Will the Chevrolet Volt be a failure or a success?

Yeah, um, I realize that HowStuffWorks.com is normally the authoritative source on all things (ahem), but much of that is simply wrong. Opens the valve when the exhaust encounters back pressure? Huh? The valve is controlled by the ECU.
Heats up the fuel? The last thing the fuel mixture needs is to get hotter. It's getting compressed 10 to 1 or so. It gets all the heat it needs.

 

They started production about 2 weeks later than plan and have been building to plan. The reason the sales figures are lower than production is gm wants volts in show rooms to help sell other cars. They claim the dealers will have their cars by may, and then the production and sales figures should be about 1000/month and slowly ramp up. For 2012 the new plan is 4000-5000 /month. I'm sure the scarcity is planned as it reduces risk for gm, and allows it to drop production costs before increasing volume. The optimistic goal for 2013 is 10,000/month and the goal at launch was 4000/month. I'm sure we won't know for awhile what number it really will be.

 

yesterday's plan, anyway.

Production based on VINs is about 2700 thus far, over ~ 6 months.

 

Hey, you got me to read it. It seems well written for a high schooler. Definitely gets things wrong. Some old systems probably worked by pressure instead of electronics.

The whole concept of heating the fuel is strange. EGR makes cars more efficient and less polluting by effectively reducing the heating of gasses. The air comes in warmer so there are fewer molecules in the cylinder, it comes out cooler so their is less pollution. The differential temperature by the amount of gas is waste heat. The cooler combustion means there is less of a reaction to create NOx. Valving could be used to keep more exhaust gas in the cylinders but I don't think this is done in the prius or the volt. Late valve timing and EGR in the prius help reduce the pumping losses.


The Exhaust heat recovery is what helps the engine warm up. Spark timing and mixture also help the engine warm up.

 

You forgot the other part of the promise -- on 8 kwh. How does your arithmetic look now ? Shall I dig up GM blather how 25 miles AER is the lowest any Volt driver could possibly get as an outlier number ? What BS, when 25 miles is *average* AER in cold winter driving.
So ...
They hyped 200 wh/mile and delivered 280 wh/mile *in non-winter conditions.* Reality is 40% worse than hype.
GM babbled for *years* about 50 mpg on the ICE, not 37. Get your hype straight. Reality is 35% worse than hype.
They also said P-ZEV
They also said 'nicely under' $30k, although left room for people to be confused if that included the tax credit. Let's give GM the benefit of the doubt they were not trying to spin (hah!): Reality is 20% worse than the hype.

In EVERY metric GM delivered about 2/3rds of hype. At best.

They failed to deliver on 90+% of the hype.

As for Toyota, I can only remember them advertising 14 mile AER going back years. It is still 14 miles AER.

 

Big mess.

Try less drugs, tpfun...
I'll try more english.

1. Five seats not for everyone!... Next time a 3 seater Volt with a large batt, why not?

2. My "prediction" is based on MULTIPLE tests been done, with numbers in it. Not to say 5 car running in Portugal, one of them driven by a friend of mine.
If you haven't read any test, it is because you are a unfriendly user of this forum, always trying to get diagonal reads, and never reaching a clear conclusion. Hey, less drugs, remember?

3. I will give you a clue. If you don't see it at the shops, it is because it is still not ready to present it to a very enthusiastic market that has BOUGHT MILLIONS OF HYBRIDS so far. Did you see Toyota targeting MPGe for it? NO. But others have done it, and tests have proven they were wrong.

I can wait until you shoot the other arm?

 

Remember, some of us have every little detail documented in our blogs... and we can point out how incorrect those statements actually are, especially when... since perspectives changed just prior to rollout.

Toyota never promised 15 miles. That would be bizarre. Every aspect of their design is metric based. That's why the initial builds offered a rough capacity of 20km. The greater priority was price anyway, a stark contrast to GM's approach.

As for the MPG after depletion, it was 50 combined. Volt is way off the mark on that.

With respect to economies of scale, production cost won't drop anywhere near enough for Volt to achieve $30k by the time the credit expires. But for PHV, that's quite reasonable... again, since the design always placed such a high priority on price.

Lastly, what about all the green marketing? Making that ULEV rated engine cleaner will increase cost.
.

 

Well I don't want to get into trying to defend the hype, because close or not they didn't live up to it. I wish they had under promised and over delivered, but they didn't. However, if they had we'd have the same car and perceptions would be better, which I guess is the problem I have with using the hype to rag on the car.

 

^^ Not me. I'm ragging on the company. The car as you say, is what it is -- a nice purchase for you, a little for a lot of money to me.

