The Volt's superior battery range will save more money!

Discussion in 'Gen 1 Prius Plug-in 2012-2015' started by POTUS, Jul 26, 2011.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Corwyn,
    I wasn't trying to speak against your spread sheet. It seems correct. The post was trying to use sarcasm to make the volts operating costs seem higher than they are. Your sheet shows more of the correct valuation if you are comparing things just on cost of fuel.

    I dropped the 67% on you because that is what customers have been reporting. Unfortunately it isn't daily, so 35 miles of gas are not saved each day, but it is a good reference point on a chart for the universe of volts. Individual mileage and preferences will vary.
     
  2. POTUS

    POTUS New Member

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    My apologies to those who didn't see that it was satire.

    Yes, I was deliberately poking fun at government motors and the Volt.

    I was trying to be pretty blatantly obvious about it with the name of POTUS, the teleprompter, references to 'Tim' (Geithner) and 'Ben' (Bernanke), my 'personal' approval of the $7500 tax rebate for the Volt (and a lower one for the PHV), the redistribution of wealth bit, and vetoing the plan from Harry (Reid), the deficit in half, etc.

    But, the references seem to have been missed by many upon first review.

    To me, the Volt is clearly inferior in just about every way:

    1> It's more expensive, especially with the $ealers selling them for $8,000 over MSRP during the current 5 state rollout. That's why the Volt's numbers are so low, and they will increase dramatically once the 50 state rollout hits and supply catches up with demand to drop the price to MSRP (or below). At MSRP with the $7500 tax credit (and maybe $XXXX California credit), the price isn't too horrible. (But the PHV will outsell it by at least 2:1 - 10:1 if Toyota can produce them).

    2> It's heavy, and extremely inefficient. Why can't any other vehicle besides the Prius pull out 50mpg numbers from their hybrids? The volt has the absolute utopia of what a gas engine should produce. It does not drive the wheels directly, it only generates electricity. That means every single second of it's running life it can run at *EXACTLY* the precise RPM where it will be the most efficient. It can have absolutely perfect air/fuel ratios, it even gets the bonus of premium gas, yet they can't do better than 37mpg on gas? I don't get it. :confused:

    3> It uses premium fuel instead of regular like the Prius. This is just dumber than a bag of hammers. There's no excuse for using gas that's $.20 more expensive for nearly zero benefit. If the Volt owner actually uses the gas engine, they'll take a decent hit there in the price difference. (If they don't, why not buy a Leaf??)

    4> Sure, under absolutely optimal conditions where the owners only drive 30-50 miles per day, in some tiny window, the Volt might be more cost effective. But outside that marginal reality, the Prius wins in every way. Resale value for one. Does anyone here want to bet against the Prius PHV having a far, far higher resale value than the Chevy Volt after 10 years? That would certainly be a sucker's bet.

    5> The Volt engine is DIRTY, at least when compared to the Prius. Toyota has developed and refined that engine for over a decade. To me it looks like government motors took an engine off the shelf that is barely as efficient as the Cruze Eco. There's multiple reasons why the 2011 Volt doesn't qualify for the HOV lane in California. First, there's the dirty engine, then there's the substandard warranty on the battery, then no way to pre-heat the cats, etc. Chevy is working to correct these things, and there's rumors that the 2012 might have a 'California' version that qualifies, but I sure don't see it listed as qualified on the ca.gov site, while the PHV already is!

    6> Repairs cost. Just like resale value, I don't think anyone here would take a bet even with 2:1 odds that the Volt will cost less to maintain than a Prius PHV.

    7> (rumor) Government motors is losing money on every Volt, so what exactly is the point? Just to have a vehicle produced by a company partially owned by the government so the government can give it a tax rebate under the phony disguise of saving the earth? I'm not buying it. (No, literally, I'm not buying the Volt, I'm waiting for the PHV).

    I just don't see a niche for the Volt. For anyone driving less than 80-100 miles per day, the Leaf is clearly the winner. It's close to $10k cheaper, will last longer, cost less to run, will be more reliable, has immediate access to the carpool lane, etc.

    For anyone OUTSIDE the Leaf's range of 80-100 miles per day, that means you're also outside the 35-50 mile 'optimal' range of the Volt. In that case the Prius wins hands down in every single way, for every one of the reasons listed above.

    The only extremely weak argument I can see for the Volt's existence is the person/family that has a commute that falls within the Volt's 'optimal' range and then wants to take trips over 80-100 miles, and can only have one vehicle.

    :fear: I fear that such a mythical person is an endangered species already. I find it very, very difficult to justify purchasing a Volt over the Prius PHV in 95%+ of real world circumstances, especially when you do the math of all costs involved (price of electricity, premium fuel costs, repairs, resale value, etc).

