Volt 2.0: Ruess "It will leap-frog... the competition"

It came from the disregard of tax-credit depency and refusing to talk about target consumers.

Lately, nagging persistence has turned into the only way of even getting any attention focused on need.

That same pattern was what we saw with Gen-1 rollout... which fell well short of both plug-in expectations and being competitive with traditional vehicles.

 

True, but it is a safe bet that the Volt's price isn't below production costs.

Let's look at the Cruze. Same platform as the Volt, and no one has accused it of being priced under cost. The Cruze L is the 'loss leader' of the model, and the one with the lowest profit margin. I'll go with $16,000 for its cost, it is likely lower than that. The hybrid premium for a car of this size is around $2000; that'll cover the motors, transaxle, inverter, and charger. The current estimate for Li-ion batteries is $500/kWh. So the 2016 pack will be $9200. Round up to $10k to cover the thermal management system. Plus $825 for delivery.

That's $28,825 for a reasoned cost for the 2016 Volt with delivery. With and announced price, plus delivery, of $33,995, that gives GM at least $5000 of wiggle room to cover content differences and profit.

When the Gigafactory comes online, the pack cost will drop by $3000 to $4000.

 

That would give another $1840 in my margin. The $400 to $500 range is where NiMH is at.
Battery prices would have to have a decent price drop since the plugins' introduction for GM and Nissan to be talking150+ mile BEVs in the next couple years.

 

That's likely way too low. There's a lot involved with the transaxle alone and the 2 motors aren't on the cheap. The nicer dashboard and screen need to be included as well. Also, it comes with a cleaner emission system.

 

What is the rare earth content compared to Toyota's hybrid motors. I was eyeballing that hybrid premium from the Prius c and Corolla, and then rounded up.

 

The hybrid premium between the Prius c and Yaris is about $3000. The Camry is around $4000. Using either value with the $400 kWh battery cost still leaves a fair amount for extra features and profit. I've once heard small cars have a margin of 6%; that would be $1990 with the Volt's announced price, and these rough estimates are higher than that.

 

Ok. So, we say the MSRP could in some manner compete with profit. There's still the matter of making up the $7,500 difference. Will the Gen-2 address that or is that an expectation of its successor?

 

The Volt could very well become the albatross of the century. I just have to wonder what the total cost per car is, after GM's huge losses plus the taxpayer-paid credits. I just have to shake my head when I compare even Tesla to GM in this segment.

"
At the end of April, dealers held about 6,000 of the current model. To put that in perspective, it's more than twice the 2,779 Volts sold in the first four months of this year, a decline of 46% from a year earlier.

While the 2015 Volt carries a suggested retail price of about $35,000, before a $7,500 federal tax credit, TrueCar, the online consumer shopping guide, reports that the Volt's average price at closing is $30,607, also before the tax credit.

But the vast majority of Volt drivers lease the car."

Chevy's 2015 Volt is priced to sell

 

The choices GM has made with Volt 2.0 are setting it on that course.

Many years ago, we watched the first GM attempt to deliver a high-efficiency technology fail horribly. Two-Mode was touted as the great successor, the advancement that would out-Prius the Prius. It didn't, not even remotely close. Too many tradeoffs were made.

Volt was the effort to make things right. Early on though, we saw a misalignment of priorities. What they targeted for performance was not conducive to making it affordable for the masses. As details emerged over the development years, results wandered further and further from mainstream interest. Enthusiasts were thrilled though, absolutely delighted with the engineering achievement. Unfortunately, rollout proved that didn't pay the bills.

Gen-2 should have been a correction, realigning goals. Reducing cost was supposedly the highest priority. Turns out, it wasn't. Having reduced the battery-capacity would deliver improved cost, space, and weight. It could have easily been done without loss of EV range too. Instead, that was sacrificed for the sake of increasing range from 38 to 50 miles.

Will that tradeoff really be worth it? So what if the engine starts from time to time? The benefit of carrying around a gas engine is to supplement power. If the goal really is to use EV almost exclusively, avoiding HV for all but special circumstance, why not use a smaller engine like BMW does?

The obvious sign of trouble to come is how the issue of cost is again passed on to the hope of later technology improvements. In the meantime, dependency on tax-credits will continue. That's contributing to low sales expectations and an emerging theme of "wait until Gen-3 rollout". How much will an automaker continue to invest in a vehicle unable to self-sustain? Dealers certainly won't want to carry a low-demand vehicle.

Seeing GM make an effort to diversify by offering a plug-in CT6 and Bolt is encouraging, but their sales could shorten the duration of when tax-credits are available for Volt. Should we really just sit back and wait, again?

 

There's a real message behind the Volt, and many other such ventures. Probably behind Toyota's fuel cell cars as well. I could certainly be patient enough to wait for something worthwhile. I have to wonder if putting so much time and effort into money-losing ventures takes away from other products? Perhaps they cheap out on budgeting for ignition parts trying to scrape together funding for the Volt?

Competition generally drives better products, and lower prices. Now we have companies working on much better batteries with longer ranges, fuel cell vehicles with uncertain futures, better and more hybrid models. Just have to wonder how much advancement has been lost on hybrids doing all of that.

 

hybrids were always a bridge to the future for toyota. the problem is, you have to spread the wealth around to find out what the future is, it's not at all obvious.

 

no question you can't stand around in the same place. But there's always unintended consequences. Toyota's one of the very few that can do some big things outside of their current circle, but then again, they generate real profits from real, salable products. They actually operate like a real business.

 

California dealers are already taking orders for the Gen II Volt.

 

why not? and deposits too, i bet.

 

Yep.

 

i'm in the wrong business.