Volt 2.0: Ruess "It will leap-frog... the competition"

Discussion in 'GM Hybrids and EVs' started by Jeff N, Oct 1, 2014.

  1. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    Which explains why AutoBlog wrote the following in 2012:
    Chevy Volt again tops Consumer Reports Owner-Satisfaction Survey
    After a few years now, the last year of the first generation Volt has fallen down to 85, I think, which is just slightly higher than the Prius. Oh dear, how low has it fallen. :)

    It's too soon to have ratings for the 2nd generation 2016 model.

    Meanwhile, as you noted, GM has led the rest of the auto industry by readying a relatively affordable 200-mile BEV, rolled out a mid-size Malibu hybrid with 15% better mpg than the Camry hybrid, and is also rolling out a new generation RWD hybrid system for the 335 HP Cadillac CT6 that will probably show up soon in SUV and Pickup models.

    Also meanwhile, Toyota pushes the heavily subsidized Mirai fuel cell car which is expensive and sells in tiny volume and which requires expensive tax-payer subsidized hydrogen stations which are falling behind schedule.

    The Prius Prime looks to be nicely competitive with the other 20-something EV range plugin hybrids but no competitive longer-range BEV appears to be queued up. Toyota appears to be placing an early bet on fuel cell passenger cars and it appears to be a losing proposition along with Toyota's passion for yuge gaping frontal grills and air scoops.

    My theory for the next few years is that Toyota is the new old-GM (at least as far as bad decision making and ugly styling) and GM is the old-Toyota (looking forward with clear vision and incrementally refining their designs).
     
  2. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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  3. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    I'm not sure many Prius and Tesla owners would agree with that statement.
     
  4. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    "Finding an audience" means exactly that. The who is an unknown, since the intended target was missed.

    "Convincing those identified consumers" is what your thinking of.
     
  5. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    John likes using these poetic, yet vague terms that mean something other than what they seem to.
    I am sure he will let you know why it is that having high owner satisfaction has nothing to do with "finding an audience".




















    Merged.







    OK John, I can run downtown in a Volt and find an Audience at the Guthrie, or any movie theater. Obviously that is not what you meant.
    So that we can have a discussion, please clarify what you mean by "finding an audience".
     
    #665 Zythryn, Apr 16, 2016
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  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    where's hill, to ream gm a new one, when you need him?:pwhen is the 50 mpg hybrid malibu coming?
     
  7. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Volt did not reach mainstream consumers, it ended up being a niche. There's nothing wrong with a specialty vehicle though.

    That left us wondering if gen-2 would change radically, like gen-2 did for Prius or another vehicle would be offered.
     
  8. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    So by "find an audience" you mean "reach mainstream consumers"?

    It has reached some, not many, but a few. So would I be correct in assuming you also connect a quantity to that?
    Perhaps your "mass production" number of 60,000/year?

    When you use flowery speech such as "finding an audience" it really does nothing to convey information.
    "Mainstream consumers" isn't much better.

    Hard numbers, such as 5% market share, or 60,000/year are much easier as everyone knows exactly what that means.
     
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  9. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    I did the last time you asked the question, that's why I worded it differently this time.
     
  10. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I just don't understand the logic?
    Because you answered me once in a clear manner, you then decide to answer someone else using unclear terms?

    Regardless, GM is currently has the most popular plugin hybrid and one of the three most popular plugin vehicles.
    With the second generation they improved a number of issues that were seen in the first gen, increased the electric range and improved the fuel efficiency of the gas engine.

    Technically, the car is much improved. Will that translate into sales? It is still fairly early, however it seems to have been a nice boost to sales.

    Leap-frog? Well, that is a rather tough thing to decide, as it is another squishy term that could mean all sorts of things.
    If the competition is other plugin hybrids and the measuring stick is miles of electric range, then yes, that lead is pretty substantial.
    If the competition is all other cars and the measuring stick is sales, then no, nowhere close.

