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Go drive a current Rav4h and imagine it with 100 more HP. My current Rav4h has the acceleration of my Porsches. The hybrid costs more than the ICE version and outperforms it. And the plug-in will outperform the simple hybrid with its 300+ HP. Not as fast as a pure EV done right but still a step up worth paying for and cheaper than a Model Y.

Seems to me Toyota got the SUV/CUV switch right. And they probably have an EV planned for when the plug-in can be out done at a successful selling point that yields a profit. After all, they are testing the technology in China. Just as they tested the Prius in Japan. Probably waiting for supply chain maturity and the next gen battery technology.

 

IMO, no they are not. For two reasons.
First, they had the green car "halo" advantage for the last ~20 years.
Hybrid (almost) was equated with the Prius brand.
They allowed a newcomer to the industry to steal that away from them.
This stumble will cost them. They could have sold a Prius EV in half or less than the quantity Tesla has sold Model 3s in the last year and maintained their green halo.
Instead they are behind and it will take 5-10 years to regain their reputation, unless they have a surprise announcement within the next year or so.

Second, is the Supercharger network. When people say that the infrastructure is "not there" yet for widespread EV adoption...this is only true for non-Teslas. There are enough Supercharger locations for most consumers to travel with a Tesla. Of course, as the numbers grow more plugs will need to be added as well as some more out of the way locations. But "most" people can drive to "most" places with today's situation -- but NOT with hydrogen, only in a Tesla.

Mike (I've really liked my Prius's and still like them -- Model 3 is just better)

 

The situation isn't zero-sum. The market doesn't work on a micro level either. This is a macro-economic change, requiring multiple players. None of the big ones wanted to play along though. GM, Ford, Chrysler, and VW all chose to resist in some manner and did so for 2 decades. Tesla filling in that void provides exactly the type of ally that has been needed. This is why "know your audience" is such a vital part of the equation.

Many will argue until the cows come home that top-down & bottom-up approaches cannot co-exist. Reality is, they are complimentary. That's why so many online battles are pointless. That's why claims of "behind" are words of rhetoric without substance. What cost is there to taking the time to ensure they are delivering change their dealers will embrace? Rushing to market without a robust, profitable, adaptive set of technology advances is not how attract mainstream buyers.

In other words, following a belief that not capturing the early-adopter market represents a huge loss in the realm of appealing to ordinary consumers is futile. The "halo" remark confirms a mismatch. Who does RAV4 Prime target?

 

While I did have a 1970 914 with its 85 HP. The ones I was speaking of were a 1999 2.5 Boxster and a '01S Boxster 3.2. Both had TIP transmissions because of where I lived and my commute at the time. I'm talking perceived acceleration. Recall the TIP started in second of 5 gears unless you absolutely floored it. And the P-cars didn't have the instant torque of the electric motor. So the perceived acceleration feels the same or better even if the numbers aren't. Which makes it fast enough. Now for someone who has to be the fastest, not so. But they don't buy SUVs.

For the casual car shopper the test drive experience won't disappoint most and the step up to 300+ HP will be even more impressive. As the article on Innovators Dilemma says, Toyota is marketing the Rav4h as a upgrade and not stressing the MPG. So if it is perceived that way, their strategy is a success. Since they are supply constrained (meaning they can sell more than they can make right now) the strategy must be working.

And 3PriusMike, sure the Model 3 is better. But configured the same way, not priced the same. I'm not cheap but I don't like to spend that extra money that can be earning me $. I also decided I didn't want a car my wife couldn't drive. It would totally intimidate her, she struggles with new interfaces.

 

The catch is, there is not an innovator's dilemma. It's a perception being portrayed by not looking at the bigger picture. The example of "not stressing the MPG" provides evidence supporting that. People already know what HYBRID FROM TOYOTA means. There isn't anything to stress. There isn't even anything to advertise. The technology has become so ubiquitous, nothing needs to be said.

It's as elementary as knowing "there's an app for that". Nothing else needs to be said. The technology involved and the anticipated benefit has become knowledge so common, you're just wasting time putting any focus on it. Remember, advertising a complex product means focusing on what the potential customer doesn't already know, not sighting the obvious.

As for success, you must know what the goal is. Toyota currently has their desired take-rate set in the 20% to 25% range for RAV4 hybrid.

 

My point to John was that I would have purchased a Prius EV that came with a Tesla drive train (or something like it).
The Model 3 interface is odd but I generally like it. But it has bugs in the entertainment code...nothing in the actual driving portion. And that was my point...that Toyota would have gotten lots of sales just in terms of being a Toyota -- reliable, service everywhere, etc. Instead they gave all the early adopter sales to Tesla.
This has allowed Tesla to build out the Supercharger network faster ad wider than anyone would have thought.
This is a big deterrent to many against buying anything other than a Tesla in the next few years.
It is not a "winner take all" kind of thing...but it is a case of the early winner taking a big part of the market that the incumbents may never get back.

Look at what has happened in the luxury car portion of the market. If the Model Y and pickup are as successful as the Model 3 (to date) then the pain is going to be spread to many car makers in the mid range.

Mike

 

And here is how they will raise funds to pay for their EV ventures.

How will GM fund its EVs? By launching bigger, gas-guzzling SUVs - Electrek

 

keep hope alive

 

There'll be a small diesel option at least.

 

This is not surprising. It is pretty well accepted that GM, Toyota, VW and most of the others make the most money on large SUVs and trucks.
It isn’t as if GM wouldn’t be raking in cash on high margin SUVs and trucks if they weren’t making EVs.

 

3 liter inline 6 diesel in the Suburban/Yukon thingie.

now add 6mt and start stop

 

you're taking all the fun out of kicking gm when they're down

 

oh, don't worry, i'll be kicking until all their talk actually produces something of value

 

The diesel Cruze and Equinox had start/stop. So do several of the gas models.

Among the full size trucks, I think Ram is the only one that still offers a manual, which probably doesn't extend to their SUVs.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/insideevs.com/news/388159/ev-tax-credit-extension-explained/amp/

There’s bipartisan support of increasing the per manufacturer tax credit to 600,000 units but ending the credit in 2024 for everyone regardless of credits used.

I wonder if Toyo can sell 5xx,xxx units in 4 years?