Tesla stock

I recall people doing that with a little online bookseller 20+ years ago.
Also, with a little DVD by mail company 20+ years ago.

Luckily I paid no attention to them

Maybe 4 or 5 years

Mike

 

Exactly.
Just look how happy the people are who consolidated into Enron and stuck with it.

Hopefully Tesla an American Company will be fine.

I believe all the gentleman was making people aware of what was the inherent danger in putting all you eggs into one basket and tripping busting most of the eggs.

His suggestion seemed to me to be, why not put your eggs into multiple baskets and multiple basket carriers with an index fund that contains 10 to 15 automakers their suppliers etc.- then you are in the auto sector and if one basket falls and bust so what you have 14 more baskets.

Actually risk takers who consolidate into one holding and live and die with the market are what build value for conservative individuals who hold all of the market- their loses turn into gains for those who are invested in the whole market.

 

Tesla has a very interesting and promising venture with robots

Tesla unveils its latest humanoid robot, Optimus Gen 2, in demo video | Ars Technica

They are now in the process of incorporating AI into these robots - fascinating!

 

Thanks for that. What about warnings to not drive too fast or while DUI.
And please wear your seatbelts.
And carry some emergency supplies in case your car breaks down or there is an earthquake.
And carry plenty of water to stay hydrated.
And some paper maps in case the GPS system goes down.


Mike

 

I’m up $370.

 

Go back to message 1173 in this thread where I referred to several November 2011 Forbes articles about Tesla and its valuations. They were based on the projected size of the market for EVs, the % that would have to be Teslas and the profit margins they would have to achieve to justify the price (adjusted) then.

I post this on a day when Tesla is up 2.5% to $175.66 (adjusted). Then (adjusted) it was as high as $407.

The market for EVs is slowing in % terms, the competition is increasing and Tesla is buying sales. Buyers have learned how to game the market by waiting till the last days of the quarter to buy. So all the dependencies are under pressure.

Yet Tesla can't build enough Semis (but they are going to build more RSN), the reviews of the CT are turning negative, they spend money on a roadster that may never come out (which can shed tires at 1 second accelerations according to Elon), they build factories that he only needs for geopolitical reasons (tariffs, ownership restrictions), all 4 mainline products are aging, FSD and stalkless controls and steering yokes are putting some off. Innovation for ego's sake. Elon becomes more erratic and public sentiment on products and management decline.

On the good side the robotics used to build the CT are getting good reviews and the plans to build a $25k car in a cheaper labor market need to be accelerated as competition is coming at that price point from many sources. What will the competition be like when the Model 2 is able to sell in volume?

 

agree with your post.

A good way to avoid all the drama - invest in a good index ETF that would include stakes in 8 or 9 different Automotive Manufacturing entities. Automotive Manufacturing is very competitive and cyclical - much too many variables to try and pick winners or losers.
Nowadays add in geopolitical factors, raw materials acquisition, rapidly changing technology, constantly changing Customer preferences, climate change pressures, emerging third world powerful players in Automobile Manufacturing and you have an absolute witch's brew of unpredictability.

 

And long term higher production costs based on rising worker support of German factory unionization. Either union costs or bribes to vote non union. Both add costs.

And didn't I read somewhere Mexican unions are starting to ask for a unionized workforce in the to-be-built factory for the M2?

 

Rising union costs will affect all carmakers.
Tesla will continue to drive down battery and production costs, and replace workers with machines as time goes by

 

But as a not unionized yet car maker, Tesla is uniquely going to be impacted. Both in becoming a union shop and then normal "negotiated" wage increases.

 

Or they can be competitive and keep the unions out

 

But at a cost to today's margins.

If your costs are constant, you need at least some combination of increasing volume, increasing revenue and/or improving margins to justify a more than average stock P/E multiplier. You don't want more costs at the same time competitive pressure is increasing and you are having to play the today's special deal pricing of the dealer-sold sales model.

And thus the bet on robotics. But at some point innovation becomes harder or is more widely implemented across the industry.

 

But costs aren’t constant.
So while labor costs go up, scale and innovation bring other costs down.
Tesla already gave everyone a raise (shortly after the UAW agreement was reached).

 

i'm down $200. as of friday, but i only have 20 shares.
i'm in for the long haul and have buy orders in $10. increments downward.

 

OK the production and sales numbers are out. Volume sellers 3/Y down 10% YOY. Over 10% undelivered/unsold. Amazed the stock has held up as well as it has today. -5.6% as I write.

 

Their biggest competitor (BYD) has seen an even bigger drop than Tesla. Tesla took the Q1 global lead that it lost in Q4 from BYD. Might be part of the reason why.