Featured Toyota Believes Fuel Cell Prices Will Match Hybrids

I believe withe plug ins and increasing vehicle efficiency, people will come to accept the higher cost for renewable fuels. That still leaves the hurdle of building hydrogen infrastructure. There are other renewable fuel options that the infrastructure cost is less, or could even use the existing one.

FCEV use high pressure(10k psi) gas tanks. These are heavy and bulky. A liquid hydrogen tank would be smaller. The issue with the liquid is that without an impractical amount of insulation or active cooling, it will heat up, and some vented to keep pressure down.

BMW had a bi-fuel hydrogen car that used liquid hydrogen. Just parked, the tank would be empty in a week.

Hydrogen is trucked to stations in liquid form because it costs less in diesel per kg that way.

 

They use materials not subject to this.

How much does it currently cost for hydrogen at a filling station? And what is the range per kg of fuel?

 

Was posted earlier. $13 to $16 a kg in California, IIRC. Closer to $16.

It would be lower without the renewable portion mandate, but then you are swapping one fossil fuel for another. A CNG Camry hybrid would go about the same distance as a Mirai for a given amount of natural gas.

 

And this kg should get a FCV how far?

 

I've seen number from about 60 - 75 miles per kg depending on city/highway and the specific test being run.

Compare to about 50-60 mpg in a Prius for $2.50 - $4.00 per gallon

Mike

 

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60 miles for $16. That's not cheap, and likely why Honda includes the fuel in their Clarity fuel cell lease.

 

Toyota includes $15,000/3 years of fuel.

 

Cost to refill | California Fuel Cell Partnership
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Efficiency ranges from 56 mi/kg for the hyundai Nexo to 66 mi/kg for the clarity and mirai. For reference the mirai is similar in size to the camry hybrid that gets 52 mpg, the clarity phev has more cargo room than the fuel cell version and gets 42 mpg and 110 mpge on electricity. For reference the mirai fuel cell has less passenger and cargo room than the camry hybrid and but the camry hybrid needs only 1.3 gallons of gas to to as far as hydrogen. If we take a kg of hydrogen to cost $15, then it is less expensive to fuel the hybrid at gas prices less than $11.50. The clarity phev has 4 cubic feet more of cargo room and handles better than the fuel cell but that is probably very similar. If we take california's renewable fuel of 1/3 renewables in the fuel cell car then 3 kg of hydrogen take us 204 miles, if we convert the 1 kg as renewable electricity it would go 169 miles on that if it wasn't converted and compressed simply charged up, the other 2 if we are natural gas well methanol would get us 32 on each of those or 233 miles on the same feedstock (if it was flex fuel methanol) but the cost of fuel would be much lower than hydrogen.

 

undoubtedly part of the reason that Toyota made the Mirai only a four-seater. Keeps the weight down - the smaller they build it. They had to get a waiver on some safety issue, & whether or not it was finally taken care of is anybody's guess.
.

 

Ah so they can make it up in volume.

 

I'm not sure this is the case. Honda's Clarity has seating for five, is a midsize (versus the subcompact Mirai) and gets the same rated fuel economy.

 

iduno if it's got a bigger hydrogen tank - accounting for (greater range) - but Honda has stated that this Clarity styling gives it the lowest drag CD of any of its cars (they're still tight-lipped as to exactly what that drag CD is) So that's a possibility.
Weight-wise, the clarity is 4100 lb, while the Mirai is 4,075. So general rule smaller is lighter, but in this case, it seems Clarity just had a better job done on it.
.

 

The traction battery is required to disconnect during an accident to depower the high voltage equipment. For some reason, Toyota didn't do that with the Mirai.

Honda did a better job of packaging.

Mirai


Clarity

 

Years ago a O2 cylinder failed on a Qantas flight and went right through the aircraft wall and into the ocean (we'll never know what the exact failure was). Pilot conducted emergency descent (to get air for the passengers) and somehow landed safely. That was metal tank, today they have moved to composite (carbon fibre etc) for aircraft. But I never saw a metal cylinder fail on the heavy duty type shown in the Myth Busters. Aircraft would have special lower weight tanks.

Love those Myth Buster guys...right up my alley

 

Just for a little perspective a blast from the past -

Let's look at the assumptions from 5 years ago
Toyota North American CEO: We're betting big on fuel cell cars | Fortune

Assumption 1) Batteries are heavier than hydrogen so a BEV is going to be a lot heavier than a fcv. The first part is true but the second false. The ballance of the car on a fcv is heavier for similar performance. Case in point the better handling larger passenger and cargo room tesla model 3 weighs about 300 lbs less than the mirai. The heavier weight really doesn't matter but the fuel cell vehicle is heavier not lighter.

Assumption 2) BEV prices will stay much higher than fcv prices because battery prices won't fall as fast as fuel cells. The bolt, leaf+, hyundai kona, tesla model 3 all cost less to manufacture than the mirai or clarity fuel cell. These should fall to around $6000 at the pack level for a 200 mile epa bev and $8000 for a 300 mile bev sedan. Today tesla is bellow $200/kwh and the others are all bellow $300/kwh. The model S 100 now has a 370 mile range further than any fuel cell, and it can be charged all over the country not only tiny parts. On the other hand toyota expected fuel cell vehicle costs to drop substantially by now but they have not.

Both are optimistic. They required a couple of technological innovations to lower costs drastically. That 300 miles costs $59 at the least expensive hydrogen stations before toyota and taxpayers pay for it and that is subsidized by about $20K/fcv to build the stations before that price. For reference a model 3 would cost about $9 to charge at home for that distance and $28 at a california super charger. There were not 30 stations by 2015, there are now 40 stations and 24 in the process of being built and the state has spent $158M so far on top of federal money to build them. It will be 2021 at the earliest to get to 68+ stations.

By that accounting he is talking about 500,000 fcv sold a year world wide in 2030 (15 years after the mirai in 2015) but remember the clarity was 2009. Who knows it could happen. Those lowly plug-ins sold 2M vehicles world wide last year 10 years after the first tesla roadster left the line. Lentz gave the interview talking about fuel cells being a better investment than continuing to invest in the rav4 ev. I wonder how many rav4 evs would sell this year if they had a the model 3's 80.5 kwh batter and its motors? For reference the mirai sales rose 200% in may in the US to 248 vehicles. The model 3 only grew to 13,950 units in the US ;-)

 

Well, that was badly wrong - but to be fair, things have changed very quickly:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-12/electric-vehicle-battery-shrinks-and-so-does-the-total-cost

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 | Bloomberg NEF

A Behind the Scenes Take on Lithium-ion Battery Prices | BloombergNEF

Battery Power's Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal, Gas | BloombergNEF

I think that many forecasts ignored the synergy between the car market, the truck/bus market, and the industrial energy storage market. The economies of scale ramped up a whole lot faster than anyone thought they would. (of course, hindsight is 20/20).

When I look at things like electric bus adoption rates in China, and wind/solar/battery combined power generation facilities, and the ability of used Li/ion batteries to work in homes (Tesla Powerwall) as part of a solar power system, I start feeling optimistic that we'll be able to move away from CO2-emitting technology before we manage to melt all the glaciers.

 

Hydrogen supply pinch affects San Francisco fuel-cell drivers

 

shortage happened last summer as well. If these things are going to work infrastructure will have to get more expensive to add redundant supplies. I think last summer toyota gave people loaner vehicles.

 

Very reassuring.