Will the Chevrolet Volt be a failure or a success?

I totally agree. A short range BEV makes more sense than a $45k super hybrid that pretends as an EV.

gwmort has another long range hybrid in the household. Yet, he felt a $45k super hybrid is the future, even though Leaf is a better choice for achieving his goal.

This shows the power of fear (range anxiety) marketing.

 

In gwmort's defense he has posted that both he and his wife travel on the same day routes longer than the LEAF range, so he felt compelled to have two ICE cars. The Volt was his compromise EV (ish) car.

Anyway, gwmort is an EV fan. His decisions have very little to do with EV as a rational national energy policy aimed towards environmental, economic, and national security issues. The Volt as a national goal is a joke only Volt fanbois do not get.

 

Back to your point Dennis,
Yeah, it seems obvious that efficient 15-20 mile EV PHVs and 50-70 mile EVs will accommodate a huge swath of driving demands; particularly when Americans learn to be a wee bit flexible in how they handle the other 0.5% of their needs, and workplace charging is common. This approach also has the redeeming feature of cars that have prices that more than 1% of the population can (or should) afford.

 

I'm not suggesting cold turkey, I am talking about incremental steps. Hybrids were a first step, PHEVs, are the next step and EVs the one after that. If we don't start taking the steps now a "cold turkey" will be forced on us when the supply runs out.

You know looking at your post again you seem to be saying exactly the same thing I am: hybrids are the first step and blending in electricity is the next.

Every car has compromises, whether they are or are not to much for any individual is what they should base their purchasing decisions on.

Toyota resisted going to Li batteries well after the technology was ready, in part because of their huge investment in NiMh. I seriously doubt they'd be releasing the PHV at all now if not for the Volt. Everything that moves the electrification ball forward is good. A rising tide lifts all boats.

 

READY includes being AFFORDABLE

Clearly, lithium based batteries still do not meet that Toyota criteria. Yet, they will be introducing both a plug-in & cordless using a lithium pack.
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Because they are now trying to keep up.

I don't doubt the same thing will happen to GM. When the next big advance comes they'll be pretty committed to the present tech and unable to adapt quickly. Its the downside to "economies of scale".

 

So... your claim is that GM isn't struggling with the same thing right now?
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Only Toyota can answer the question about the battery chemistry they selected for the Prius .... but I am well satisfied that the decision was based on sound engineering facts. While no expert, I suspect (from my readings) the current Prius battery is ideal for the situation (costs, size, reliability, longivity, repeated charging and discharging and etc.) Why place a more costly, battery in a vehicle that cannot take advantage of the capabilities. With a different scenerio, I am equally sure Toyota will utilize the best chemistry available for that situation.

Said another way .... While no one has specifically said as much, I do not believe that Toyota stuck with the current chemistry because they were .... foolish, unwilling to try new chemistry, unaware of other options, or the result of poor engineering. Why throw good money after bad ... especially when the current chemistry is performing so well with the current need .... and doing so well beyond the life expectancy of most aitomobiles. I have too much respect for Toyota's design and engineering team.

Not to be perceived as a negative, or a hope ..... but it will be interesting to see how the battery situation "shakes-out" when the Volt and Leaf have 100,000 + miles on them.

 

I agree completely, but you have to love the spin. GM must be using a bad chemistry because toyota says they are not ready. We do know that GM, Ford, and hyundai have chosen to go with LGs various chemistries. We do know that toyota produced batteries that they said were not ready. We know that they have changed chemistries at least once. We do not know what the changes are/will be when the prius battery pack is released, but since they are not shipping I assume they are still working on it.

There is also a massive investment in PEVs Nimh capability. So there is financial incentives not to change and retool to a better technology until forced by the competition.

Yes we will not know until then. But until then I would not assume that toyota's yet to ship battery pack is technically superior.

 

^^
Right. Li-x can only be shown to superior to NiMH in a HV application after 10 years of use. GM's use of Li-x in a PHV is an apples to oranges comparison.

I expect to see NiMH in the HV for years to come, even when Toyota is using Li-x in PHVs. Not only is NiMH uber reliable, it is relatively cheap.

 

Honda said that they are going to introduce in 2012, a plug-in hybrid in the next Gen Accord using an 8 Kwh Lithium good for 15 miles with a 2.0 engine. No other information or details are available, except for demo video on their website.

 

^^ Good for them. It has taken a looong time for Honda to find a successful HV/PHV strategy.

 

NiMH is easy to produce. The material cost may be higher.

Not all NiMH are equally reliable. It also depends on how it is used. See the Honda IMA battery story.

Saturn Vue Green Line used NiMH battery also. They had internal leaks resulting in early death.

Therefore, we can't assume all Lithium battery and how the car use it, are all the same.

 

BTW, has anybody seen the shoebox size of the Lithium battery in the 2012 Civic!


HybridCars.com Gets 68.7 MPG in 2012 Honda Civic Hybrid | Hybrid Cars

 

I think the caption was misleading, as I posted at http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-h...7mpg-in-hybridcars-testing-4.html#post1310137, it seems to span the width of the rear seat. Or, if you look further down in the article you cited, it sure is a lot larger than what he's holding. He's only holding a portion of the pack.

 

Is success defined by funny advertising?

I'm quite sure GM wasn't intending on being humorous, but I was laughing hysterically when I heard Tim Allen as what that "gas cap thing" was called... followed by video showing 18 different examples.

It's called a GAS HOLE, obviously. :rofl:
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Toyota's problem with lithium batteries is that they don't support the currents required to use a "little" battery, even at a ridiculous 63lbs/kWh (100lb/kWh usable). A123 has a 30C cell, unless you want it to last even 300 cycles, in which case it's a 20C cell. No clue how low you have to go to get to 10 years...

John, still waiting for your criticism of Nissan for lying so blatantly about range, even going so far as to pull a switch-a-roo on battery charging.

 

I don't see how you used that thread to arrive at "500-600/mo". There was only one person paying north of $500 in that thread.

Curious, I checked Toyota directly using my zip.

Oh, dear God. You're criticizing VOLT lease payments?

Directly from Toytoa with the same terms as the Volt: 2500 due at signing, 36mo, 12000 miles, 720+ FICO:

Prius II: $285
Prius III: $299 ($342 w/NAV)
Prius IV: $357 ($414 w/NAV)
Prius V: $380 ($520 w/Advanced Tech Package!)

That's WITHOUT DMV/taxes, just like the Volt (and every other car in the world) is quoted. So, for out of pocket equivalent to a base Volt, you can get a III w/NAV or a base IV.

Oh, and mats are included with the Volt.

 

I took the outrageous step of adding the down payment to the monthly payment.

Quoting Toyota Prius prices after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami will not earn you brownie points.

 

Wow, did they really have a massive price jump after the disaster? How much lower were they before?