Tesla stock

Tesla treated as security threat in China as University Games loom as an example of the kind of thing that could cause Tesla in China to have to wall itself off from global Tesla. Or by extension, any country and any manufacturer who gathers information.

 

china is a risk, but musk is a risk taker

 

bump

 

looking good!

 

markets down, tesla up nearly 5%

 

How are the holders feeling now?

Up 14% over the past 1 year but down 26% YTD.

 

Yeah, Tesla is pretty volatile..

 

This holder is feeling great, about the stock. If I were still working I would buy more.
I also feel it is time to lock Elon in an engineering lab, kick him off the board, and give him a new title that doesn't include CEO, president, or the such.

 

Unfortunately, there's likely quite a few people out there that aren't feeling as great as you do, if they bought in the 260 range and just watched 30% vaporize in a few days. Such is the way the market moves......TSLA has been too prone to big moves every time someone gets their panties in a wad for me to feel comfortable putting money into for a while now. All it takes is some more shift of sentiment and it could go below 100. If it does, I'll probably nibble a bit. It's going to be hard pressed to move back up a significant amount for at least several months, but I sure as heck won't bet against it.

 

I don't see it going under 100. The market hates uncertainty, and Elon gave them tons of it yesterday.
As Tesla continues to execute, that market nervousness will dissipate and we will get some semblance of reality creeping back in.
The 'slow down' in growth is a roughly 34% level of growth. Many companies would love that level of growth.

And once the Model 2 (name undecided) hits in 2025, growth will be limited only be Tesla's ability to produce.

 

i wouldn't make any changes to elons status, and give him the stock he's looking for.
he may be the cause of short term anxiety, but his track record deserves long term faith.

 

Elon Musk says Chinese EV companies will 'demolish' competition without tariffs (msn.com)

"Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Wednesday warned that Chinese automakers will "demolish" their global competition without tariffs or other trade barriers.
His comments come after Chinese electric car company BYD, which makes cheaper cars and is backed by Berkshire-Hathaway, surpassed Tesla as the top-selling EV company last quarter."

Tesla Q4 Earnings Reaction: 'Train Wreck' Call, Production Warning Hit Stock (businessinsider.com)

Elon Musk is an insignificant part of what is going on with the Tesla stock situation right now. If he would completely disappear it would have no effect on the dynamics that are pressuring Tesla success right now.

Tesla is in a space where competition, demand, raw materials, technologies are rapidly changing - throw in unpredictable government regulation/meddling responses from all over the world and you have a witches' brew of uncertainty.

Hopefully this important American Company will find its footing and have a place in the car industry when this all begins to shake out. Automotive Manufacturing is going through some unpredictable/uncharted territory right now. No one is sure who is going to be left standing.

 

About December 2021 I expressed concern after reading an article on Fortune whose main foundation was the future profit margin and future volume of sales that Tesla would need to achieve to justify the price it was then selling for (~$407).

It is now $183.

There remain:

• Geopolitical risks (China).
• Supply chain risks (China, shipping)
• Management erratic behavior
• Increased competition in the same space (Can you say Chine again)
• Protectionism
• National champion buying
• Risk of new technology obsoleting current advantages (600 mile batteries, solid state, etc announced every day)
• Expansion expenses (Model 2, India, Mexico)
• Management burnout
• Workforce aging and taking their stock options and leaving
• Too many balls in the air (Chargers, solar, rockets, satellites, communications)
• FSD lawsuits demanding refunds of amounts paid plus penalty
  
• Accumulated effect of anti-EV/Tesla press
  
• Not the new shiny thing any more

You invest for future profits. All of these threaten future Tesla profit levels even at its current level.

 

I’m buying all your dips and selling all your peaks

 

Your crystal forecasting ball is much more clear than mine, which is made of obsidian. Very opaque.

 

This affects the whole market

Yes an issue, but not as bad as management being run by the UAW and dealers
(Are we all in on EVs or are we cutting back to keep ICE jobs and make dealers happy doing oil changes?)

Affects lots of industries...semi-conductor chips for example

The least important item in your list
All such changes to battery tech will take much longer than the press releases say. Before they affect any real sales you have to have a large number of DC fast chargers installed. And who is making and installing most of these, at least in the US. Who has to know about how to charge these before they can install chargers?

You have to spend money to make money. You have to have money to invest in new plants.

You got me on this. I wasn't counting on the turnover by the Tesla competition giving up as fast as they are.

What car company ranks higher than Tesla on lists like these?
Power Employers: The Most Sought-After Companies by US Students | Observer

Better than having no balls ... I mean no balls in the air (Oops, did I say that?)

Yeah, could happen

Look how long it took for people to figure out what a hybrid is. There are still more people than don't know about EVs and most anything written about them just educate more people

Cybertruck, Semi, and Model 2 (or whatever they call it) have some shininess, IMO.

Mike

 

3PriusMike

Never said they all happen. Just any could.

The Fortune article is still an interesting read if you plug in the numbers from the last quarter instead of the ones they were using two years ago. https://fortune.com/2021/11/30/tesla-shares-hertz-musk-tsla-stock-price-trillion-dollar-company/ as is the article that immediately followed it titled following the flock about meme stocks and manias

Answer for yourself what number of cars sold at what margin will justify what price.

Look at Tesla Dividend Discount Model - Stable Growth | Tesla Inc (TSLA) for some models and their predictions. They are from value investors models.

Ask yourself if Tesla is still a meme stock or has it matured to the point where it should be valued like any other company.

When is the last time you read or heard good things about EVs in the non-enthusiast press?

If other companies' stocks are affected while Tesla is, the others are at lest priced today at very different multiples than Tesla. A bright future is already priced in to Tesla. Tesla stock has more room to fall. (up today)

It will be interesting to come back to this in another year when we can see what has happened.

 

Tesla is still maturing. They are still in the rapid growth phase.
You can't value a growth company using a value model, it just does not work. It's like measuring weight with a ruler.

In addition to, looking solely at the number of cars Tesla sells will never add up to the value of the company, as the company has an energy division which is looking to become a larger part of the profits than the automotive part.