Toyota Doubts WideSpread Acceptance of Plug-In Hybrids

For the time being, PHEV's should garner at least a similar demand as home solar panels. Not "widely" adopted, but certainly niche customers yield a decent demand. People who have the means and who don't mind the high initial cost with a gradual return that wasn't always financial should produce a steady stream of buyers. I had to wait 6 months to get my solar panels and that was in 2004. I suspect the demand is higher today.

 

daniel is right. its not fair to compare just the cost of operating the EV especially since there is expected to be little or no repair AT ALL. its very conceivable to do what only a very small percentage of regular cars do and that is to go thru a significant portion of the car's lifetime with no major repairs but that is one side.

ignoring what will be done on both cars, bearing, brakes, etc..

the only real maintenance is windshield wiper fluids

 

If someone were to 'weld-up' MG1+MG2 and replace the ICE with another battery-inverter system, and some extra batteries, they'd have a nice EV for City use. It would not be a road-warrior but certainly an urban goin' for groceries car. Then add a trailer hitch with small, autonomous generator-charger, they could extend the range, if needed. But this takes more than just casual speculation.

Bob Wilson

 

And on my Xebra, there's one zirt that needs 2 or 3 pumps from a grease gun twice a year.

You cannot "weld up" MG1 and MG2 because they're on separate parts of the drive train, all of which are united by the PSD and controlled by the computer. If you locked them together somehow, it would prevent the entire system from functioning.

The Prius is the worst possible choice for an EV because the motors are too small, and have different characteristics, so you'd have to replace them, and you'd have to scrap everything that makes the Prius what it is. The Prius is designed from the ground up to be a hybrid: a car where the gas engine and electric motors are operated as an integrated unit and controlled by a computer designed to do nothing else. As a donor car for an EV, a Prius has no advantage over a much cheaper Corolla.

 

Daniel's right. Even if gas costs per mile (at 50 mpg and $2.50 a gallon) is only 5 cents, doesn't mean total cost of ownership of EVs wouldn't be cheaper.

And good luck hoping for gas prices to be averaging less than $4.00 over the next 15 years.

 

If find it is the other way around. I'm too lazy to want to drive to the stupid gas station. Plugging the car in is easier than clicking my seatbelt. We EV drivers are the lazy ones... and quite happy to admit it.

It is beyond *might*. Having an EV means that we can't afford to NOT have PV. My $10k up-front cost covers my house and my car... basically for the rest of my life. How could I afford NOT to do that?

As others have pointed out, you don't get the *real* cost by just taking the price at the pump and the price at the electric meter and comparing. Let's figure out how many people die from gasoline usage compared to how many die from electricity generated by natural gas. Or Wind. Or solar.... and yes, or coal. To get REAL numbers, it is very complicated. Coal vs oil, etc. What all do you count? What is a human life worth? Should we be adding these prices into the cost of the energy?

0.25. Or 4 miles per kWh.

Well, there's the continuation of oil use. The pollution it creates. The fact that the car now needs all the tuneups and and oil changes and muffler and plugs and air cleaners (etc) that a gas cars needs. The deal that we have to drag around the engine, transmission, gas tank, exhaust system, etc. The real biggie for me is that PHEVs will have silly little EV ranges (40 miles?) when if the gas engine were replaced with more batteries, I could have 150...200...300 miles or range instead. So we load up a PHEV with all this extra stuff for the few times (or no times) that millions of drivers would need the extra range. It is like a carpenter carrying a sledge on his tool belt just in case he comes upon a really big nail.

You get credit for over-production every month that you can use for the other months in the year. After one full year, you tally it all up, and if you owe money, you pay. If they owe you credit, it is lost, and you start from zero.

How about it? Just about as relevant as the replacement cost for a gas engine. Modern batteries will last the life of the car.

For who? For what? Do you not sleep at least four yours per day? The average car is driven less than four hours per day, and parked the other 20. I think we can find a few moments in there to charge.

 

It's got to be pure EV baby... all the way..

I love this:

 

The EV vs PHEV advocates are barking up the two sides of the same tree. Consumers with different uses will choose one over the other.

Look at my situation e.g: I cannot completely move to public transport/walking/bicycle for 3 trips a month, each one 100 miles round trip. For the rest of the month, the car is used in 15 - 30 mile round trips. One car fills all of our requirements.

Would I rationally buy a 120 miles EV range car for my 3 trips a month, and waste 90+ miles of EV range the other 27.5 days in the month ? Of course not. I would either keep a short range 30 mile EV AND a gasser, or a single 15 mile PHEV.

 

Ineed, you are correct of course. We need different options for different situations. Some folks will be well served with a pure BEV. For others a PHEV would be the best solution. There is no one perfect vehicle technology for every situation.

For my part in this discussion, I was simply responding to the question, "what's not to love." Turns out that there is plenty not to love. If the question were, "what *is* to love" my answer would have been a bit different.

 

That's the Volt. Prius PHEV will use the ICE to accelerate hard and at high speed.

 

Why can't they just make a plug in with the existing battery that was used to drive GM's EV1?

 

GM sold the patents for large format NiMH batteries to Chevron when they cancelled the EV1 program. Chevron has been sitting on the technology ever since. [ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasys]Cobasys - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]


I personally don't think that Toyota has any interest in selling a PHEV right now. They are the currently leader in hybrid sales and just invested millions in a battery plant to make NiMH batteries. Why would they want to change to Lion? Toyota will experiment and keep up with technology but I don't expect a production PHEV any time soon.

 

well, Toyota, you can go on as you have and just let 3rd party companies do the plug in conversions or offer the option on a dealer installed upgrade. now factory installed would be what i would want, but that would cost a lot more money to bring to market.

 

Here is a solution to the charging problem for apts. and opportunity charging (work, parking lots, on the street, etc.).

Verdek-EV :: Go Green, Save Money

 

Your assumption is probably correct. Toyota is doing very well selling the Prius in its' gas hybrid current form. After the market is near saturation with current current technology hybrids, then Toyota can extend their market lead by introducing a plug-in version.

Toyota seems to do a better job at long term planning where American manufacturers (in general) seem to plan only until the end of the current fiscal quarter.

Keith

 

The key question is can a PHEV and/or EV be a profitable vehicle? If the present answer is no, then the lack of a production version is completely understandable. If the present answer is yes, then the answer involves some incompetence or market manipulation. It's that simple. So what is the situation?

 

Volatile fuel prices make PH(EV)s an uncertain product. Personally I don't think they will be made in any quantitites that will substantially affect pollution until carbon taxation raises fuel to *at least* $4/gallon, and perhaps closer to $6/gallon.

 

what it boils down to is that for $2-4000 (depending on who ya talk to) Toyota instituted a hybrid that gets 50% better mileage comparable cars in a long term solution.

with battery tech as it is today. to get another 50% increase over the Pri, we are talking battery costs of $15,000 or 400 to 750% more. as we have seen, the hymotion is a great option if you have a shorter commute and can charge at work, you are looking at HUGE mileage numbers as long as the commute is kept to 15 miles one way. but without charging at work. you are looking at the benefit of EV one way and the overall mileage improvement which can be 50% greater than the standard Pri, but also can only be an incremental improvement.

so untill we can halve the battery cost and boost the performance a bit, it will not fly. what we basically need is long term EV options for $100 a mile.

 

You are lucky My son had the same deal in Las Vegas. he wondered why his bill was so high one summer month; I think the snake ranch used 1600kw at about $.10 per. I don't think he would have like the bill for that consumption here at many hundreds.