Also, that survey only covered commuting distance, it didn't factor in after-work travel for errands or to recreational activities. Extra battery is useful for that, if the commute itself would drain a 15-mile battery.

But in any case, the disadvantage is in the cost, space, and weight of the excess battery. It is not in the charging time which you keep repeating. At no point have you shown charging time to be a disadvantage, because in real life people have time to charge large batteries at night.

There are certainly some people who care about the fifth seat. But there are plenty who don't. Probably more people care about the fifth seat than actually should, if they think about how often they really have been utilizing theirs. Certainly if one had say exactly 3 kids + spouse to cart around, and no other vehicle, the Volt isn't for them. But really for most people, you find that either 4 is enough, or 5 isn't enough. If your group happens to have 6 people, you have to take two cars and the situation resolves itself up until you have 9. With the 10th person, are you saying out of the # of adults in that group there aren't 2 with 5-passenger vehicles? Personally, if I happen to be in a group of 5 people that want to go somewhere together, I'll just get someone else to drive.

As for the interior space, you do get a little more cargo space, and a bit more leg & head room in the back. But how often do you really use this? Vast majority of Prii I see on the road have one person in them. And I don't see them packed to the gills in terms of cargo. Really only a small percentage of items that one might want to carry would fit in a Prius but not into a Volt. If it's too big, you probably get the item delivered in any case, or borrow/rent a truck/van. Cargo space only needs to be big enough to handle a person's normal Costco runs, and the recreational activities they are going to want to use the car for, not having another vehicle for that purpose. Just like the Volt has excess battery not useful for some people, the Prius has excess space not useful for some people. I posit that there are more people who would utilize extra EV range often enough to make it worthwhile, than who would utilize the extra space.

It favors the smaller pack not because of the charging time, but because you can get away with the smaller pack to get your cost/space. But many public chargers is still quite some time away. Furthermore, these public chargers are only useful when you can charge up for say at least an hour. If you are running errands where you go to one place, grab something that takes 10 minutes, then off to another destination some distance away, that 10 minutes doesn't help you a whole lot. Nor does a public charger at your destination let you avoid gas use if the destination was > distance than your initial battery range. Also, some of these public chargers, although many free initially, may start charging gouging rates to charge up that one may not wish to pay vs. their home charging rate. There have already been reports of this.

A Volt lets you cover 40 miles of local errands without gas, without having to intersperse 5 hrs of charging during those errands to remain gas free. People have the hours to charge the Volt while they sleep, before they set out. They often wouldn't have the hours to charge them while they are actually running the errands, and would end up burning gas.

 

Nope, not even close.

For every 1 Volt, it's 40 Cruze.

For every 1 plug-in, it will be around 10 regular.

Let's not forget the much lower plug-in MSRP either.
.

 

Since those activities typically take place after dinner, it's not like people won't have an opportunity to recharge in the meantime.
.

 

Here is the same data as above, organized to show from a Volt owners viewpoint how much each trip costs more or less in fuel than the same trip in a PIP.

Less than 15 miles or more than 50 miles: The PIP costs less per mile fuel. Between those numbers the Volt costs less in fuel/mile, with the best result at 35 miles where the Volt fuel was 52 cents less for the trip. So an IDEAL Volt owner saves about $15 a month in fuel costs vs the PIP.


Negative number: The trip in a PIP costs more

 

Looking at the math and the added standard options over a regular Prius; a no-brainer!

http://priuschat.com/forums/toyota-...s-non-plugin-w-same-features.html#post1392099

 

Nice reply.

I enjoy making graphs as much as the next guy, but to tell the truth this is all noise to mask the larger question: how soon after the Volt 80k mile battery warranty runs out is the car headed to the scrapyard ? I'll guess not much, given GM's inability to compete in the HOV sticker market.

 

Volt owners should worry should they ever want to sell their used Volts. How much would a used 3 or 4 year old Volt worth approaching 100,000 miles on the odo with the next buyer facing a car without the battery warranty and possibly more than $10,000.00 battery replacement and Labor.