Will the 2012 be the same but with a plug-in option?

Oh we'll need to sacrifice a lot in order for the developing world to prosper. There is only so much resources to go around and we have been gorging on the bulk of energy, materials, etc.. Don't be ridiculous.

Electric cars are not impractical for the vast majority. Lots of studies and examples exist of EVs doing a good job of getting people around. And the technological breakthroughs you speak of already happened. Lastly, all we need a new business model to make the "no-compromises" transition complete. See Better Place.

 

If the EV-1 and RAV4 were in production for sale, it will cost as much as the Tesla.

 

You mentioned 5-mile trips, giving me the impression you were speaking of your normal trip. Note please, that after the battery on a PHEV is depleted, the battery is dead weight, so a PHEV is an improvement over a hybrid only if most of the driving is within the PHEV range. A 5-mile PHEV becomes counter-productive beyond about 10-mile trips.

I once thought a Volt (if they ever built it) would be great, because I could do my city driving on electric, but still drive to Canada in the summer. But once some realistic mpg numbers started coming out, I realized that I'm much better off driving my EV in town and my non-PHEV Prius for the road trips. Apparently the non-PHEV 2010 Prius will be even better for road trips, though I cannot justify trading up for as little as I would drive it.

We have been living in a fool's paradise of insanely cheap energy. That day is coming to an end. The sooner we begin to make sacrifices, the easier the transition will become. Is our quality of life better now that people live an hour's drive from work? Is urban sprawl beneficial? Many of the "sacrifices" won't be sacrifices at all, and much of our short range transportation could be electric with no sacrifice at all.

And at least one aspect of the "problem" with EVs today is that a corrupt government allows a corrupt oil company subsidiary (Cobasys) to prohibit car companies from using NiMH batteries in electric cars. Electric cars will never be economical as long as oil companies are allowed to bar anyone from using battery technology.

 

For the developing world to prosper takes a lot more than our sacrifices. Resources are there, it's a matter of properly using them.

Show me one electric car that meets current car safety regulations and has a reasonable price.
If the technological breakthrough has happened, where are the cars that use it?

 

The battery in any hybrid is dead weight. However, a larger battery can also hold more power from regeneration. On a long downhill out west, my battery gets fully charged after about one mile. Besides, adding a couple of hundred pounds of battery is like adding one person to car--you would have a hard time telling the difference on mileage.

Energy has been cheap, and that will change, yes. However, don't forget we have a source of infinite energy about 8 light-minutes away. I never lived anywhere that was an hour away from work in a 34-year career. What other people do is their business. Are you going to tell folks where they can live?
Right now we can get a lot more benefit from getting folks out of their gas-guzzlers into reasonable cars. Hopefully our new president can let EPA at least encourage people to do that.
And hopefully soon someone will build a practical electric car that is usable, even on long trips.
As far as you conspiracy theory, do you have any evidence to back up your assertions?

 

I guess I have a problem with the nay-sayers on PHEV. To me that is a transition to electric vehicles. The argument that a 5-mile EV range (of course more would be better!) is impractical is to me a non-argument and is an agrument against electric vehicles as well. PHEVs will encourage electric outlets in many places, which, guess what, would benefit EVs as well. But to get to practical EVs, I believe we have to go through PHEVs. Crawl before we walk.

 

And if you have a 40-mile electric range, 35 miles worth of battery are dead weight for my daily commute.

 

Resources aren't there, not at the rate we waste them anyway.

I didn't say they were on the market, but there is no need for any technological breakthroughs (late 1990s tech would do just fine) and in 2 years we'll be swimming in EV options from major manufacturers (with tech even better than 1990s). Did you see all the Detriot Auto show announcements re: EVs?

 

My point is, if the resources existed in the Earth's crust to provide a prosperous 1st world experience for 10+ billion people and we could extract these resources without further destroying the ecology, then I'd be very surprised. Look how badly the Earth is doing when we've only provided prosperity to a small fraction of humanity.

EVs that go over 100 miles per charge aren't required by the majority of people. What dumb nice person wouldn't jump at the chance to drive at 2 cents a mile in a practically maintenance free car (compared to a maintenance heavy gas car at 25 cents a mile) most days of the year, even if that meant he/she wouldn't have a vehicle that could do more than 100 miles on a charge? The vast majority of people drive less than 100 miles per day. The handful of times a year they want to go farther, they'll have other options (besides owning two cars).

And the most important point is the Better Place business model means you don't have to own the battery, making the car cheap to purchase.

