VW Faces $17B Fine for Emissions Scam

i was thinking the same thing. let the trade wars begin!

oh dear, more worries for goldman sachs.

 

Huh? Why?

Bob Wilson

 

Source: Volkswagen may install diesel filters for gas-powered cars - Autoblog

The filters will be used in direct-injection turbocharged engines. Those engines can create more emissions than older, port-injection engines because the newer engines give less time for gasoline to mix with the air in the engine's combustion chamber. The Volkswagen Tiguan SUV's 1.4-liter engine and the Audi A5 2.0-liter engine will be among the first to receive the filters next June.​

After a recent 'dust up' about EVs raising road particulates, I find this silly. Port injection gives time and turbulence to mix the fuel-vapor and air for complete combustion and low particulate emissions. The direct injection gas engines never really impressed me. Too little gain for too much complexity and non-trivial combustion issues. The biggest problem being non-uniform mixture.

Bob Wilson

 

Uh Oh!

Source: Chevy Cruze Diesel Hit with Emissions Cheating Class-Action Lawsuit

GM had been making claims in the past that the Chevy Cruze Diesel that the U.S. version of the car was cleaner that what it had been selling in Europe. Mike Siegrist, GM’s chief engineer behind the US version of the diesel engine, told AutoblogGreen in 2013 that the engine has better NOx control.

The Cruze Diesel had been gaining a lot of consumer interest in the U.S. market for its driving range and mpg. That’s been in decline for a while, and may have been hurt by VW’s diesel car scandal emerging last year. According to HybridCar’s Dashboard, the Chevy Cruze Diesel only had 11 units sold in May and 197 so far in 2016; both of these numbers are down more than 80 percent from last year.​

So now we know what this means: "clean (so sue me) diesel."

Bob Wilson

 

they'll use any excuse to sell off when the small investor isn't looking, and then buy back on the cheap.

 

gm is used to this sort of thing. they have an over abundance of liars, er, lawyers.

 

If GM is cheating on US diesel Cruzes, they are much better at it than VW. The cars were rechecked after VW got caught.

The sales are low because there isn't a 2016 Cruze diesel. This year is the new redesigned Cruze. It's diesel doesn't arrive until next year.

 

So, really, here's what's going on to cause direct injection to be such a big thing.

• Particulate number isn't something that's really been focused on, only total mass.
• Forced induction allows the reduced pumping losses of a small displacement engine (and, in some cases, lighter weight - the Ford Fiesta 1.0T makes similar power to the 1.6 liter, with less weight) at light load, while having the power that people demand under high load... but makes engines prone to detonation, especially on the rotgut 87 AKI (~91 RON) that passes for regular unleaded in this country (and in Japan (which is actually worse, at 89 RON minimum), and in some other countries).
• Even without forced induction, higher expansion ratios improve efficiency, but come with a corresponding increase in compression ratio, that is increasingly prone to detonation. Atkinsonization reduces the compression ratio, but also reduces the effective intake displacement of the engine, reducing power, which needs to be compensated for with a larger (heavier) engine.
• Direct injection decreases the odds of detonation for various reasons (gasoline being injected closer to the time it's needed, along with it being injected into the already hot air and cooling it down more effectively, rather than being heated along with the air).

That combination of circumstances is what leads to DI turbo engines being common, and even when they aren't turbo, DI still being a thing.

My prediction is that DI turbo will fairly quickly become unworkable, for a lot of applications it's currently used in - below luxury applications, where the cost of emissions systems can be absorbed more easily. Port injection turbo is losing favor, although GM and Fiat both still use it in some engines. In any case, turbocharging small engines in general will also go away for particulate emissions reasons - under boost, these engines (whether DI or port injected) have to dump a lot of excess fuel to avoid detonation, hurting both emissions and fuel economy.

Naturally aspirated DI engines may last a bit longer, because they never have to run as rich to avoid detonation. Mixing is still poor, though.

Ultimately, as time goes on, ICEs will upsize and Atkinsonize (especially variable Atkinsonization, something that Mazda (SkyActiv-G, 70 degree authority on the intake cam), Toyota (VVT-iW, 75-80 degree authority), and GM (Small Gasoline Engine, only has 32.5 degree authority, but it seems they're specifically using it for Atkinsonization (retard cam as load is reduced), whereas previously VVT in that range was used for increasing power (retard cam as RPMs climb)) are playing with through cam phasing, and Fiat is playing with through solenoid-controlled, oil-actuated intake valves (the MultiAir system)), to reduce emissions, maintain power, maintain paper efficiency, and gain real-world efficiency, relative to the downsized and turbocharged engines. Cylinder deactivation will probably be part of this, too, especially on larger engines. Direct injection will also likely go away, or at least (as is currently happening on some engines) will be supplemented with port injection.

This will, of course, have packaging implications - platforms now are being designed without larger displacement engines in mind, and engines like Volkswagen's VR6 layout (designed to cram a 6-cylinder in an engine bay designed for a 4-cylinder, by staggering the cylinders) have their own emissions issues due to combustion chamber shape. Camless engines (which will also help with the whole Atkinsonization thing) will help here, by reducing engine height, which also reduces width of V engines, but ultimately, you may even see the comeback of the pushrod engine for packaging reasons, especially with some of the cam-in-cam stuff they're using for VVT. (And, peak efficiency on something like the 3.5 liter 2GR-FXS is 36.5% it appears (224 g/kWh BSFC), versus 35% for the 4.3 liter GM LV3, with similar horsepower, more torque for the LV3, and almost certainly a smaller package for the LV3, both being direct injection (with the 2GR-FXS also having port injection). The LV3 has less cam authority in its VVT, but also has cylinder deactivation, for partial load.)

