Will the Chevrolet Volt be a failure or a success?

This time last year, expectations were very different. Volt was expected to take the market by storm and crush the hybrids.

Downplay has been the approach since the reveal of the much higher than hoped price.

Damage control is likely what will come next week, following this release of sales for the month.
.

 

I'm thinking Toyota has been much smarter in not playing up the PHV prius prior to the release of its much higher than hoped for price.

 

^^
Toyota has not uttered a word about price to the best of my knowledge. I may hope the PHV costs $12k, but Toyota has not given me reason to think this will be the price.
That is a whole lot different than Volt fans regurgitating GM press releases for years, only to find out reality is way different.

Toyota will have no damage to control no matter what the PHV pricing turns out to be, because they have not put their foot in their mouths. In fact, so far as I know Toyota as a matter of policy does not release prices until the car can be ordered.

 

You sure were drinking some GM kool-aid if you believed that. I can see why you feel so betrayed. Seriously, did you guys really believe 1/2 the crap that was coming out of a bunch of "branding" MBAs who don't know which side of a screwdriver to use? I wasn't paying close attention but it was obvious that two complete drivetrains, one of which included a $10k (at least) battery, was never going to be cheap. I would not be surprised to hear that they're losing money on each car, much like Toyota was for years on the Prius.

Long term, the approach is never going to work unless batteries cost $10/kWh or something else ridiculous - cheap enough to fit in the margin gained by not having a multispeed transmission and using a slightly smaller engine.

Short term, it's pretty cool and works very well.

 

I saw a Volt in person today, the first. Couldn't get in it as it was all locked up. I will say that for having four seats the two in the back were nice looking and I am sure would be nicer for passengers than Prius seats (bucket style).

 

John was not talking about *his* expectations, but those of the vast majority of Volt fans yapping on Volt boards.

 

It wasn't me.

I was one of those furiously blogging to document the comments being made then, in disbelief of the enthusiasts actually believing the propaganda. So when the fallout came, I'd be well prepared to help prevent them from falling for the hype again.

Not even having a definition for "success" was a dead giveaway that trouble was coming...
.

 

The triple-disaster in Japan is a factor which makes price is a bit of a wash now. Oddly though, it could equate to a benefit. If they have to rebuild anyway, why not invest heavily in their future? It makes sense at this point to favor hybrids.

And I do find it interesting how you avoided mention of an actual price... I've already stated a $5,000 premium is the goal. That means roughly $7,500 within the tax-credit availability for the plug upgrade, with respect to the package it come in.
.

 

Actually one exec from Toyota's Department of the Obvious did say it wouldn't cost more than $10k extra.

 

I stated in the PHV threads that my guess is you won't see an MSRP below $36,500 in 2012. Either way its all just conjecture for now. Between Volt prices coming down with more standard equipment becoming optional and Toyota milking the initial launch market that'll pay for extra toys (and the larger EV tax credit based onthe size of the battery), I'd wager that you'll be able to get a Volt cheaper than a PHV in 2012 (perhaps not comparably equipped but that part seems to fall by the wayside when you guys are talking about $10-15k price gaps).

 

Toyota has the flexibility of packaging. GM has repeatedly stated they wouldn't "cheapen" Volt to reduce price. So basically, they've backed themselves into a corner that will take more than just a year to get out of.
.

 

The 2012 model year changes have already been announced, GM took many thousands of dollars worth of electronics and made them optional, which will make a "cheaper" build possible. I believe the comments you were referring to dealt with substantive changes to the design, they won't make a 20 mile range version or anything foolish like that.

Mark my words, the cheapest price you can get a Volt for will be less than the cheapest price you can get a PHV prius for (at least for a while at the launch of the PHV)

 

Immediately subtracting the tax-credit for a cash-purchase value is a bit misleading, since many will have to finance... including the tax-credit amount. I'm not into bragging rights. Couldn't care less, in fact.

SALES are the measure of progress. Got quantities predictions?
.

 

Yeah, but you have to admit those "thousands of dollars" are cheap to the OEM. They're expensive options, sure, but I don't think they cost GM much at all.

My prediction: the cost of the car will hardly come down but the top end (with those options but back in) will go up.

