Volt 2.0: Ruess "It will leap-frog... the competition"

The Camry hybrid has a low-end trim about $2,500 less than Honda's low-end Accord hybrid trim. I haven't carefully compared the equipment specs to see how much of that is easily accountable to differences outside the basic frame and powertrain. Chevy hasn't announced pricing for the 2016 Malibu hybrid yet.

There isn't any obvious reason to think the Camry hybrid's engine, hybrid battery, and transmission are inherently cheaper due to architectural design than the Honda Accord hybrid or the Chevy Malibu hybrid.

Actually, the Camry and Malibu hybrid transmissions are likely very similar. Both have a power split planetary gear set with a small MG and are hooked up to the engine. Both have a second planetary gear set that is connected to the output of the first gear set and to a bigger MG and the wheels. The sizing of the motors and battery are likely about the same.

The most noticeable differences are that the Malibu transmission includes a couple of clutches and their electro-hydraulic valves that control their position. That's common, cheap off-the-shelf automatic transmission stuff but it adds some small extra cost. Meanwhile, the Camry hybrid has extra DC-DC voltage converter circuitry that includes power transistors. On the other hand, the Malibu has a smaller 1.8L engine instead of the Camry's 2.5L so maybe that saves some cost. The battery tech is different also. Toyota uses NiMH and Chevy uses Lithium-ion but it's not obvious that there is a significant cost difference these days.

So, it's not clear to me that the basic hybrid system in the Camry powertrain is inherently less costly than the ones in the Accord and Malibu in the overall scheme of things. I suspect Toyota has volume production cost advantages but that's a temporary phenomenon if Honda and/or GM can build up volume sales for their cars and one marketing advantage they have in the 2016 time frame is substantially better (~15%) mpgs than the Camry's 43 city, 39 highway, and 41 mpg combined.

 

We have our occasional conversations comparing the merits of non-plug hybrids with EV-centric plugin hybrids like the Volt but the Volt is really more like the BMW i3 -- it offers metro area EV driving plus a range extender. Thus, the Volt is really cross-shopped with BEVs that offer 50-100 miles of range or other plugin hybrids with substantial EV range.

A hybrid Cruze would not be much of a market conflict with a Volt. Both a ~50-55 mpg Cruze and a Volt would emit similar CO2 on a national average basis although the Volt would have easy opportunities to use any available renewable power nationally and would automatically emit less CO2 in many parts of the country where most hybrids and plugins are actually sold.

In California, driving a 2016 Volt is estimated by fueleconomy.gov to emit the same CO2 as driving an EPA estimated 68 mpg Cruze and something like 40% of all Volts in the U.S. have been sold in California up until now. I think that's an easy point of differentiation. Likewise, a putative 55 mpg 4th generation non-plug Prius isn't much different.

 

Similar things could be said about the Prius PHEV. We're not going to instantly convince everyone to buy PHEVs and BEVs instead of Corolla's and Prius Liftbacks. Consumers themselves will decide what becomes mainstream and mainstream does not always mean the cheapest car. The general public is still going to take many years to figure out the drivability and fueling advantages of plugins as well as the importance of lowering carbon emissions.

 

In your opinion...

The subscribers of Consumer Reports disagree with you. They still like them some Prius Liftback which scored 82 out of 100, but the Prius Plug-in at 69 not so much. Better than either is the Volt at 85. Model S comes out on top at 98.

These are survey ratings from subscribers rating their own cars.

Full article just published at:

Consumer Reports: Tesla Model S Rated #1 In Customer Satisfaction

 

The survey does not support your view about the terrible, terrible compromises that GM allegedly made when they designed the Volt. The owners seem pretty happy with their cars overall and would buy again.

Meanwhile, the Prius Plug-in owners apparently had a somewhat negative view of the compromises made in its design since the Prius was 82 and the plug-in was 69.

I'm just saying your perceptions and general outlook are not shared with these other owners. Maybe your ideas about how to best make a mainstream plugin hybrid are out of alignment with the mainstream?

 

Unfortunately, I'm not aware of any public surveys like that so the CR survey and other owner surveys like that are the best proxy we have.

 

That seems very selective. I'm not at all sure that forum and blog writers have the same buying criteria as mainstream consumers.

You are correct that surveys of existing owners tell us only part of the story but it's the best source we have that covers a large collection of car buyers with a variety of backgrounds and interests. Plus, they have actual experience with the cars and what they liked and didn't like as opposed to current non-owners who are maybe future owners but may be somewhat misinformed or may not yet really know what features or design tradeoffs they like or don't like.

Buyers who think they are interested in a BEV but don't always have reliable access to charging wherever they want to drive and/or don't have the money for the existing 250+ mile Tesla models. In other words, they're tired of burning gas for various reasons (environment, national security, driving pleasure, etc). The Volt and i3 give them a BEV driving experience with training wheels and road-trip flexibility from the gas engine when the battery runs out although the i3, as currently designed, has some significant powertrain limitations. PHEVs with smaller batteries serve some of that market as well for people with shorter daily commutes. Others, like yourself, are less smitten with all-electric driving and place a higher priority on ther aspects of the car that conflict today with having a larger battery capacity.

See above. Basically, people who want Model S capabilities like extended driving range but can't or don't want to spend that much money. When Bolt and Model 3 show up they grab some folks who otherwise would be gen 2 Volt customers. But, more and more people will begin considering plugins and a large segment of initial customers will want training wheels as a transition to a future BEV purchase. Mainstream customers are cautious.

Huh?

Simple. More people will see friends, colleagues at work, or neighbors with plugin cars and will become confident that they are a safe possible choice.

There are HUGE numbers of people who are a potential good match for a plugin car and specifically for a compact hatchback commuter car like the Volt. All it takes is time for them to become confident enough to seriously consider one.

This even still applies to non-plugin hybrids. There are still huge numbers of car buyers for whom a Prius or other hybrid makes great sense but they still buy a conventional car because that is what they are familiar with and buying conventional seems less risky. Many of these people will be converts in the future even though the car most ideally suited to their needs is a hybrid and is already for sale with a good discount at their local dealer. They just aren't psychologically comfortable yet and in many cases have still not yet test-driven or even been a passenger in a hybrid yet.

 

MotorTrend's 2016 Volt review just added an interesting 2.5 minute commentary video (scroll down the page to find the embedded video).

2016 Chevrolet Volt First Test Review - Motor Trend