Why the "Out of Control" Prius Driver Is Full of It

Hi all, I've just joined to post my thoughts on some lessor technical details since I've seen a few misconceptions posted about what "neutral" is. I've had a great technical and engineering interest in the Prius for many years - although I don't own one.

When you place the Prius in N (or P or R) at speed the controller must simulate the effect of coasting with the appropriate application of the ICE and MG1 in combination. It's just another controlled condition, but one that ignores gas pedal input. The lack of a physical neutral in the drivetrain prevents the natural coastdown that any non-hybrid would have.

It has been pointed out earlier that "power off" does not actually power-off the car at speed - it can't for the same reason - the ICE + MG1 are always connected to the wheels, as is MG2. A actual loss of power at high speed could harm the drivetrain due to over-reving.

Not that any of this lends any credibility to the San Diego incident. More so, exposure of a fraud would perhaps aid Toyota's credibility.

 

What if Toyota never figures out this problem and how to fix it. In the mean time, there are millions of us out here stuck with Priuses and other Toyota that are rapidly losing their resale value. If we decide to dump them, we will take a big loss. If we don't decide to dump them, we are at risk of killing ourselves and our loved ones.

I realize that the actual risk of an accident or death is probably very small especially if you have enough sense to put the car in neutral and turn of the engine. Actually, I experimented today and put the car in neutral while driving and everything worked smoothly.

But perception is reality. And most people don't have a very good understanding of risk and probability.

In essence, Toyota owes us billions if it can not solve this soon. Unfortunately, a class action suit takes years and many of us won't probably won't be around to collect.

 

[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Gee, the character of this guy Jim Sikes just becomes more remarkable every minute. Some say that perception is a kind of reality. Well, here is the reality of Mr. Sikes, not in any particular order.

1. He sounded extremely distraught and incoherent for 23 minutes on the 911 tape. Yet, he regained his composure remarkably quickly. Reported by 10 News, he appeared at a news conference quickly after the freeway incident Monday and also spoke to reporters Tuesday at his Toyota dealership, where his car was towed. He appeared to be very comfortable during these TV interviews. I don't know any normal person who could appear that comfortable on TV after a 23-minute long harrowing, death-defying experience.

2. He won the $55,000 in the lottery and was selected to participate in a California lottery TV game show.

3. He owns a "pornographic" web site venture called "Adult Swing Club" (Google it if you aren't easily offended. I did, and it raised my eyebrows). He filed for bankruptcy in 2008.

4. He reported two burglaries totaling $59,000 that turned out to be unlikely (no evidence was generated that he actually owned the lost possessions).

5. He was wearing a jacket with a Corvette Owners Club of San Diego emblem on it. A very fast GM car. Other than Hummer, a Corvette is about as anti-Prius as you can get.

6. Most people that are 61 years old learned to drive a manual transmission. Most people of that age instinctively know what Neutral is and how it truly affects the automobile.

7. He had a possible motive of retaliation for being turned away by his Toyota dealer when he received a recall notice and took the Prius to Toyota of El Cajon about two weeks ago, but the dealership refused to examine the car, saying it was not on the recall list

So there you have it. And I left out all the real technical unlikelihoods about this story. Any single one of these would raise suspicion of questionable character and possible fraud. But to have seven or more completely unrelated "issues" is mathematically staggering. The odds that this is NOT a case of FRAUD are about the same as those of two people on this Earth having the exact same DNA, but who truly are not identical twins.[/FONT]

 

Wow. You know the odds of fraud, and the odds of dna. What are they?

What are the odds that it is a hoax, and Toyota hasn't figured out how he did it yet? What are the odds that the car did unexpectedly accellerate. Put your knowledge down. I know how to calculate the odds of people having the same dna, but not the other two. Please be specific on what you think the fraud was so we have you down and your odds when the facts come out.

 

Yes, I can calculate the DNA probability too. I was trying to illustrate a concept with hyperbole, trying to make a point with hypothetical math without attempting to present any numbers because no one can know the exact numbers, especially for something as fuzzy as fraud. The best they can do is offer scientific estimations. I am not a statistician, but I understand statistics very well, and I understand risk management very well.

I'm not going to play your game, but someone else could have a lot of fun with this. You have to start with the assumption that for each of the 7 "suspicion raisers" that I mentioned, that a certain number of a given population of people with that trait would commit said fraudulent act in a given time period. Too many variables and uncertainties that I don't have the time to research here. My gut feeling is that the odds are astronomical. Probably more likely to come up "heads" seven straight times than it is likely that Mr. Sikes story is true. But coming up "heads" seven times straight is possible, and so is discovering your identical twin.