    Will/has it "leap-frogged" the "competition" in the way the speaker thought? Most likely.
    Has it "leap-frogged" the "competition" in the way each and every individual person interprets that phase? Assuredly not.
     
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  11. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    #671 Sergiospl, Apr 16, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2016
  12. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    "Reaching the masses" is not always the same as "technically perfect".

    If 90% of people were to buy a certain brand of car and gave it a 100% owner satisfaction number even though it only had an average reliability rating, it wouldn't matter. Sales will still grow and the market share is still 90%.

    It does make it easier for competitors to build a better version (more reliable) so that market share could shrink in the future.
    Reliability and market share really aren't correlated all that tightly, especially when there is a lack of competitive products.
     
  13. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Try this then...

    What comes after the low-hanging fruit has been picked?

    In other words, once the early adopters have all made their purchases, then what?
     
  14. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    What is it your desire GM do?

    Get out of the car business? Make only gas guzzlers? Return to there previous culture of making yesterday's cars? What?????

    I'm of the opposite opinion. GM should focus on high quality reliable cars progressing to sustainable transportation fueling. Dang, that is what they seem to be doing with the Volt and the Bolt. GM has a lot of lost ground to make up...but I cannot criticize the new culture. I can only encourage it to continue.

    Meanwhile, nearly every criticism you target at GM concerning the Volt actually applies to the Mirai many times more intensely. What audience are they after? Is that "audience" bigger or smaller than the Volt?
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    And how about you let us know when the Prius can go farther than 200 miles on a gallon of gasoline.

    This is what has many of us puzzled by the Prime.
    Would be nice, but I'd settle for 100 miles at that price. The range and price would be hard arguing against for a commuter car in a multi car household.

    I don't see the next Leaf dropping much in price, but I am beginning to think in might have an Al-air battery range extender as an option.

    GM also continues to tinker with mild hybrids with 900 eAssist pick ups being offered for sale in California. The hybrid premium is only $500 to $700 on them.
     
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  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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  17. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I'm only guessing, as I am not GM, but I suspect they want to expand the market. Thus the improvements in gen 2.
    That seems a pretty obvious goal for a car company, don't you think?
     
  18. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

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    If the car is much improved, it would be reflected in sky rocketing sales. That, still has not happened. Just settle for thr realization that the Volt is, and will be always a niche car and be done with this nonsense.

    DBCassidy
     
  19. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    The expectation of gen-2 Volt being the same nature of upgrade as the gen-2 Prius was the theme for 5 years. Enthusiasts had anticipated high demand for a vehicle that would be highly marketable. That didn't happen. It's evident GM got stuck with their approach of sticking to the original plan. They did indeed deliver a vehicle with a "40 mile" range in the end, 5 years later than hoped. Cost was reduced too. Hybrid efficiency still doesn't compete with Prius though. High-Tech draws like LED headlights, HUD instruments, and Adaptive-Cruise weren't added either.

    Toyota took an entirely different approach with Prime, taking advantage of the flexibility they allowed by creating an entirely new offering rather than adhering to the convention Prius established. That change can be looked upon as being hypocritical; however, it does confirm the flexibility. Being able to adjust to an ever-changing market is a very important lesson GM only now is learning the hard way.

    Look at Prime for examples. It will delivers great hybrid efficiency, as well as a bunch of high-tech draws, right from the start. Come mid-cycle update time, we may get a bump in EV range or a reduction in the battery-pack size or a lowering of the sticker-price or new packages to choose from. Heck, we could even get another plug-in vehicle. That flexibility is available. What in the world will GM do for Volt for mid-cycle? Think about the terrible timing that will be, having the tax-credit phaseout taking place then.

    These are concerns gen-2 Volt was supposed to address.
     