    The original point of the Volt saving more money because it's battery lasts longer is utter nonsense, to try and say the Prius PHV is worse is just an absolute joke. (Yes, it was meant as a joke, as the false basis of the entire post). The math there is just criminally stupid, and it's the same math I'm disappointed to see the government try to foist on us every day. :(

    I'm an American, and disappointed enough in American cars that I'm buying Japanese. We're better than this, American ingenuity is usually second to none in the world, and I want to buy American, but it just doesn't make sense financially. :(
     
  3. gwmort

    gwmort Active Member

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    1. Got mine at MSRP, hundreds of dealers are selling them at that price, if you can't find one you're just lazy. Toyota is only planning on selling 16,000 PHV next year, want to bet BOTH the Leaf and the Volt outsell PHVs 2 to 1?

    2. Its more efficient than a prius, combined mpge is about 20% higher. Even in CS mode, its much more efficient than 97% of the cars on the road.

    3. Only buying 7.5 gallons every 1000-1200 miles I really don't care about the 20 cents.

    4. Yes, the volt is more cost effective; how can you compare resell prices of a car there are none on the road older than 7 months with another car with none on the road at all? Time will tell.

    5. Only compared to a prius. Ironically though that PHV commuting to work at 70mph in the HOV lane will be burning more gas and polluting more than the Volt in the regular lane (assuming still w/i AER).

    6. Pure speculation, they have about the same level of complexity mechanically I don't think it will be very different.

    7. Toyota lost money on every prius for a long time, I don't get your point.

    niche - anyone that wants more efficiency than a prius but more range than a Leaf. Don't box everyone into x miles a day groups, think about how many millions of people live between say 50 and 150 miles of a beach (100-300 miles roundtrip), some of them might like the ability to drive there on the weekend but still commute 30-50 miles a weekday.

    2012 Leaf is $5000 less than 2012 Volt, and I've read of many Leaf owners needing to call for roadside assistance but no Volt owners. (nothing against the Leaf, just saying)

    As for immediate access, theres the car I've driven more than 6000 miles in and theres sitting at your computer waiting to get an e-mail with a hint about what color you can pick next year.


    The PHV is going to be a great car, and I'm sure Toyota will be very successful with them (and replace the regular prius altogether). However that doesn't mean you need to hate on the Volt.
     
  4. kithmo

    kithmo Couch Potato

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    When the Chevrolet Volt (or Vauxhall Apera here in the UK) is running on ICE and the engine is not driving the wheels, how do they work out that it is doing 37 mpg ?
    For example, if it was driven flat out for 37 miles would it use 1 gallon ?
    or if it was driven very economically for 37 miles would it still use 1 gallon ?
    Surely the consumption for charging the battery should be in gallons per hour.
    :confused:
     
  5. TonyPSchaefer

    TonyPSchaefer Your Friendly Moderator
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    Thanks for the clarification. I was seriously and quite literally researching your registration IP and reviewing previous activity to decide whether to ban you outright. Sounds rude, I know, but that was one heck of a first post red flag.

    Satire is usually very well received around here but in this case, we didn't know you well enough (or at all) to know that you were joking.
    Again, thanks for the clarification and welcome to Priuschat. :welcome:
     
  6. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    Phew, "mr President", for one moment, I thought USA had become Portugal and Greece when referred to calculations...
    LOL
     
  7. gwmort

    gwmort Active Member

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    Your Mileage will vary.

    37 is the combined average, its ratings are higher and lower for city and highway driving depending on how you're using it just like any other car.

    Of course it will get worse gas mileage flat out at 100 mph than driven economically at 55 mph.

    The ICE does not raise the state of charge of the battery (beyond a narrow operating range). It only generates enough power to keep up with demand, it doesn't just chug away for hours charging itself up. When the car stops, it stops, when the car is driven harder it works harder to keep up with demand.
     
  8. Insight-I Owner

    Insight-I Owner 2006 Insight-I MT + 2011 Prius

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    The instant I saw POTUS I knew it was fishy.

    Now THIS is satire:
    Borowitz Report
     
  9. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Disregarding total production and focusing entirely on this market doesn't seem constructive.
    .

    Disregarding the emissions requirement doesn't seem constructive either. Of course, I can't imagine being able to take advantage of an HOV lane at 70 mph. The HOV benefit comes when traffic is too congested to travel that fast.
    .

    Isn't the actual problem the lack of choice?

    If there was also a more affordable model which focused less on power and more on engine-efficiency and emission-rating, wouldn't everyone be happy?
    .
     
