Featured Toyota Reveals EV Prototypes Ahead of 2020 Launch

EV tech is new, there will always be better in the years to come.

 

so, that's a little over 10% capacity loss in 75K miles via air cooling a battery? Comparred to 200K average tesla miles, averaging less than 10% loss liquid cooled. Pay me now or pay me later. I wonder if there's any info on the climate/temps that the Scion was driving in. Were all of the early Scions equipped with CHAdeMO's ?
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And why HYBRID, for most countries, is the better option TODAY. In years to come, when power is cleaner (and in some countries already), that will change - by which time, battery technology will improve. Tremendous advances happened over 100+ years of ICE engines (which is still happening) - I expect EVs to do the same.

 

The problem is, we're still using a battery technology invented in 1980 - nearly 40 years ago - and the difference between now and then is not very much in terms of performance - only about a factor of 2.5 or so over that 40 year period. My claim is they need to be 3-5 times better than now to be viable, which if rates don't improve would take about another 40-60 years. In other words, we need a breakthrough, not more incremental improvements. And breakthroughs are not very predictable.

 

But over the 40 years, was demand there to drive the economics of serious research? It seems now with batteries being used in everything, a week doesn't go by without some announcement of improvement in battery technology in the lab. Now when and how that filres into something you can buy is the question.

When I think back to the first battery operated tool I had and compare that to what I use now, no comparison. In packaging especially. So there are advancements that have filtered through. Now when we will see advancements in the total systems used in cars....

 

Absolutely there was.

Right, and so far they never materialize in the market.

That's because it was likely nickel-cadmium.

My progression in model airplanes is nickel-cadmium (1986), nickel-metal-hydride (about 2x better), lithium-polymer (about another 2x better).

 

And in that 40 years, ICE technology has improved by a greater factor (g/km CO2) and an appreciably factor in economy. One of the most relevant aspects of that ICE technology is the hybrid where it's using a smallish battery in conjunction with the ICE to seamlessly achieve quite astonishing l/100.

I can't comprehend 350 amp fast charging being totally safe - maybe when all the stations are new, but when we have millions of them, I just don't know - that's a lot of power going down a wire. Not all countries have Health and Safety regimes like Australia or USA.

Nor, how batteries will cope with being charged at that speed will last?

 

250kW and 350kW charging isn't all that crazy fast, given the size of the battery. Around 3C or so. I've been able to charge my model airplane batteries that fast for over a decade. One thing to realize is that they don't come close to sustaining that speed, even with water cooling. So it charges really fast for a very short time (a few minutes) and then starts to substantially slow down.

 

Yes, I read about that - the NISSAN Leaf will charge once at the speed in the brochure, but apparently if you then drive and then have to recharge again before it has a holiday, it won't charge at speed again.

 

You can't make such a conclusion. There is also time degradation regardless how you use the battery. It may be that good thermally managed battery will be good for 1 million miles, but only if you drive those miles in 5 to 10 years. What will happen after 15 years?

Prius taxi can do half a milion miles on original battery, but normal users are still replacing theirs at 12-15 years, regardless of miles driven. Prius battery is relatively cheap to replace, at least compared to BEV, but still, many will think twice if it's worth replacing it on such an old car. How many will replace BEV battery for $10+k?

Will average car age go down with BEVs?

 

I wonder if a 2019 car will be relevant in 2034? Will cars with steering wheels still be allowed on roads? The transition between 1905 and 1920 saw a majority horse drawn vehicles replaced by almost no horse drawn vehicles 15 years later.

 

My guess would be that cars with steering wheels would still exist, i know autonomous cars is the future, but i dont think they will be perfected so much they can completely take away the control from the driver within 15 years. But yea... never know, tesla has made big progress (using tesla as an example cause they actually can drive autonomously and is way ahead of any other car manifacturer). Have u seen those videos where tesla`s predict accidents 2 sec before they happen? Its amazing, u just hear the "beep-beep beep-beep" and 2 seconds later two cars ahead of u or in the intersection or where-ever crashes. i also know nVidia has made progress in autonomous driving tech, havent seen any of their tech being tested tho.. But big things r gonna happen between now and 15 yrs from now... My guess would also be that some old car manifacturers will dissapear cause they didnt transition to BEV`s and Autonomous driving tech earlier, and new ones will rise such as Rivian (and possibly Bryton, have no idea if they will actually succeed... I also doubt Faraday will succeed). Its so many idiot "car enthusiasts" that says "diesel/petrol and manual gearbox is the future!", theyre JUST like the people in 1900 that refused to accept that cars is taking over for horse and carriage. Whenever i say this on "car pages" i get lots of hate tho lol, its hillarious pissing "car enthusiasts" off, being a car enthusiast isnt what it once was.

