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Volt 2.0: Ruess "It will leap-frog... the competition"

Discussion in 'GM Hybrids and EVs' started by Jeff N, Oct 1, 2014.

  1. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    While the rest of the industry strived to deliver something for the masses, GM launched a massive "range anxiety" campaign. They even went as far as trademarking the term. It was a gamble that battery capacity would remain low and cost remain high. The plan was to deliver a "game changer" product which would "leap frog" competitors. The hype was amazing. It was unsupported nonsense being spread like wild fire. How could so much be achieved in so little time?

    It ended up being a disaster. The design fell short of a number of goals. Any hope that was left turned into spin. Sales clearly revealed the game was not changed. In fact, quite the opposite happened. Both Tesla and Nissan demonstrated there was a market without anxiety. Volt didn't have an audience. This is why Prius so often got attacked. It weathered the publicity storm. Staying out of the spotlight by offering a modest (affordable) boost to emissions & efficiency was enough to demonstrate it too had a market.

    The next generation offerings are what will make a real impact. GM is scrambling now. Who will they target this next design at?
     
  2. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    And yet somehow the Consumer Reports survey shows 91% of Volt owners are satisfied (would buy the car again) versus 73% of Prius Plugin owners.
    I see quite a few LEAF owners on MyNissanLEAF who are unhappy about their battery range degradation, even in mild climates, and they do indeed complain about range anxiety.

    A number of them switched to being Volt owners and the general reputation of the Volt at that site is now quite high. The Volt's reputation among Tesla owners is also quite good. Volts have seen very little battery degradation so far even after an equivalent 3-4 years and extended use of EV miles. Quite a few LEAF owners there pine for a future generation 150 mile LEAF.

    My interpretation of the Volt's adequate but non-spectacular sales is that it is due to consumer anxiety with new technology together with an uncertain and generally unmotivated dealership network.

    Although the Volt itself has a good reliability record, GM's past general record has not inspired customer confidence. The Volt is also in a price range where it's upper-middle class customers worry about costs of a potentially unreliable car while the mostly 1-2 percenters who buy a Tesla right now can afford to take on more financial risk in their purchases.

    It seems likely to me that sales of the Volt and other vehicles closely matching its battery capabilities will rebound as skittish potential customers see that the technology works well on their neighbors cars and weak points like hybrid gas efficiency are improved (although it already gets about the same mpg as the downwardly revised Ford Energi plugin models). I just got back recently from a 5,900 mile cross-country road trip and managed 46 mpg in hybrid mode (after making minor adjustments for Mountain Mode accounting foibles).

    In the meantime, the vast majority of the Volt's existing customer base is apparently happy with their purchase. This will strengthen their customer base and reputation and will likely pay off by increasing future sales.

    I would hardly call that a disaster.
     
    #42 Jeff N, Oct 11, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2014
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  3. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    existing consumer base = enthusiasts

    intended consumer base = mainstream

    Yes, current owners are quite pleased. But the goal was to appeal to joe consumer, which was a much more difficult task... which was not achieved as planned.

    Purpose is to attract middle-market buyers and sell in high-volume right?

    I sure hope that's what we can expect from gen-2.
     
    #43 john1701a, Oct 12, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2014
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  4. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I expect it is, just as Prius sales took off with gen 2.
     
  5. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

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    One can hope, but, with GM shrouded in the "uber-secret" tier, time will tell.

    DBCassidy
     
  6. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    And we can always look forward to another Middle East war to raise oil prices again and spur the 2nd gen plugin sales. Unfortunately.
     
  7. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

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    U.S. oil production increase places us on the road to oil independence, which is a good thing. We have the opportunity to vastly decrease / eliminate foreign oil.

    DBCassidy
     
  8. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    I don't closely follow oil production statistics but I gather that much of the recent increase in domestic production is from fracking and that fracked wells generally dry up much quicker than conventional wells. I wonder how long this increased pace of production can be maintained.

    In any case, oil prices are largely set based on global production and the global market so prices are still subject to sharp increases during Middle East instability even if less oil is being imported.

    And global warming. At some point a few years down the road we will finally start seeing significant carbon taxes of some sort which will set gasoline prices on an upward trajectory regardless of domestic supply but this likely will not happen soon enough to boost 2nd gen plugin sales. Perhaps 3rd gen...
     
  9. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Take a look at the oil coming from North Dakota.
     
  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Except we really don't have that much oil.
    And the government recently okayed the exportation of shale oil. So instead of slowing production to keep the price up on shale oil for their profits, and thus extending the time that we got it for, the oil companies can just make it as fast as they can to sell to who ever.
     