  10. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    1. Take Leaf out of the bet, to be fair. Now, according to what you may want folks to THINK, you'd be saying Volt will be EQUAL (1 to 1) in sales to PHVs.
    OK !!! I'll take THAT bet, even at 3 to 1 odds. iow, don't jack up Volt statistics, by adding the Leaf, which is outselling the Volt, 3 to 1.

    btw, just because folks are disgusted with GM's false advertising over the past 7 decades, doesn't mean they hate Volts. Sad? ... that they don't cost less, and get better mileage? Well, Yes, of course.
    Lastly - 100's of dealers? Um, if you take "300" dealers as your fictional/honest "hundreds of dealers", (since only around 3,000 Volts have been sold ... never mind that some dealers sell them back & forth to each other) that might represent 10 cars per honest dealer are only being sold ... and then you haven't allowed for any of the dishonest dealers ... PLUS, then when you take the "back & forth sales" between dealerships, it looks even uglier. Not much bragging there, if you do the math.

    Don't get me wrong ... I'm glad you find the Volt terrific ... and that your driving trips fall within the window where it works for you, mileage wise, and that you can afford the car of your choice. I hope there are many many buyers out there that it will similarly work for. And if the buying public choice in the following months results in tepid sales, like it is with hybrid Hondas ... well ... what can anyone say.

    .
     
  11. POTUS

    POTUS New Member

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    1. Thanks, but I'm not lazy. I test drove a Volt down in Santa Clara, CA on Stevens Creek, they had ONE in stock, no more coming in soon, and wouldn't budge from $8,000 over MSRP. (There should be a flood of new Volt's by August/September though).

    I called around to every other $ealer in Northern California, they were either out of stock with a waiting list (if they're selling at MSRP), or they're price gouging. I also need a somewhat specific color range and features as this is a work vehicle.

    When I shop, I do a LOT of legwork and get the best price possible. I've bought used cars as far away as Virginia, Washington, and Los Angeles and either driven them back or had them shipped over. On our most recent new vehicle purchase we got $14,000 off MSRP after shopping around. (Last model year of a car, luxury vehicle for the wife).

    Lazy? I don't think so.

    2. Combined MPGE isn't really a tried and true method, it's just something the EPA pulled out of it's hat to try and rate these new vehicles. I do know the Prius' engine is far cleaner than the Volt's, so unless we're talking about the distance between 13 miles and the Volt's 37 miles, the Prius is always cleaner. (I'm pretty sure even under battery power it's more efficient getting more miles for a specific charge).

    3. You may be one of the few people that have a medium commute and have a use beyond 100 miles, I'm thinking those folks are endangered, not extinct. ;]

    4. Yes, time will tell, but we can predict with sufficient accuracy. How do you think the lease companies calculate residual value? In general they're pretty accurate. KBB put the Volt's resale value at $17,000 after 36 months, or 41%, where the Prius is over 46%. Even if we take into consideration the $7500 tax rebate that only goes to 51% (and we'd have to make the same calculation on the Prius with the lower rebate). The value might even be higher due to the coveted car pool lane stickers, which boosted hybrid resale values by $4,000 before. Out here in the real world the Prius has been selling for closer to 70-80% of it's new value after 3 years, and this residual gap will grow as the Volt edges closer to it's lower warranty. Any way you slice it, the varying federal and state tax credits along with the HOV nonsense make this very shaky ground beyond 'known Japanese vehicle having higher residual value than completely unknown American vehicle with new technology'. Time will tell, but you can see where I'd bet my money.

    5. Comparing a less efficient vehicle running on electricity at a slower speed against a more efficient vehicle running on gas at a higher speed. Sounds like apples to oranges to me.

    6. Speculation? Not really. The Prius has a proven track record, the only difference with the PHV is a decent boost to the battery capacity (and motor/torque output I think). The Volt is a 100% new model, no parts are carried over from a previous generation. Even if we're not talking electric and an untested battery, a true first model year car will almost always have more problems. That's just a fact of the car world. And American cars for the past 10 years at least in my experience have needed far, far more in the way of repairs and service. Let's hope the Volt can buck the trend of history.

    7. Exactly, I don't get the point of the Volt. GM is good at bleeding cash, we know that, but I don't see what their plan is here. Heck, the Leafs are sold at a loss too.

    Niche: I don't think the Volt is more efficient, only in a very, very narrow operating range for a small segment of the population. The Prius is more efficient under 13 miles, and it's more efficient after 37 miles, by a very large margin. Personally, some days I'll drive 5 miles, others I'll need to do 100-200. In almost every circumstance the Prius wins (my driving needs are also quite out of the norm).

    On the Leaf $5000 difference, you're right. I was under the mistaken impression that it was about $32,500, and not $35,200. But $5,000 is still $1000/year for 5 years, or almost $100 per month. That's not chump change. =]

    Your next point is correct too, it sucks sitting with my current junk mileage vehicles getting them repaired constantly while waiting for the PHV to come out. Sucks sucks sucks. You win that one. I don't hate the Volt, but I do hate my American cars that are falling apart and getting lousy mileage while I wait for the PHV. Buying American again scares me (financially). I use these vehicles for business and would like something predictable. I really think we should be able to beat the foreign car makers at this game!