 

I was playing your game. Those things don't have much correlation with whether a car reported in having unintended acceleration is driver error or a hoax or real. From the police report their is close to a zero probability of driver error. We are left with hoax or real report. Now given that toyota and the safety agency have interviewed the driver and examined the car and made no report of hoax, I would say that the probability of the unintended acceleration is much greater than 1%. How would you evaluate the correlated statistics instead of thing like the weight of rats in India?

 

Removing the field excitation from MG1 and MG2 will produce a very close approximation of true neutral. Without field excitation, the ICE will spin MG1 without providing any significant torque to the drivetrain. In other words, the engine spins the small motor-generator without driving the car.

Tom

 

I consider myself a lightly educated Prius driver. I only bought the car because people here explained a lot of things and this place is an amazing resource. I must admit that while the 3 second power button shut off resembles every electronic gadget, it would not have crossed my mind in a state of panic. Hopefully in the future. Similar feelings for the emergency/parking brake press while at high speeds. What is the speed limit after which this occurs?

Before judging please keep in mind that most Prius drivers have never been in this forum. I don't blame Toyota for this of course.

As far as this specific incident goes, the reporters' story has traveled the world verbatim. I find all these "instances" peculiar in timing, but cannot discredit the specific claim despite some glaring problems in the narrative.

 

Good idea. There a number of prior posts that give the technical problems with this story. Even if this guy was Mother Theresa, which he is clearly not, there are too many problems. Monday he was just trying to put on the brakes. Now he was "laying on the brakes", standing on them. I still like the part where the engine started itself after he had turned it off and stopped and then ran into the CHP car. Driving Christine, I guess.

 

Can you point us to the NHTSA and/or Toyota reports of their interviews of Mr. Sikes and investigation reports? I can't find them.

 

OK - I'm a sucker for a little mathematical fun if you insist.

Disclaimer: there is no way to know what the "right" numbers are for my following guestimates. Any person, no matter how educated, would assume different numbers or reasoning. Again, I'm trying to illustrate a point that I truly think this guy is a fraud, an opinion shared by thousands of others that I have read recently. Never in my life have I had such a strong "gut feeling" of a suspicious individual.

Just think, in the recently famous "balloon boy" episode, the guilty father only had one suspicious skeleton in his closet -- the fact that he was on a reality TV show. By my count, Mr. Sikes has at least 7 suspicious demonstrations of character, which makes it extremely plausible that he is capable and likely to have committed fraud. And no, not all the facts are out. And no, the initial police report cannot blindly be considered to be fact. Any witness can distort or omit facts, even police officers. In defense of the "fraud" theory, the police report did reveal certain suspicious technical aspects of the case, which I have left out of my statistical calculation.

My odds: (first number = odds that such a person would lie or commit fraud) (2nd number = odds that such a person did not lie or commit fraud)
#1: From distraught to highly composed: 1:25, 0.96
#2: An incessant gambler: 1:20, 0.95
#3: Shady website / files bankruptcy: 3:4, 0.25
#4: Fraudulent burglary report: 9:10, 0.1
#5: Corvette Club member: 1:5, 0.8
#6: Senior doesn't understand "N": 1:5, 0.8
#7: Toyota dealer revenge: 1:4, 0.75

Multiply together: 1% chance this guy did NOT lie or commit fraud.

What do you think the numbers would be?

 

Sikes says he has no plans to sue Toyota

Runaway Prius Driver Faces Questions As Probe Begins - San Diego News Story - KGTV San Diego

So, maybe he is just wacko and doesn't know how to react in an emergency.

 

Re: Sikes says he has no plans to sue Toyota

The plot thickens! He's $700,000 in debt. You don't say! Should I revise my numbers?

#8. $700,000 in debt. 1:2, 0.5
Multiply together: 0.5% chance this guy did NOT lie or commit fraud.

Throw him a life ring - his ship is sinking!

 

Re: Sikes says he has no plans to sue Toyota

Nah, the consensus in this thread is that the driver is stooooopid or worse. Similar consensus was reached in the South in the 1950s and 1960s about race. Then they just lynched the uppity n-word.

 

Re: Sikes says he has no plans to sue Toyota

Probably. LOL.

 

Re: Sikes says he has no plans to sue Toyota

As a liberal, this association of a guy even the frenzied media is questioning with race is embarrassing. If anything, the lynch mob is going after Toyota.

 

Re: Sikes says he has no plans to sue Toyota

Not on this site.

 

Re: Sikes says he has no plans to sue Toyota

If he's not being truthful, he'll have a #9

 

Re: Sikes says he has no plans to sue Toyota

As noted on another thread:
Runaway Prius Driver Faces Questions As Probe Begins - San Diego News Story - KGTV San Diego
And they don't mention all of his issues...