I think it's a crappy move. You guys think the car should be cheaper. I think it should be better. Go read mynissanleaf to find complaints about cheap materials and poor workmanship from trying to build to a price. If GM wants this thing to work, decontenting right at the beginning is going to screw them. I got mine precisely because it didn't feel like a typical (at least 5 years ago - the last time I was in one) every-penny-squeezed-out GM car.

But I have mine. Not my problem.

 

I'm predicting 40,000 non-fleet sales of the Volt.

I agree mfennel with your sentiment. I'm very happy with where the price is and what I got for what I am paying. I wouldn't give up the Bose speakers, but I get almost no use out of the hard drive and DVD player, so I think there are decisions individual buyers should be able to make to get and pay for just what they want.

 

The sportiness, etc. is highly subjective and I'm not sure I can adequately quantify it. Though I can agree I would give up an extra middle seat in consideration for EV driving.

In my state, the Volt will be taxed on the purchase price on the vehicle registration. It's called the vehicle license fee, but it's really a property tax. Insurance will be partially based on the purchase price as well.

To be perfectly honest, I'm not quite an early adopter. I also don't need 5 seats. I appreciate your enthusiasm for this product and the willingness to put your money where your mouth is.

There's not an adaquate payback period for the Volt for me. Electricity is quite expensive in my state. I don't know if I want to choose charging my car, or running the house's A/C in the summer. Electricity can get over $0.30 per kwh.

In fact, the payback period of a Prius II vs something such as (a prior gen) Hyundai Elantra is over 150,000 miles. That was a bit of a personal decision, because I don't want to drive a Elantra. The Prius was a good decision for me, even with the controversy surrounding Toyota at the time of my purchase.

First the Prius gives great gas mileage, it puts a payback period within reality. Secondly, Toyota is legendary for reliability (IMO, no matter what anyone may say), and I want this car to last. Thirdly, it had enough appeal for me not to mind driving it, or driving other people around (despite other people not wanting to be caught dead in it).

I didn't want the (prev. gen) Elantra because it's an economy car, plain & utilitarian. My perception of the Prius is that on the upfront, it's a step above, but puts the economy into the back end. So that was great for me.

In my state, a Prius is just smart. The perception is it is a smart purchase. I've never had a person say, "what a stupid buy". There are many of them, but I don't ever mind seeing another one.

This is only my daily driver. I happen to own other vehicles. I've never had a Toyota that lasted fewer than 200k miles. Believe me, those cars never needed a major repair.

Driving on electricity has great appeal for me, but unfortunately my state prices other things into the electricity to make the payback period for a Volt untenable. The Prius PHV does not even make any sense for me (I have posted this in a PHV thread in the past). But I think it's good to stick it to the oil companies if you can and are able to. My decision making process may change in the future, but this is how I quantify things at the moment.

 

What about the media greenwash still happening?

For example, this nonsense published today:

"You’ve seen the Chevy Volt in the news for the least three years, hearing about the battery that gets you more than 50 miles before taking a single slurp of gas."
.

 

Members who recently filed their taxes can correct me if I am wrong. I did a little research for the Prius plug-in tax credit. It is much less, but nonetheless the same process.

My understanding is unless the Volt is leased, the full amount $41,000 is paid including the $7,500 dollars. It is a tax credit, not a rebate/refund. If you don’t owe federal taxes or did not have sufficient income for the year, you will not benefit from the tax credit. The credit can only bring your tax liability down to 0, but not into a rebate. So if you only owe $1500 in taxes hypothetically, you will not be given a check for the difference and $6000 of the credit will be sort of wasted.

 

The technical term is that it is a non-refundable tax credit (it works how you explained it).

 

There is one big difference between the Plug-in Prius and Volt... Branding!

Toyota can make a hybrid that runs on ground babies and it will outsell the Volt and be more reliable (whether just in perception or reality is another debate).

There are a few people that buy the best car on the market not caring about make. Then there are those that will not buy brand X because _______.

I work with someone who will not buy anything that was not made in the US. He drives a GM that I know for a fact was assembled in Ontario, Canada but since I am from there I won't bring it up.

My family wont buy any GM, Ford, or Chevy offering even if they were "better". Just like many wont buy a Honda, Toyota, Nissan because they are Japanese, and will only consider Audi, and Mercedes.

So there may be some people who chose a Volt over the Prius because they deemed it better just as there will be some people driving the Prius over the Volt because they deemed it better. But I think most people will not cross the Japanese, Big-3, or German boundaries. So Volt and Prius are non-competitors.