Toyota Says Prius Will Outsell Camry By 2020

Ok, sure, but at what cost? No small matter. How long will those batteries last?

Big issues.

 

They need a breakthrough in battery technology to reduce battery cost for this to happen. Otherwise hybrids will continue to dominate.
See MIT's Technology Review this month.

 

funny posts here. looks like toyota is wrong again

 

Oh man, this was a great thread to revive Bisco!

I got a few chuckles to be sure. It appears gasoline is indeed still very much in need and is even cheaper now. (Just paid $2.34 about 30 minutes ago). Sadly, the Prius has become a pretty slow selling nameplate. At least around here. Especially now that there are so many hybrids on the road which look more like a typical car. At least Toyota and the Prius lead the way.

I'd like to make a prediction for 2029, but I honestly don't want to look the fool when you bring this thread back up then. lol

 

I didn't read it back then but did the funny predictions on the mirai. Toyota On Mirai Vs. Tesla: Battery Electric Vehicles Have 'Fundamental' Physics Problem

Its kind of funny that this was only 4 years ago, when toyota knew there was no "physics problem" with bevs but others were pointing out physics problems that hurt the economics of 10,000 psi hydrogen fuel cell cars back then and still today compared to phevs and bevs. Tesla didn't invent any new material but the tesla model 3 long range rwd is better in just about every way than the mirai, and the model S now has a 370 mile range, which is longer than any fuel cell vehicle.

By the way the prius is the number one selling car in the first half of the year in japan the aqua (prius c) is number 3. In the US though in the first half of the year the lowly rav4 hybrid outsold the prius family through the first half of 2019. Rav4 is now toyota's best selling vehicle.

 

The Rav4 is in very short supply in many areas and configurations. So much so that in some areas the dealer will not even talk to you if you aren't willing to pay $2-4k over MSRP. Supply and demand.

As one who bought one, love it. Not cheap in the top configuration but MPG like the v, powerful, quieter. 1200 miles and no reason to visit the dealers yet. I drove 350 miles to get mine and back the same day. And no, I didn't pay anywhere near MSRP.

 

japanese and american markets a polar opposite, as one might expect. the downside is toyota doesn't understand it.

 

My prediction for 2029 - we’ll be past the tipping point. Fully ICE vehicles will be in the minority, and more than half of people will be driving all electric, hybrid, or plug-in hybrids. Gas prices will be similar to today or less due to a continued decline in demand. Kind of an exciting prospect, but it feels like we’re a few decades too late to help slow down climate change. A lot of our electricity will still be generated by fossil fuels, but we’ll be close to 50% generated from renewable sources (wind, sun, tidal).

 

you do realize i'll be digging this up in ten years, if they haven't buried me yet?

 

The prediction that there will be a 500 mile range electric car that charges in 30 minutes by 2020 is by far the closest to accurate of all the 2011-era posts in the thread.

By 2029, my guess is at least 10 electric cars will be mainstream (part of top 100 models in sales), but less than 50% of cars sold will be electric. And the Prius will either be restricted to plug in models only, or it will no longer exist.

 

how many models at 100th place were sold last year?

 

i found kia telluride at an estimated 50,000 this year

 

Nobody guessed Bisco will hit 80000 posts by 2020

 

Actually, I did. Seeing so many posts per hour everyday, it raised concern about drowning out participation of others.

 

what others

 

And most people with a non-plug in at that time will not know, nor care, if their car is a hybrid or not.

Your one liners are a harmonious disruption to the thoughtful and understandable posts by others.

 

I think they do understand it. They sell a LOT of cars. Almost 10.6 million worldwide in 2018.