Featured Toyota Talks Prius Prime versus Chevrolet Volt, Mirai, TNGA, and CH-R

There are energy losses for all fuels in getting them from the source to the car.
The EPA fuel economy rating for plug ins is from the wall; it takes into account charging losses.

 

isn't this the prime/volt/mirai thread?

 

Well we are talking about my specific needs, and wants, and I most certainly don't live in california nor want to deal with the hassle of the texas/california sales taxes etc, unless a california dealer would lease one in texas, with texas rules.

So here we have it
90% of my days are 30 miles or less before I can charge, and can finish the day fine.
We have good L2 infrastructure in austin, so I don't even have to charge at home many days if the battery is big enough.

Occasional long trips where there is plenty of gasoline infrastructure, and tesla will have superchargers by the end of the year, but there are not L3 chargers.

I would rather have a 4 door sedan than a hatchback. I like luxury and acceleration.

That all gets rid of any incentive for me to get a bolt in a year when they make it to texas, when my early deposit on a model 3 should get me one in less than 2.5 years. A 2 year lease on a i3-rex or volt may make sense, but it would have to be a good deal.

I think most of the bolts will go to gm fanbois or those not willing to wait for the model 3. I want the autopilot, which isn't on the bolt, and the super chargers, and really its not going to cost me that much more compared to the value of the cars. The model 3 just looks better in my eyes, and will likely perform much better.

I don't really think there is much of a market for the bolt, if tesla can deliver what they promised in quantity.

Now there will still be markets for the prius prime and volt, and I would guess the prime market is larger than the volt's market because of sales in Japan and customer loyalty to toyota being higher than loyalty to chevy.

 

interesting, i thought the bolt would do rather well. seems like a leaf with better range.

 

Cost.

Without the ability to earn profit without tax-credit help, what motivation is there for automaker, dealer, and salesperson?

 

Dealers will make about the same money they make today. They will convince people to pay several hundred dollars a year for maintenance inspections even on Volts that only need an oil change every two years and on BEVs that just "need" inspections.

Tesla charges around $500 dollars a year for maintenance inspections and minor fluid replacements: four years pre-paid for $2,100 or pay as you go for $2,400.

Service plans | Tesla Motors

 

Wth?
Do you think autocompanies should only operate for this year? That is what got gm in bankrupcy and the japanese government pouring money into toyota for years through tax breaks.

The reason to invest in plug-in technology is that is likely the tech that most cars will have in 20 years. Don't be fooled by the small market today. Now the problem with the dealers is pretty clear. They are extremely short term oritented, and toyota has not done much to train them for plug-ins. GM and nissan have made more of an effort, but have talked about dealers being a big problem. Tesla gets around the problem by not having dealers, but the dealer lobby is pretty strong and working against them politically.

 

Are the Ioniq plug ins on your radar for a short term lease? Sounds like the BEV works for your 90% usage, but I can't say about for the 10%.

And there will be a Leaf with better range coming soon too. The problem for both is the Supercharger network. 200 mile EV range could work as an ICE replacement, but GM has no interest in helping a level 3 CSS network grow, which will delay and limit where the Bolt could be such a replacement. For it to be more appealing than the Model 3, the 3 needs to be lacking on the features in comparison for the same price.

A Leaf with longer range broadens the pool of potential buyers, but it is still one in which a BEV is mostly seen as the second car for commuting. For me, the 110 miles the Ioniq BEV will likely have is plenty for such a car, and it will be cheaper than the Bolt. Superchargers make the Model 3 a primary car replacement for a larger pool.

 

Not sure what you are asking.

The discussion hasn't included anything short-term, hence looking at plans for when tax-credits are no longer available.

 

it will probably be 5 years before tesla can satisfy yearly demand. in the meantime, some of those people will buy a leaf or bolt, and those cars will evolve each year as well.

i still believe that most drivers in that time will see a 200 mile range as more local, and not for long distance travel. 200 miles minus heat or a/c will be a nice range for something beyond the typical commute, and yet, allow you to leave home and return without recharging on the road.