  20. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    Oh, I don't know, they completely redesigned the vehicle from the ground up while keeping and extending the design concept of having substantial EV-only driving while being able to fall back on a full capability range extending gasoline engine while dropping the price by an inflation-adjusted $10,000. As BEV interest picks up, I expect that many interested consumers will decide to start off on that path by getting a longer-range hybrid plugin instead (EV on training wheels) and the Volt stands alone as the most capable choice.

    The original GM 2007 EV range claim was based on the city UDDS cycle, as they disclosed at the time, rather than the combined city/highway EV range estimate shown on the window sticker.

    Ignoring the fact that EPA estimates were generally reduced beginning in 2008, the city range estimate would have been about 39 miles for the 2013 Volt due to incremental efficiency improvements (from 93 to 98 MPGe) and an improved battery with a small increase in capacity (from 16 kWh to 16.5). The official window sticker EV range estimate adopted in 2013 reports only the combined city/highway EV range of 38 miles.

    In 2014, GM reportedly lowered the minimum state of charge level on the battery which probably would have increased the UDDS city range to 40. In 2015, GM updated the battery pack again from 16.5 kWh to 17.1 kWh which probably puts the city EV range to 42 miles. In spite of the reported increased state of charge range and larger battery capacity GM did not bother to revise the EPA window sticker numbers. Just in the known pack increase alone, the 2015 combined EV range should have gone from 38 to about 40.

    But it is less important since the larger battery pack results in quite a bit less gas engine use than the Prius Plug-in or Prime in typical use.

    As demonstrated by the use of the same basic Volt hybrid transaxle in the Malibu to get 15% better mpg than the Camry hybrid, GM is able to build competitive efficient hybrid mpg cars. Because of the larger battery pack which enables the primary driving experience of the Volt, they chose to reduce costs elsewhere by saving money on the hybrid efficiency of MG1, via the lack of exhaust heat recovery hardware, and using the cheaper 1.5L engine instead of the Malibu's 1.8L dedicated new hybrid engine design. Toyota made different trade-offs.

    The redesigned 2016 Volt has LED low-beam headlights along with LED daytime running lights (which were carried over from the 1st gen Volt). Only the high-beams remain halogen. I hardly ever use high-beams but people in less urban areas do.

    The 2017 Volt can be ordered with Adaptive Cruise Control.

    How is the Prime more different from the prior Prius Plug-in than the old and new generation Volt are different?

    How is Toyota's market adjustment with the Prime any better than GM's adjustment with the new Volt generation. We don't know pricing on the Prime yet. We know it lost a rear seat. We know the 2016 Prius lost rear seat legroom and likely the Prime did too since the central portion of the 2016 Prius and the Prime seem to be about the same size with just the front hood and rear overhang being substantially redesigned. Meanwhile, the new Volt increased rear seat legroom and, by published specifications, now slightly exceeds legroom on the new Prius. The Volt also added "1/2" a seat in the rear for a middle infant seat, child seating, or occasional short-distance adult seating.

    Hmm, just like GM did with the Volt in 2013 and 2015 with the first generation.

    GM added other plugin hybrids after the Volt. The ELR was a very low volume and high-priced Cadillac. The new CT6 plugin hybrid will probably do a bit better but will still be a relatively low volume car. GM could easily add a plugin hybrid version of the Malibu or Cruze with 20-something miles of EV range by just dropping in a half-sized Volt battery using 96 cells in series instead 96 cell pairs. I'd say they are at least as likely to add an additional plugin hybrid model as Toyota is.

    The GM hybrid transaxle is physically compatible at the engine and FWD axles as their common conventional automatic transaxle so switching from an existing powertrain to a hybrid or even plugin hybrid powertrain is relatively easy across many of their conventional small and medium car models.

    Probably more of the same type of incremental improvements they have been doing....

    Which will happen because they have been leading the existing auto industry's plugin electrification efforts while Totota expended relatively little effort on the Prius Plug-in. Toyota focused on the hapless Mirai fuel cell product while GM readied the first 200-mile EV for under $40k.
     
    #680 Jeff N, Apr 17, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2016
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