That said, Toyota has also pulled off 40%+ efficiency out of a 17:1 expansion, 3.7 liter engine... with port injection. (Granted, it was running on Shell V-Power LM24, which as of 2015 was 105 RON, 91 MON octane (for 98 AKI), but still, that's crazy.) I'm not convinced that it's 17:1 compression, especially considering that it lost power relative to its predecessor (550 vs. 520 hp), while having gained displacement (3.4 vs. 3.7 liters), lost a restrictor plate, and maintained a similar RPM range. I'm thinking there was a bit of Atkinsonization there, but it can't have been variable - variable valve timing is banned at Le Mans. (Some technical details on that particular engine.)

 

Details released:

- 466,000 of 499,000 affected cars are still on the road. VW has to get 85% off the road by 6/30/19 or face additional penalties. $10 billion is allocated, assumes 100% buyback.

- Buyback at NADA clean trade in value as of 9/15 (pre-scandal) adjusted to reflect mileage and options - basically a year of free depreciation, possibly more, since it appears you can drive it for a couple of more years if you want to risk the buyout in an accident. You could sell back on 6/29/19 and only take the hit for additional mileage, which is less of a hit to value than time.

- Separate payment of $5,100 to $10,000 for agreeing to settle the class action suit. Amount is based on an algorithm which I'm very much looking forward to reviewing. This isn't linked to the buyback, I've got to dig into the 225 page document to determine if I could take that pay,net today and sell back in a year or two, for,example. It appears that owners in 9/15'who sold in the interim will also get a payment,,perhaps half the payment if you still have it. Not clear if the buyers of those cars get a payment, I doubt it,

-$2.7 billion fine paid toward environmental remediation, administered by a third party. Example given was retrofitting older diesel trucks.

- $2.0 billion paid for zero emission technologies - example given is nationwide funding of fast charging stations.

- Hearing to approve on July 26th, after which VW will start contacting owners, buybacks could begin as early as this fall.

As an owner this is a very reasonable solution to a nasty action. If VW does roll out fast chargers nationwide, it could be a game changer. I've read the average Supercharger station costs Tesla around $1 million, including solar to (partly) power it. At the same price, 2,000 fast charging stations with capacity for a dozen cars each could materially accelerate EV adoption. Fingers crossed.

 

The average SuperCharger station (with solar canopy) costs Tesla about $250,000.

 

that quadruples the number of vdub stations!

 

One of the reasons for waiting until the official annoucement are getting all the details: Volkswagen agrees to buy back diesel vehicles, fund clean air efforts| Reuters

Also on Tuesday, VW announced a separate settlement with at least 44 U.S. states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico that will cost at least $600 million, bringing the total to as much as $15.3 billion.​

Just a couple of observations:

1. "to promote construction of electric vehicle charging infrastructure" - no fool-cell stations.
2. "fund new infrastructure at ports to reduce diesel emissions" - the only people advocating "clean diesel" today are trying to replace port vehicles that are older, emitting, diesels.
3. What happens to the VWs stuck on the dealer lots that can not be sold?

Some of the 'leaked' reports were really pissing me off. Now that we have the details, it looks to be a fair solution.

Bob Wilson

​

 

Ok, I just checked the docs, this is a lottery win for current owners. I have a 2012 JSW, manual with nav and the huge sunroof. I'm low on mileage as well. My check will be:

$20,747 (base buyback)
$ 5,947 (emissions restitution payment)
$ 455 (options - value for nav plus sunroof, less deduction for manual transmission)
$ 2,550 (mileage adjustment to base buyback - I have 37k miles)
$ 425 (mileage adjustment to restitution payment.

$30,124 Total - I paid around $29,000 for the car in June 2012, and I've had 1.9% financing from VW.

Interesting fact - the mileage allowance is a rolling number, i.e. if I want to keep it until the final sell date in December, 2018, i.e. 30 months from now, I can do it for free as long as I don't add more than an additional 1,042 miles per month. Let's say I planned to lease or purchase a Prius or Volt next month, with monthly payments of $400 or so. If I keep the TDI until the final date, that's around $12,000 in car payments I would save with no penalty. Put it another way, I could drive the JSW TDI for a total of around 70,000 miles over 6.5 years at no cost to me, except the risk that I kill the golden goose by totaling the car. Even with the concern that we're adding incrementally to pollution, it's a strong incentive to keep the cars on the road near term, which seems counterintuitive. I bought a 120k mile, 8 year extended warranty, so I wouldn't have to worry about typical VW reliability (HPFP, anyone?).

If anyone wants to check it out, here's the link to all the documents: Volkswagen Group of America, Inc. | Federal Trade Commission

 

From what I've read, it is a fair deal ... certainly much better than the rumors published before today.

Bob Wilson

 

will this have a serious effect on vdub financials, or is it chump change for them?

 

Closer to the former than the latter, it's $16 billion out of pocket, but that will be over a few years. The real question is if the Euro commissioner gets her way and restitution payments are mandated in Europe to the 11 million owners whose cars are being fixed via regulator-approved mods - I think Merkel can and will block that. It will take VW years to recover, but the company won't go away; the stock price popped 5% when this was announced (during a period where prices of German stocks aren't doing so well).

 

It ain't over but easily one year's profits.

Bob Wilson

 

well, i'm not hoping they go out of business, especially with all the brexit fallout they have to deal with.

 

so - the board members, officers & directors cut bonuses by a couple dozen million each, while forgoing stock options - reduce hourly benefits some - and then they can call it a day.

.

 

Source: https: // www. vwcourtsettlement. com/en/

Probably the best and most authoritative source for technical details.

Some of the earlier 'leaked' reports were horribly wrong but I can fully endorse this settlement. It appears to be fair to all: How the VW diesel settlement breaks down in dollars | TechCrunch

Bob Wilson