Will the Chevrolet Volt be a failure or a success?

except when they positively claimed 300 mpg.

 

Hmmm, the Prius was widely denounced as a niche car with limited appeal, underpowered with expensive batteries that need to be replaced for about the first 6 years it was produced. In 2001, the first full year of sales, less than 16K were sold in the U.S. I'm not defending the Volt, just saying we need to remember where the Prius started from. If they can improve it and lower the cost, they will have something that can potentially become mainstream like the Prius. It's a tall order, but theoretically still possible.

Are you referring to the EV1? Toyota wasn't far behind in their lack of support for the RAV4-EV and joining in the other automakers' lawsuit against California to end their production requirements of EVs and alternative powered vehicles.

No argument there.

I still don't think anybody was planning on buying the Volt with the intention of using it like a gasoline hybrid. The early stories were that the gas engine (serial hybrid at that time) would be more of a "limp-home" mode without full power and full speed. The intent all along was that the Volt would be used as an electric vehicle, but without "range anxiety".

You want an American gas-powered car that gets 40 MPG, you need to go to Ford. Yes, GM still doesn't cover that demographic, but my argument is that the Volt wasn't ever intended to be that car. They spent billions (at least supposedly something over a billion) on fuel-cell technology, thinking that would be their future, but as the knight said, they chose poorly.

 

Prius sold 17 thousand cars in its first full-year (1998), and 300 units late 1997 (Dec).
This should be a number to compare with. If less, the big GM has failed.

Not mentioning Prius NHW10 was, at his time, the most incredible car, leading technology as no other has even tried before (thank you 1000 Toyota engineers for this amazing car!). They had no proven batteries knowledge, design, inverters, automotive electric motors and computer management to match the two powers to copy or look for in their competition.

As for RAV4EV lack of support, Toyota was not to blame. I've read somewhere that it was against their will to drop it.

 

GM isn't in the same position though. They did not start from scratch. They already had extensive motor & battery experience even before starting the Volt project.

Gas was dirt-cheap back then too.
.

That's because a no-plug model can't/won't be offered.

Reduction of the battery-pack to just a tenth the size would significantly reduce price. You'd end up with a Volt that cost less, weighed less, and wouldn't ever have to be plugged in.
.

 

First I want GM to succeed, as their failure can taint the entire industry. Oldsmobile V8 engine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Second, I think that like "The Producers" GM intends that it fail. It will be crippling to GM if they sell all that are demanded. To prevent this they have set minimal production runs for at least the first two years, and have their executives alienating all their prospective customers.

The worst possible outcome will be if Joe 6 Pack thinks only the Japanese can do Hybrids, like he thinks only the Germans can do Diesels.

 

I would only consider it a success if it becomes a vehicle for the masses, sells in respectable numbers, and turns a profit for GM. I know this will not happen overnite. Unfortunately, I don't think it will ever happen.

 

I find some of the criteria listed amusing.

I'm less interested in individual brands than the plug-in industry as a whole. I hope it succeeds since we need that for all the reasons we keep talking about.

It is also interesting to see which type of plug-in hybrid will see market place success - parallel or series ?

 

Hmm...that's why I say Prius "has become" not "was". Still I would say Toyota's attitude in regards to Prius even at it's genesis was significantly more supportive than GM's.

I also am not saying The Volt couldn't become significant. However...if I was a betting man....

 

I wonder if it would have come in under $30k if the battery was half the size, 20 mile range? Probably would have had a full rear seat too! Ah well, if wishes were fishes...

 

If every brand can repeat or even outdo Toyota's success, we'll have 11% penetration rate in 10 years. We won't be at 3% as of now because majority of sales are by Toyota. Toyota shouldn't carry the electricification burden of the entire industry.

Neither. A mixture of both seems to be the best approach. Taking advantages of both parallel and series in one simple and elegant power split design does the most with less. Less mechanical complexity and smaller battery yet cut the most gasoline consumption. Toyota and Ford plugins use this design.

 

Agreed.

For people who think it would be better with a smaller battery, that's probably true, but just wasn't in the cards. GM has been touting it as a (range-extended) electric vehicle - a leap-frog technology - not a plug-in hybrid, just to separate farther from the hybrids already in the market, so I don't think they're marketing/sales people wanted a smaller battery. Average consumers already think 40 miles on battery only isn't very much. Personally I think 13 miles is great, and would eliminate gas from 80% of my trips.

 

I'm not sure how people can be still predicting failure, unless they are so tied to their bad old opinion that they need to repeat it, no matter how wrong it sounds.

The volt seems to have garnered all the auto awards including car of the year and one of the 10 best. The first 2 years of production seem to be sold out representing over 60,000 cars. It also has helped GM IPO at a valuation that will help pay back some of its creditors. It also with the leaf garnered the cover of a bussnesweek, and took much of the attention of the Detroit auto show.

Only if you use criteria of conventional car sales or it needs to beat the prius in everything can you get close to failure. Even here it does quite well.