 

Like I said. The future looks brighter after the credits expire, except for the short term 2 or 3 years right after (2019-2021? for tesla and gm), when some will get them and some will not. Battery costs are going down fast (7% per year), while volume seems to be shrinking in a manageble way (20% every 5 years) . The model 3 shows what you can do with design when you clean sheet it.

Prius prime battery won't cost toyota $1200/kwh they were talking about in 2009, but likely will be $300/kwh or less come 2021 when their tax credits are up. 8kwhx$300 is only $2400. The big costs are the hybridization (engine, psd, mg1, etc)

 

Lithium cell production was ramped up significantly to supply gen-4 Prius, helping to reduce the premium.

As for when tax-credits are up, where did that come from?

 

The 2017 i3 gains about 30 miles of range with a pack no larger than the last.
BMWs 114 mile range 2017 i3 94 Ah | CleanMPG
The REX gets a slightly larger fuel tank also.

 

To qualify as a true "EREV", range of EV propulsion must be greater than HV.

A larger pack allows a larger tank.

btw, the i3 upgrade is exactly why I questioned Volt's approach. It's pack size doesn't target the audience intended anymore.

 

estimates from insideev for gm and tesla, from me on toyota based on my projected sales idea of prime.

 

I can honestly say I can't recall ever seeing that definition of EREV before. You are describing a requirement of California's BEVx designation. The i3 is currently the only BEVx that I know of.

GM's proposed EREV definition in their SAE paper says nothing whatsoever about requirements after the usable battery range runs out. It just says a car must start out on usable electric energy, must have freeway-capable performance and capability, and must stay electric regardless of vehicle speed or driver accelerator pedal. There are no other requirements. Under GM's definition both the i3 rex and Volt are EREVs.

I assume you mean the Volt pack size is not competitive with the i3 rex? But then you are always concerned with cost. The Volt is around $10,000 cheaper than the i3
rex and provides enough routine electric range for a large number of drivers. Plus, for road trips the Volt is far more practical with a bigger tank and a full-performance engine rather than the 2.4 gallon i3 with worse gas mpg than the Volt and only 38 HP of output.

 

Correct, because we have already concluded GM's proposed definition serves no purpose for consumers. For that audience, they see vehicle choices as a breakdown of EV range, HV efficiency, and purchase price.

Again, know your audience. BMW customers pay more for their vehicle than those purchasing a Chevy. The more appropriate price comparison would be BMW to Cadillac.

Isn't that the very type of vague reference we are trying to avoid spreading?

0-60 acceleration of 7.9 seconds with the extender isn't exactly slow. It's able to cruise along at 80 mph too. True, you will struggle to climb a mountain at fast highway speed, but some of us don't live near any mountains.

What specifically did you mean to convey?

 

They also see max EV speed and acceleration, since the majority don't want the ICE to turn on while there is still grid charge left for their regular use.

 

In all fairness to GM, the designation of the Volt as a "EREV" is because the Prius defined for the rest of the world what the word "Hybrid" really means.

All the SAE and technical definitions becomes insignificant once a term get defined in the public's lexicon. Think of the problems Toyota inflicted upon GM and then how GM amplified those problems. The Prius "hybrid" got fantastic MPG, was extraordinarily non-polluting, quiet when stopped or moving slowly, and was extremely affordable. Then GM introduces their "hybrids"....which were crap. (Remember the Crocodile Dundee comment "You call that a knife???" The same thought applies to GM "hybrids".) GM using the word hybrid with any of their vehicles could only result in laughs and derision.

So how does GM describe the Volt? Using the word "Hybrid" is right out, even in the PHEV term, the H carries baggage. Additionally, the whole concept of electric refueling is new stuff. "Electric Vehicle" needs to be prominent. So the term "EREV" is born.

 

Max EV speed is a dead topic. What currently produced plug-in hybrid cannot maintain 80 mph in EV ?

With specifications. Marketing jargon doesn't accomplish much.