 

Do you think about how readily a static spark can ignite the vapors around the pump nozzle whenever you fill up? Then there is no system is place keeping someone from hosing the station down with highly flammable liquid from the easily accessed pump.

EV plugs have more than a hot, neutral, and ground connector. Some of the extra ones are for communication between the car and charger. If the plug isn't properly seated, proper communication isn't established, and the cable isn't energized.

 

4x better seems a lot better. Way back when motorola led in cell phones, their big challenge was battery size and weight to make the phones better. The dynaTac released in 1983 weighed 2.5 lbs and was knicknamed the brick because the battery kind of made it look like a brick. 30 minutes of talk time on a fully charged battery that took 10 hour to charge. The microTac in 1989 had a better battery, it weighed 12.3 ounces mainly due to lighter more energy dense battery. Cost of these phones was in the thousands of dollars and the best battery tech was used. nimh was state of the art in 1989, lion came in 1994 in the microTac elite weighing 3.9 ounces and costing $600 less than 1/6 of than the batteries and phones in 1983.

Of course this lion tech was expensive back in 1994 and not really suitable to the duty cycle and temperatures of vehicles. Here we have the ev1 in 1996 using lead acid battery technology - 16.5 kwh @533kg. In 1999 they used a panasonics manufactured ovonics nimh pack - 26.4 kwh @ 521 kg. We don't have the full specs on the standard plus pack for the model 3, but the long range pack is 80.5 kwh (~76 kwh usable soc/94%) @ 478 kg. Energy to weight of the full battery pack in the last 20 years from the best nimh to highest volume liion is 3.3. That's about 6%/year. Costs have come down faster. The best cost metric is cost of the pack /mile range and this has probably come down at about 14%/year in the last 8 years.

Probably the best metric is cost/(mile range). I expect in 2030 a pack that goes 250 miles in an aerodynamic 4 door sedan will be about 62 kwh @ 312 kg and cost the manufacturer around $6K. That is with no major breakthroughs. 312 kg should be good enough ;-)

The liquid cooled tesla/panasonic and lg chem batteries are less expensive at the pack level than the toyota/panasonic or Nissan air cooled packs.

 

It is. But still not good enough.

My 1972 Buick Skylark Grand Sport had a range of 266 miles, and you could refill it in 5 minute almost anywhere. Why should I tolerate worse range and charge rate than that nearly 60 years later? Answer: I won't.

Modern cars pretty much always have a range of 450 miles or better, and can refill in a few minutes. A 250 mile range is not even close to sufficient for most people, especially with the slow and sparse charging infrastructure we have now (and, yes, V3 charging is still slow), unless you don't plan to leave the city. Just this weekend I took a 260 mile round-trip with little charging opportunities. This was to visit family for the holidays. In my Prime, that was a third of a tank, no need to stop. In a 250 mile car, I'd have had to stop twice - once on the way down for 10-15 minutes, once on the way back for 20-30 minutes. That's a waste of my time.

Now, with a battery breakthrough, you're talking 450-600 miles of range and that entire trip is done with home charging, no need to stop, and no hassle - the same as my Prime does now, for $23,400 for the top model after tax credits.

 

not good enough for you ..... but it's not about an individual, it's about 100's of thousands for which it's good enough.

But what about the hundreds of thousands that don't have your Buick .....

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It's good enough for hundreds of thousands out of hundreds of millions, like I've been saying. Actually, I think it's good enough for a few percent (a few million) of the US population.

But a few percent isn't enough.

 

we needed you back when hybrids weren't growing as fast as ev's .... to continually drone on about how "it's not enough".
It's never too late to switch complaints

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Hybrids work. I've driven them all over the country.

 

Don't you ever get tired of the same futile debate??? It's time to un-watch this thread.