 

I do want to respond to this.

EV buyers need a certain range. What that range is will vary buyer to buyer. The larger the range the more buyers will fall under its umbrella. If the Leaf had a 200 mile range right now, I'd have bought it. Less than 100 does not meet my needs. It does for some people which is why Nissan is selling them.

As far as I can see no EV that is priced within +/- $40,000 of the Volt has a 200 mile range. Until that changes the Volt will do fine.

 

When was the last time 5 sat in your Prius ?

Hey, you demand answers to your questions, answer mine.
What is your prediction on the performance of the future Prius PHV ?
Exactly which part of the word future do you not understand ? Are you the decision maker for Toyota ? If not, anything you say about the future Prius PHV is just a guess.

 

Also I must disagree with this statement, unfortunately the Volt ICE is first and foremost an electric generator. It only powers the wheels when the battery is already depleted and the car is driven more than 70 mph. The second clutch to make the connection for that little boost is ok, it helps the ICE get the job done without even larger batteries and motors, but it would be much more efficient if the ICE had beenbetter integrated and more optimized to help sooner and more often like the PHV Prius one will.

I think the serial hybrid approach in CS mode is generally a mistake and the Prius model is better there.

 

So many questions...

3 weeks ago.

Prediction or reality? Easy. 12 miles EV on less than 4kwh + 50MPG further
That is reading tests and chatting with PHV testers, about their real world usage.
Let's wait for EPA numbers.

Didn't understand the part of decision maker for Toyota...
IMHO, a 3 million hybrid seller has to have some knowledge on how to deal with their loyal customers. Don't you feel happy to be here in their forum - PC?

 

Amost
Because the leaf won't cover my ~75 mile weekly trip, I am better off with a ~200 mile range EV. And since the Leaf isn't available in MN yet, the primary EV will be a Model S.
However, we may just go with Model S and a Leaf. On the rare occasion we need to go further (2-3 times per year), we will rent a Prius.

John was asking who the market was for the Volt, and we are definitely in that market. Don't know for sure which way we will go. But since neither the Leaf, nor Volt are available locally yet, we also get some real world data while waiting.

 

Anybody see this yet:

Exhaust Notes - A Blog from MSN Autos - MSN Autos

"Kelley Blue Book has released its annual Top 10 Green Cars list, which looks to balance "safety, creature comforts and driving enjoyment" with fuel efficiency derived from modern EV, hybrid and plug-in hybrid technologies, as well as overachieving gasoline and diesel powertrains. In other words, KBB is ranking the best cars that are also ultra-fuel-efficient​, rather than resorting to straight fuel-economy number-crunching.

And the winners are:
1. Nissan Leaf: KBB calls this "the first all-electric car for the masses," and notes that not only is its reported fuel-efficiency equivalent of 99 mpg incredibly environmentally friendly, but that "recycled materials made from home appliances, old car parts and plastic bottles are used extensively throughout the vehicle."
2. Chevy Volt: If the Leaf was first, the Volt must have been second; KBB notes that each green vehicle serves a different set of driver needs and that the Volt "looks like a tasteful vision of the future -- inside and out -- and is one of the most fun to drive EVs we've driven so far" while delivering a fuel-efficiency equivalent of 93 mpg.
3. Toyota Prius: The longstanding green car of record. KBB appreciates that achieving excellent fuel efficiency in the Prius does not require an overhaul of driving habits, as with some other vehicles."

 

Depending on the exact situation it can connect in the ICE as low as 40mph. It does whatever is more efficient.

If you have the patience, Pamela Fletcher, a chief engineer at Chevy, goes pretty deeply into the details [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=an-VyIau-FM"]on this youtube video[/ame].

part 2:
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=343-NQKOvLg&feature=related"]YouTube - Chevy Volt Powertrain Deep Dive | Part 2[/ame]

 

I doubt Toyota will add $10k to cost over regular Prius just for adding essentially a LiIon EV / hybrid battery instead of regular NiMH. Sure, there's other changes to electronics/SW, but it's not going to be $10k more.

 

Some principles in engineering are that you are supposed to design/develop the best product at the best price and most efficient/beneficial for the customer. Man is it tough to see that in the Volt. I am keenly aware that super-expensive traction battery might need replacing after 8 years or so, and might cost something like $8k. And the $41k initial price to boot

I think GM might be hyping the sales and production forecasts just like they did the specs.

 

Yeah, because the premium powered gas engine is turning an electric generator which power the battery which feeds the electric motor which turns the gears to the wheels. Ooops, too many losses in the chain.

 

Its not so much the losses (which are part of it) but using the most efficient powerplant when it is most efficient to do so.