     
  12. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    Nice prediction, but Nissan just anounced that Leaf sale is up to 10,100 globally so far. No one knows how many of any car is going to be sold in the next year. It is difficult to outsell a product that is less expensive.

    Report: Global Nissan Leaf sales top 10,100
    Report: Global Nissan Leaf sales top 10,100 — Autoblog Green
     
  13. gwmort

    gwmort Active Member

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    Toyota Targets at Least 16,000 U.S. Plug-In Prius Sales - Bloomberg

    Based on this article.

    I also predict about 16,000 PHV sales and more than 32,000 Volt sales in the US next year and more than 32,000 Leaf sales (to be clear).
     
  14. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    The Volt (compared to the Prius (cordless) and the Leaf) has a triangular niche which extends from a 74 mile commute at electric rates up to 1/40 the price of gas, and down to 108 at electric rates 1/400 the price of gas.
     
  15. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    I give the Volt fans a point for persistence, but it is silly to frame the personal budget argument as cost/mile of fuel, when so many other important cost factors are grossly unequal:

    Acquisition cost, and associated interest;
    Reliability;
    Longevity;
    Maintenance;
    Insurance

    My Prius is paid off, and has a high likelihood of lasting another 150k miles if not more. Insurance costs $20 a month, while maintenance and repairs the first 7 years/130k miles have been 1 cent a mile. In short, my current ongoing TCO costs are 7 cents a mile + insurance.

    A Volt lessee pays around 700% of my current costs to drive 1000 miles a month.
     
  16. gwmort

    gwmort Active Member

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    Yes it is cheaper to not buy a new car than to buy one. I think to be relevant you need to start the comparison with you were going to get SOME new car so what are the savings options with your various choices.

    Truth is it would be more expensive for me to lease a Prius IV w/ Nav, or close enough to be a negligible difference. Acquisition cost on a volt lease is identical to a Leaf lease.

    I've got a bumper to bumper warranty for the three years I am leasing it, so I'm not terribly worried about reliability and maintenance. At 6400 miles my oil life is still around 80% with only 2000 miles on the ICE or so, I changed the oil on my prius every 5,000 miles, so you can factor that into your consideration of maintenance.

    My insurance compared to my prius went up marginally for the higher priced vehicle, but not significantly enough to impact my decision.

    One thing that is difficult to convey is that it is better in person than on paper. The experience of driving it is amazing. Most people I let drive it "get it", I have quite a few converts in my family and circle of friends.

    I have never been happier with a new car, nor had better customer service, even from Toyota. In 2014 I'll move on from the PHEV to a BEV (I am certain of it now after seeing the Tesla Model-S last week). The age of electrification has begun.
     
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  17. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    I presented the cost argument as stated because the Prius will likely last through at least 3 Volt lease cycles, and with a bit of luck, 5+

    Oil changes -- and all other maintenance and repair costs accrued so far are accounted for in my penny/mile calculation. Re insurance, one of the hidden costs of leasing a car is losing choice in what insurances are bought. At this point in my Prius' life I self insure the car's remaining value and save premiums. I'm happy to say that I do not worry about theft -- hail damage took care of that worry ;)
     
  18. POTUS

    POTUS New Member

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    You guys obviously have more experience with electric propulsion than I do, but how exactly do these numbers work?

    Where can I get electricity at 1/40th the price of gas, or better yet 1/400th! Wow!

    Here in California, electricity prices are $.15/kwh. So if the Volt (for example) has a 16kwh battery, and 8kwh is the actual usable bit/charge needed for 37 mile range, that comes out to $.032/mile.

    Where a standard 3rd gen Prius gets 50mpg+ on 1 gallon of gas, at a local price of $3.60, that comes out to $.072/mile.

    So I'm only seeing electric being about half the cost. I googled electricity prices across the US, and some areas are much lower at $.09/kwh, some even $.07/kwh, but that only translates to 1/4th the cost of gas under optimal conditions. Maybe 2am charging rates are 10 times cheaper than day rates somewhere? Or we're talking Solar?

    Sorry, just curious on the math how I can get to 1/40th the price of gas or 1/400!
     
  19. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    ^^ I didn't look at Corwyn's SS, but my guess is that he is using cents/kwh and cents/gallon. He is not normalizing energy use, but showing under what conditions fuel_cost/mile is less expensive in a Volt than some other car.
     
  20. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    If you want to use official EPA figures, Volt takes 12.9 kWh from the wall to drive 35 EV miles. National average price of electricity is 11 cents per kWh, per EPA label.