VW Faces $17B Fine for Emissions Scam

VW developed 4 separate defeat devices over 7 years

 

That is one $%*#@ fantastically productive rogue Software Intern.

 

Yup.
Conceives multiple versions, designs them, tests them, authorizes them, troubleshoots problems, and maintains them for millions of vehicles across many models and years, all while doing the things that he is paid to do and does it all so subtly that no one else knows it there. What a guy!

 

unpaid intern. he's there for the experience.




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german government can bail them out, it's nothing compared to greece. then we can have another, gm.

 

Hope this isn't a repost...

Thanks to Volkswagen Group Massive Emissions Fraud Scheme - Page 18 - My Nissan Leaf Forum, I learned of an interesting PDF on diesel emissions hosted at tdiclub.com: http://pics3.tdiclub.com/data/4156/TDIFest_2015_Tech_Presentation_Diesel_Exhaust_Fluid_DEF_and_SCR.pdf.

 

Just a few bad apples

 

Looking around the TDI forum, I found a survey that indicated ~50 out of ~150 were willing to switch . . . 75% wanting to stay TDI. So isn't one of the stages of grief, denial?
d
Regardless, this is 30 days after sales were suspended and I don't think the TDI community realizes what 'stop sales' really means. There won't be any newbie TDI owners showing up to join their community. Time and wear will thin their ranks and nothing to be done about it.

As for VW, I find it hard to believe they will spend much to carry that technology forward when there are easier technologies 'on the shelf.' I could be wrong but it is time to dig in a different direction.

Bob Wilson

 

Are you assuming that VW can't find a fix that new buyers will accept?

 

The diesel X5 met emissions limits on the road in the study. I don't see why VW couldn't technically do the same now.
I suspect those that green lighted the cheating didn't plan on it continuing for as long as it did, but after their initial success, they just let things continue as is.

 

• According VW, 60,000 will be fixed with a software flash.
• The remaining 360,000 will require hardware changes.
• Meanwhile, VW is not selling any of the affected diesels until they prove they meet emissions in testing and operation and get an EPA certificate for the 2016 models.
  • I expect a 90-180 day delay before the EPA certificate is issued BUT there is no guarantee for even this delay. It could be longer.
• There are whatever the Europeans will do
  
• There are the civil suits around the world
  
• There is the impact on 'street' acceleration and fuel economy
  • diesel version of 'Prius' handling and SUV mileage

Can VW fix them, yes. But they won't be the same by any stretch of the imagination. So new buyers will also look again at that less expensive gasser. I don't expect them to go Prius but the girls earning 70% of the guys might.

Bob Wilson

 

yes, this looks difficult for vdub. they really had people believing there was a magic bullet. either the price has to go up, or the performance has to come down. either way, it will show some stubbornness on their path to continue in the direction of diesel, at least in the usa.

 

The software flash is likely for the SCR equipped Passats and others. These will likely not see any drop in performance and fuel economy afterwards. The 2016 models all have SCR.
For the hardware changes, it depends on the specifics of what those are exactly. The SCR Passat is a bigger car than the LNT Jetta, yet it has nearly the same EPA rating. Installing SCR into these cheater LNT cars, while not likely, may actually improve their fuel economy.

VW's intentional actions will make it easier for the victims in court, and it will make the fallout worse, but the suits on the Civic hybrid didn't destroy Honda. Their hybrid reputation took a hit, but it didn't seem to hurt their ICE sales much. Diesel cars are a smaller segment than hybrids, and while important to VW, they still have plenty of gasoline cars, including their actual performance models.

The question for the US on diesel, is what will the other manufacturers do. The diesel Colorado is still coming, but the diesel Cruze wasn't going to be available during the first year of the redesigned model. Will GM hold off on it, or will they see a shot at stealing VW's diesel customers? Will Mazda see the same and relent on putting a SCR into their Mazda6 diesel?

 

More practical than stubborn... Euro manufacturers have a large customer base for diesel, which is currently at ~60% of new registrations in the EU. Some countries have very high percentage like France at ~75%. Their R&D and their suppliers' are heavily invested. Marketing diesel in the US is an extension of existing technology. Hopefully they will change direction by offering more hybrids and EVs in the US.