Lastly, there is still a chance that cheap 200+ mile batteries or ultracaps could be proven in the next few years. But such products wouldn't be needed by the average driver, especially in a more efficient and sustainable world where changing our habits to protect the ecology will become a necessity. Again, no technology breakthroughs needed.

It's fine to be skeptical but with almost every single car company announcing serious plans to electrify at least part of their offerings by 2012 - this obviously means the technology is ready. One has to be somewhat optimistic.

In GM's case, there are no reports that they are behind schedule in developing the Volt or in testing the batteries. If GM survives at all, they will produce the car, IMHO.

 

Good luck trying to convinve people of that, when we can't even convince them to give up their gas-guzzlers.

I think your view of an average driver includes a triple dose of rose-colored glasses. If you want to get an idea of how many people care about ecology and the environment, take a drive around major cities in California--we did!.

I just watched excerpts from the Detroit Auto Show on TV. Most so-called EVs were series hybrids like the Volt with a 40-mile range. IOW, an EV with a generator on board. The Volt is estimated to cost $40,000. Others will probably be a lot more, like the Chrysler van hybrid. Too high cost for most people. The closest thing to a practical EV was the Mini Cooper with about a 95-mile range. We have a long ways to go.
In the meantime, the 2010 Prius looks a lot better as a practical car. With a plug-in version, it is probably the best alternative until they come up with EVs that can go 300 miles on a charge and be quick charged at a new infrastructure nationwide. But plug-in hybrids are what is going to get us there. The EVs (hybrids?) shown in Detroit will be niche cars, like the Zap, that will appeal to a few.

 

The Prius battery for the 2004-2009 weighs around 69 pounds. I do believe the engine weighs much more than that, what with all that coolant, oil, radiators and such.

There's much more to the engine than aluminum. It's all that small stuff the pundits tell us not to sweat that adds up.

 

Heads up!!!

from reportonbusiness.com: globeinvestor.com - ZENN Motor sales up 52 per cent

 

"As far as you conspiracy theory, do you have any evidence to back up your assertions?"

Many articles on this. google any number of them. I've attached 3 of the ones I have saved...

 

Agree (while in small volume), and that's why any EV RAV-4 is presently bought for far more than it's original price.

Edit-What Tesla figured out and has proved, is that there is an untapped EV market. I'm ready to vote with my wallet, but no candidates have arrived yet. To me it is irrelevant whether the present market is 1000 or 10,000,000 for a highway capable EV. The present selection of zero (excepting the Tesla) is not due to technology limitations, but car builders successfully getting rid of regulation to provide an electric option.

 

i dont think this is appropriate forum to discuss such things...

 

You're probably right. My bad. But it is a legitimate reason to move away from gasoline and toward domestic energy.

 

That is not accurate. We are currently in the process of converting our first 2009 Rav4 to a lithium-ion electric vehicle. We are starting with a RAV4 Limited (leather, etc) and making it a highway capable EV with 100+ miles of range. With city driving, the range is about 120-130 miles. It will have a 35 kwh battery and a two year warranty.

Our estimated cost is $28,000 for the RAV4 and $35,000 for the conversion for a total of $63,000. With state ($5,000) and federal ($7,500) tax credits it will cost the consumer about $50,000.

We have done this on 4 used RAV4 vehicles and they have sold in the mid $40,000s with no tax credits because they are used vehicles.

If we do this with six new RAV4 vehicles at the same time, the production cost of the conversion drops about 20%. So the final cost would be about $56,000. With the tax credits, the cost to the consumer would be about $43,000 to $44,000.

The first one should be ready in 3 months as a test marketing vehicle.
The first batch of six vehicles should be ready this summer.

 

If the goal of the tax credits is to get people out of gas vehicles and into EVs, then the tax credit should apply to conversions.

When you convert a RAV4, are you buying full vehicle (engine and drive train)? What would it cost if you could buy without engine and drive train?
Or is the money maded from "parting out" the new car factored into the final price?

What EV tax credits are in this weeks stimulus package?

 

That's awesome. Just think what could be done when these things a manufactured on mass and from scratch. Add the Better Place 2.0 car model and powerful EVs will be cheaper by far than any gas vehicle.

 

Tax credits for EV does NOTHING for folk on fixed incomes so low no taxes are due. The Prius, on the other hand, is still affordable to such folk, even without tax credits.

For those who really need the "stimulus," the poverty stricken, the homeless, there is still no relief; forget an EV.