In the first 2 years the volt is estimated to sell as many cars as the prius did in 5. I do not think a slower ramping of a production line designed during bankrupcy represents failure, but hey you are entitled to your opinion.

The question is more about how fast the plug in market grows, not if it will grow, and if it will steal sales from other hybrids or conventional cars.

The system in the volt has been shown to be parallel/serial with software selecting serial most of the time.
Toyota, ford and hyundai, all also will be producing parellel/serial phevs. The difference will be battery pack size an software. My instincts say a 20-25 mile ev range is the likely winner.

We know from nissan that 50% of leaf prospects are prius drivers, so the question really is how many new drivers will be in bev and phev cars. 10% by 2025 is my guess, with the majority of hv being phev. Most other new vehicles by then will have auto start/stop so idling will be a thing of the past.

 

Ignore the idealists (like me),
If the Volt cannot *at least* match TCO of Prius it will fail in the mainstream marketplace.

It is that simple, because EV for the sake of EV is not a mainstream desire.

 

The Prius does not meet the TCO of a geo metro. The metro was a failure. Better selling vehicles like the F150 and camry do not sell on TCO. You need to find a new reason to hate the volt.

PHEV is a small niche. GM will likely lose money in the first few years as toyota did with the prius. It may help rehabilitate the black halo GM garnered with the killing of the ev1 and promotion of the hummer. Prius did more for toyota in selling other toyotas than it ever did for profitability of the car. I doubt toyota made a dime on the car prius until 2007, or that it ever made sense in the US from a value point of view until the Gen III. Otherwise the price compared to similar cars never paid for the saved gas.

 

AG has a point. It is not just the TCO but also the value of the car. You can down-size to lower TCO but you'll get a shitty car.

Even if the Volt's TCO matches Prius', you still end up with a compact Volt. Therefore, Volt's TCO should be lower than the mid-size Prius.

 

Just to clarify. I'm not "predicting" either success or failure. And it does just depend on your P.O.V. as you point out, The Volt has already garnered accolades from the automotive press.

What I am saying, is that given GM's very limited release, and relatively high entry price, it almost guarantees that The Volt is not going to threaten Prius in the form of total units sold.

And I do think, eventually, probably inevitably real competition among Hybrids, EV's and the like will only come about once there is a baseline of established competitors and offerings.

Right now, I perceive The Volt as barely a fleshed out advertising campaign...more than a serious offering that a majority of people would consider purchasing.

Could that definition change over the course of the next few years or sooner? Certainly. I would have no problem if it did.

But until The Volt is produced and marketed in a manner that denotes that GM believes in it's capability of becoming anything more than a "speciality" niche vehicle, that they are primarily simply trumpeting as proof of their commitment to technology and advancement....then that is all The Volt will be.

 

Now, of course. 2 years later, when the new CAFE requirements are in full effect and gas has been over $3.49 (national average) for quite some time, the idea of plugging in will be no big deal... especially when available as a step-up model like with Prius.

Toyota's approach is great for business. They can heavily leverage current production to offer a reasonably price choice.

GM bet the farm on a single offering. They already said it doesn't scale up well. And with Volt not providing stellar efficiency & emissions in the first place, that's not a good formula.

Will all the variations really be compact-size only? How will profit be achieved with such a limited approach? For success, don't you need to sell lots of a product? Isn't the point to replace the current choice of guzzlers?
.

 

You are being dense. A Geo Metro does not approach the Prius in reliability or size or ride, and I am not even sure wins out in TCO.

A Prius beats the Volt in size and reliability, but apparently loses in driving dynamics for at least some people. Call the differences square, and TCO becomes the decider.

 

Interesting thread, I think there's basically a dupicate thread somewhere else in PC.

My 2cents: The Volt, as it is currently designed, is doomed. Not that it doesn't work well (at least, AFAIK and caveat being 1st year 1st gen). It is for a definite niche market - people who normally drive less than 30 - 40 miles per day and just need an occasional entended range on the ICE backup. For a lot of these folks, the EV range and ICE range are acceptable, even if the ICE efficiency is not as good as we'd like.

No, the real problem is the price. At $40k +, GM has effectively priced it out of a lot of people's justifable price range. Justifiable as in "the extra $20k is worth it for the gas savings." And personally, I don't envision GM lowering the price by very much. What I do picture, though, is that GM may sell the Volt for 2 to 3 years and then shut down the line. However, by that time that may be able to move the design into a new car line, whatever they choose to call it (maybe the Volt II ?). If they're smart, their next model will be priced competively with other EVs or PHEVs. The Prius PHEV will be a major hurdle for them to compete against..... either it will stir a real effort out of GM, or make them give up.

Vic

 

They tried with the two mode hybrid SUVs and Trucks. It failed due to the price and complexity. They did not come out with Gen2 two mode hybrids. Why? It look like they are going to discontinue it.

Here we have the history repeat but with the compact size car. It is expensive and complex. Will we see Gen2 Volt?