Aside from Tesla, amping up EV is more lip service than anything else. Auto makers know EVs bring in much lower post-sales revenue than ICE due to the simpler design of electric motors. Oil & filter change anyone? How about fuel injection system cleaning service, sir? They will only do enough to meet CAFE requirements.

The odd thing about VW AG is not giving America what America demands - more SUVs and CUVs and trucks. When it comes to US consumers, the old saying stays true: "In America Big is good, Bigger is better, and Too Big is just right!" Cars, houses and gut sizes.





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VW's ramping up EV research...

 

My reading of how diesels deal with NOx indicates the engine is also tuned to keep the NOx trap and SCR unit in the temperature range they need to work. To avoid overheating, more EGR and late fuel injection to make the exhaust less lean and hotter. As for keeping it warming under idle, again, late, extra fuel injection to make the exhaust a little hotter. This extra fuel burned for exhaust temperature management reduces efficiency and peak power. But we have some reports with "**EMISSION SERVICE ACTION 2306-EMC Software***"

Lay reports are difficult to interpret because driving profiles are so different (as is the difficulty of getting credible user data.) There are likely pathological profiles that whack the owner hard by increasing regeneration cycles and less efficient modes. There are also likely angel profiles that bless the owner. For example, this driving stunt using cruise control and shifting to "N" for free-wheeling with our Prius:

Yet my lifetime average is running 52 MPG.

We have not seen the details of what VW proposes to do. I get the impression NOx only cars will get an SCR and some of the early SCR cars will get larger exhaust componets.

A lot of those planned profits and investments are going to fix the VW diesel mess. Sad to say, it is impossible to predict the VW fine since so many public and private actions are still in the fact-finding state. Those future, lost profits would have funded management bonuses, dividends and R&D. BTW, this may work since the 'cheaper' managers might be partially paid by making technology work instead of paying the cheaters.

Fortunately, we use the Jeff Cobb data to track sales of hybrids, EVs, and diesels. This next month will be the first, full, month long data of the sales freeze. A lot of us with be looking at the data. Hopefully we'll be able to navigate away from the "glass half-full" and "glass half-empty" BS.

Bob Wilson

 

Platinum price sank due to VW diesel-gate. I didn't realize that much of platinum used in diesels.

Platinum Rises on Toyota Fuel-Cell Car Announcement - Steel, Aluminum, Copper, Stainless, Rare Earth, Metal Prices, Forecasting | MetalMiner

 

How Could Volkswagen’s Top Engineers Not Have Known? - Bloomberg Business

 

I thought running lean increased temperatures. Is that not so, or a gasoline/spark ignition only event? Or is the use of EGR to keep cylinder temps down to reduce NOx production cooling the exhaust too much for the emission systems.

The LNT needs the late fuel injection to regenerate the adsorbant, but how hot does the exhaust need to be for the SCR catalyst? Any numbers comparing it to a gasoline 3-way catalytic converter?

Have the 2016 US VWs been found to be non-compliant?

 

Not sure how Toyota leans their engines, but in light aircraft engines the pilot usually manually leans the mixture. If you lean to max EGT, you can then continue leaning until the temperature cools 50 degrees C or go rich until the temperature cools 50 degrees C. Some pilots feel the engine lasts longer by running 50 C rich, but the manufacturer says it is cost effective to run 50 C lean. Much better fuel savings. I always ran 50 C rich. I was concerned about burning a valve.

So, maybe the ECU in our cars will run lean of peak.

 

Yes, VW admitted they have the "defeat device" code in September.

Bob Wilson

 

It was a great read. I wonder what Jay Leno has to say about Diesel now.

At the Los Angeles Auto Show, VW entered its 2009 Jetta TDI Clean Diesel in a Green Car of the Year contest whose jurors included Jay Leno and the executive director of the Sierra Club. The Jetta won, beating out hybrids. At a conference the same year on diesel emissions, in Dearborn, Mich., a VW executive boasted that the new engines had all the environmental benefits of a hybrid car, without any drag on performance. “You don’t have to sacrifice power to be environmentally conscious,” declared one of the slides.

While the idea of power without pollution took off among U.S. consumers, engineers familiar with the technology knew that such claims required magical thinking. “That is the story of Santa Claus,” says Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, director of the Center for Automotive Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen. Without the urea system, “it’s not possible to meet the standard.”​