  11. TonyPSchaefer

    TonyPSchaefer Your Friendly Moderator
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    The Volt is a nice car. I hold several grudges against GM for a multitude of missteps, bail-outs, smear campaigns, and other things that have just flat-out annoyed me over the years. However, the multiple times I've driven the Volt, I remind myself that it was created by people, not by GM. I know that many of the developers also worked on the EV1*. These are the individuals who love the technology, want to see it succeed for all the same reasons we do, and perform their work with passion; it was not built by the GM marketing machine. It was built by flesh and blood people, some of whom cried when their EV1s were crushed.*

    I hope Volt 2.0 provides better range. I hope it seats five comfortably and with more headroom in the back. I hope the hatch is worthwhile. In short, I hope they push their own envelope and I hope it sells well. I hope all these things because I believe moving forward (in terms of environmental stewardship, reduced oil consumption, and green tech) is much like stepping stones crossing a stream: The point is not to insist on which is the one and only perfect stone; the point is simply to help people get across.

    It's almost saddening to believe that some would hold back a world of progress because they are too busy arguing.

    *Stories told to me by non-disclosed individuals close to the source.
     
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  12. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    As usual, very well said. Now I'll add why I will very likely NEVER buy a GM product: the only way consumers can expect responsible behavior from a company is to hold a company responsible for it's actions; otherwise it will continue e.g. to create toxic dumps, fund smear campaigns, and operate against the best interests of the community. Until GM compensates me, the taxpayer, for the damages it has wrought for the past 100 years I will continue to not only refuse to buy it's products, I will advocate for it's demise in hopes of preventing future evils.
     
    #52 SageBrush, Oct 13, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2014
  13. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    I had countless arguments with enthusiasts about their engineering-only perspective, insisting they take notice of the business perspective. They were blinded by the performance and design.

    Consequences of refusing to acknowledge the market were provided and warned about, repeatedly. They didn't care. They didn't want to accept the reality that engineering skill alone wouldn't be enough.

    Management decisions made a mess of things. That's how we got to the situation we're in now.
     
    #53 john1701a, Oct 13, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2014
  14. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    I did. This is what I saw along I-94 not long after I crossed from Montana into North Dakota on my recent road trip.

    image.jpg
     
  15. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    My issue with those decisions of the past was not addressing need. If GM executives had delivered a sporty type Volt in addition to one aimed at middle-market, good for them. It would have been a win-win. Both business & consumer would benefit from the platform being used in a diverse manner. Instead, GM gambled on the sport, hoping its performance focus would appeal to the masses. It didn't. They also hoped cost would rapidly fall as gas prices continued to climb... neither of which ended up happening.

    Toyota focused on middle-market, delivering a platform able to be augmented further as cost justified. In the meantime, there would be something relatively affordable without any dependence on gas prices. That's a very different approach from GM, especially when taking into account only get 1/3 of the tax-credit.

    The hope is GM will take that proper step, reaching out to mainstream consumers. Achieving profitable high-volume sales is absolutely essential with this next-generation. A configuration designed for the massed is required. If they also deliver and second choice, a more expensive model, good for them. But if that's all they deliver, game over.

    I see Prius PHV as the true game changer, since if focuses heavily on the low end. Yesterday, I had a bunch of weekend running around to do. After 84 miles with just a single recharge, the average came to 60 MPG. Providing an effortless efficiency boost like that is what will really make a difference. Imagine people pulling into their garage and having the system automatically recharge wirelessly. They set it up once, then JUST DRIVE IT. With such a small battery-pack to keep cost down and not compromise large cargo carrying or seating in back, that's realistic.

    Hopefully, other automakers will pursue a similar goal. Without gaining acceptance from the masses, what are we accomplishing?
     
  16. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    John, I'm curious, do you expect that Toyota's hydrogen vehicle will be adopted by the masses immediately?
     
  17. Easy Rider 2

    Easy Rider 2 Senior Member

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    I don't know about John but I certainly don't.

    It is all about MONEY; worship of the golden idol.

    As long as gas priced remain fairly low, "economy" cars will sell poorly in the US because the other governing factors are "macho" and "pride" (bigger is better).

    Look at Europe to see what energy price manipulation will do to auto usage.
    Politicians in the US are too gutless to make that happen here so it will take a market crisis and skyrocketing gas prices to turn the market away from big muscle cars.
     
  18. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Why is the same question bring asked again? FCV plans have already been stated. Remember the audience reply?

    Unlike Volt with the 60K annual goal, initial offerings of fuel-cells are just to establish the market. The audience is those who wish to help with that... low volume... not mainstream.

    And without ample supply, an available fueling infrastructure, and cheap gas, there obviously won't be a mad rush to purchase them.
     
  19. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    Volt owners are happy until they learn the difference between gas consumption and fuel economy.
     
  20. usnavystgc

    usnavystgc Die Hard DIYer and Ebike enthusiast.

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    All I can say to GM is, "I'll believe it when I see it but, I probably won't buy it due to your poor track record of overpromising and under delivering". The Volt was supposed to get 230 mpg's.