Featured Tesla vs Bolt production ramp up

The low max charge rates of CCS and CHAdeMO in the wild has to do with what the charger owner is willing to pay for as oppose to what the standard is capable of.

 

What is the true max of the standard?

 

Off the top of head; 90kWh for CHAdeMO and 120kWh for CCS, but it could have been increased. VW's 300kWh system is based on CCS.

 

iirc both are higher than 50k, but if you ever find that plugshare is publishing a station as 50kW, you're lucky to see ANY that'll actually of those that'll even run up to 40.
Like @Trollbait says - QC station owners aren't hardly even willing to go near existing high QC levels. That's because electric feed costs get stratospheric to a shopkeeper who figures he's only drawing a handful if peeps in, for what, a sandwich or cup o' jo?
Think bigger transformer ... maybe an easy 5 figures, after permits, digging feedlines, poor a pad, install & hookup.
Then - it takes one BIG battery & BIG thermal management to handle those theoretical's. Only one player in town has both. So for the rest? Chicken & egg .... why have mongo power, w/out the car to suck up big power.
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It might be a minor hinderance, but localities not allowing chargers to charge users on actual kWh consumed. If you can only indirectly charge through time based parking fees, charging a car fast as possible is a disincentive.

 

400 KW - is the max for CCS with 1000V the maximum voltage.
There are some 350 KW stations being used to test cars using 800V. I believe the fastest charging commercially available car is the bolt which charges at 400V and slightly higher than 50 KW (IIRC 80KW) if the charger can do it.

For tesla I have no idea of the max, but 135 KW are being built and the model 3 can charge at that rate. There is a gigacharger protocol for the up coming roadster and truck that is faster.

 

Even around 100+ kW I know the handle and cord can start getting hot on warm sunny days. I've heard that to have anywhere near 300+kW stations will require liquid cooled cords and handles. That adds to the cost as well.

 

Ya know, it matters not what the standard is, it is what is available NOW when you pull up to the charger.

If the charger is the only game in town, slow, occupied, blocked, locked, inop or whatever matters little. You are dead in the water unless you have a way to recharge onboard. Or unless there are available working chargers within range. And that is the Tesla advantage.

 

Great point, Mike!

Also, no one has been able to demonstrate that charging at a theoretical 200 or 300 or 400 kW that it won't destroy your battery in the process. So, like Mike said, doesn't matter what they say someday could be possible. Right now Tesla is so far ahead of everyone that it truly isn't even a race.

 

Tesla, audi, and porsche have already tested much higher charge rates, as have bus manufacturers byd and proterra. I don't think battery destruction is a problem. IIRC the bolt can max out at around 80 KW, but even if it was provided only will average around 60 KW. The long range model 3 pack appears to be able to be charged faster than the 135 KW chargers.

Which means between the cars the tesla can charge much faster, and there is much more infrastructure in the US. Which is exactly your point I think.

On other news of the ramp up, tesla finally on friday has allowed us first day depositers in the hinterland of texas to order our model 3s. They say delivery is in 3-6 weeks if the long range pack and premium package are ordered. Dual motors are out to "mid 2018", and ability to buy the standard pack might happen at the end of the year. My guess is full federal tax credit will be available through the end of September, and $3750 available from october 2018. I'm going to wait to see what the dual pack offers and if they might allow us to buy a standard pack before the tax credit ends. New depositors probably will need to wait until at least the end of the year and will likely have to buy all the options to get it then. A bolt can be had quickly.

One bit of good news for tesla is the chinese government today said they will reduce tarrifs on US made cars.

 

That's only some 81 days! .... not that anyone's counting.
Dual Motor Model 3 Production Could Start in July

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Elon has said on record that anything above the current Supercharger max rates have the possibility to degrade batteries (at least at what size current Tesla batteries are) faster than what they feel comfortable with.

 

On telsa model S/X 100 kwh packs the max is 138 KW charge + overhead, they have 145 KW chargers to test this.
On the model 3 long range 80.5 kwh pack it appears from hill's link it is 116 KW (I'm not sure if this includes overhead).

The charge rate has to do with the battery chemistry and cooling. If that 116 KW doesn't include overhead then the new packs have a slightly faster about 5% charge rate. Hill's link from tony williams has it charging 210 miles in 30 minutes, while tesla is only promising 170 miles, and on hot or cold days that may happen. I have read other links than the tony williams one that hill had that they could be charged even faster than this.

The semi and roadster will charge much faster. Different chemistries can charge much faster than the one telsa uses on the model 3, but tesla thought these speeds were fast enough. JB Straubel said in 2012 that they could probably use a chemistry that fully charged in 10 minutes.

Anyway this is all off on a wild tangent. Batteries can safely be charged faster safer. The batteries in the model 3 charge faster than those in the bolt or leaf. There are also many more fast chargers for the model 3. In 10 years, I expect quick chargers to be faster and cars available to take those faster rates.

 

I agree that some future batteries will definitely be able to be charged faster than what the current ones can. I'm talking about the ones that are currently on the market, though. Things Elon and other Tesla executives have said and actions they have taken have shown that they don't feel comfortable increasing charging rates for the current batteries. As far as what other car manufacturers claim....we will see after they produce those cars and have a few years of battery degradation data.

 

Tesla sending flawed parts from suppliers to machine shops for rework
Tesla relied on too many robots to build the Model 3, Elon Musk says - The Verge

Bottom line, Tesla may not ship that many vehicles in the 2nd quarter, but instead work on production speed and quality, and hold some inventory to have a blow out and profitable 3rd quarter. A bad Q2 may be planned to keep US shipments bellow the 200,000 max for the federal tax credit, pushing full tax credits to the end of the year, and half credits until end of june 2019.

Too many robots and not enough people. This is a problem that toyota has talked about a lot. People give flexibility in fixing manufacturing problems. Tesla's location in Northern California really does make large highering then laying off people problematic. Their next factory is likely in china where more people and fewer robots make sense. Supplier problems were a known risk for anyone that has worked in manufacturing. Tesla's timetable was tight. I'm hoping that they are able to deliver over 20,000 model 3's in September.

Here's hoping they get it all worked out by the end of july. That should give them a bigger than expected loss in Q2, then a profit in Q3.

 

To paraphrase: "Nobody knew making cars could be so complicated".

 

We know Tesla likes to bring stuff in house if they can't find good suppliers. Will more and more of these parts eventually just be made by Tesla like the seats are now?

 

So, maybe this'll be where the rise of the robots will begin.

 

Musk trotted the media onto the M3 production line yesterday, interviewing about what he calls production hell. According to him, LESS robots & more people is curing the worst of the issues - meaning the worst part of limited production is over.

The rise of the AI robots will have to wait.
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