Tesla stock

iirc ..... sadam husein made the magazine's list too.
it's almost as tho they're just trying to get clicks.
.

 

Actually, he didn't.

But Hitler, Stalin (x2), Khomeini, Putin, Xiaoping, Andropov, Faisal, Krushchev, Westmoreland, etc., did.

Selection is based on influence and importance, but not on honor.

 

Their inventory went from about 8 days of sales to 13. Most of the industry, in normal times, has about 50-70 days of inventory, IIRC.
This is a "grave" risk? It is difficult to get much better than 8 days, because you have to get the cars from the plant to the customer. As they expand to more countries and wider within a country it will just take longer in transit via ships and trucks.

Mike

 

Inventory? There is almost none. The cars get bought almost immediately. Increasing competition is good, and Tesla will be losing their enormous share of the market over time, and this is predictable. As long as their total sales numbers don't go south, they'll be OK. The Tesla image socially is what worries me the most (meaning: Musk). I get "You bought one of those? What were you thinking?" comments from some people at work. More than likely they wouldn't have asked me in that way a year ago.

 

I know!

it's nice to see a lot of the froth finally blowing off of this one but it's still early...

 

I disagree. Tesla's valuation relative to it's auto company peers was egregiously high. And it still is. Many Tesla fans argue the company is more of a 'tech' company than an auto company, and tech companies generally have a much higher valuations. However, the the tech valuation bubble is bursting as well...so I'm not sure that argument holds as much water as it once did. The "Elon is a god" cult of personality is/was a big factor as well...and we all know how that has been going. It seems to be a perfect storm for Tesla right now.

 

From an observer's perspective Tesla is an immature auto manufacturer (started in 2003) compared to establish auto makers.

They were playing in a niche market space where they didn't really have any competition.

That has changed dramatically as the market where they played in has grown tremendously and now looks to possibly be the future of transportation.

They will have more competitors than they ever dreamed of - many of them will be established manufacturing, marketing powerhouses.

As we can now see EV models to choose from are going to explode with many, many choices and price points just like ICE cars.

Someone who thinks they can see into a future that isn't even defined yet and have insights into where we will end up must have an interesting opinion of their personal intelligence and powers of perception.

I don't own individual Tesla stock or any other individual stocks

Blindfolded Monkey Beats Humans With Stock Picks - WSJ

Are Chimps As Good At Economic Forecasting As Experts? - iExpats

CHIMP BEATS SWEDISH STOCK EXPERTS (buffalonews.com)

Remembering Raven Thorogood III: The chimp that smoked Wall Street (thenextweb.com)

Turns out a camel once beat Wall Street, too

What I do own are index funds that include many automotive manufactures as-some will fail - some will succeed- but as an individual I have no idea which will do what and have no inclination to risk money on who will succeed or fail.

Perhaps I am just not as smart as others or our primate and dromedary friends who continually beat the experts at picking stocks.

 

actually, i think we're agreeing. tech bubble is bursting, and that's how major investors view tesla. just read some of their propositions fo understand why they think it is worth investing and expect the stock to continue rising over time. (not saying they are right or wrong)
comparing them to old line automakers doesn't work because wall street has little interest in those companies

 

Deja vu all over again ...

 

When you look at Tesla's gross margins it doesn't look like that. Immature applies to the behaviour of the CEO, I must admit.

To be fair they created the niche market and expanded it. Most of the others still haven't caught on that the charging network matters for long trips.

Doubtful that Elon didn't dream of every car maker selling EVs one day.

Let's look at those statements. VW, for example is a manufacturing power house, no?
It takes them 3x as many hours to assemble a car than Tesla, based on statements by the former CEO who got ousted.

Marketing powerhouses? Who spends as little as Tesla in marketing dollars per car sold?

Mike

 

Are Chimps As Good At Economic Forecasting As Experts? - iExpats

"The evidence is American academic Phillip Tetlock’s book Expert Political Judgment. Tetlock scrutinises 80,000 economic predictions from 284 forecasters over two decades.

Tetlock’s opinion – expert predictions were not significantly better than those a ‘mindless, dart throwing chimp’ could make."

I will gladly leave individual stock picking to you and the chimps.

I have already said: Perhaps I am just not as smart as others or our primate and dromedary friends who continually beat the experts at picking stocks.

Many of my replies are tongue in cheek on this subject and I am interested in people's feelings on this topic - I enjoy discussing stocks quite a bit. A wonderful book on this subject is " A Random Walk Down Wall Street" written by a consensus expert on Wall Street and Stocks - Burton G Malkiel who founded Vanguard. He discusses the foolishness of picking stocks and trying to out think the market. I think this thread was started by a nice gentleman who is now looking for a part time job. Stocks are a fascinating subject with many interesting opinions and feelings, I enjoy your replies and the other replies here on the market, stocks and Wall Street.

 

If the later is true, I would recommend less of the former.
Sarcasm often comes across poorly in online discussions.

 

we own 50 individual company stocks, but they are all dividend stocks. i don't worry about value unless a company/industry looks like it is in serious trouble.
i look them over quarterly and rarely make changes.
the dividends have averaged 5% over the last 4 years, much better than our cd's

 

There is a well-respected Retirement Investing Firm in our area that does exactly that way of investing for retirees. They say the advantages are you are spread across a whole basket of Blue Chip Stocks that have predictable dividends that don't depend on the economy or market ups and downs. It is an attractive way of investing and seems well grounded.

It would make a great thread to have individuals share their investment philosophies - what has worked for them and what hasn't worked, as well as their current philosophies.

Being retired I now have a conservative/preservation approach mixed with some growth and income exposure to make sure we don't outlive our assets. What we have now must last us the rest of our lives and I would like to leave something for the kids when we pass away.

Had a much different investing approach when I was younger and working during the accumulation phase of our lives but always was on the conservative approach side of the investing road.

 

this is an interesting article. i like the 'doesn't do as well as some during boom times, but does much better during bust' approach to long term wealth accumulation:

retirement-portfolio-investing-savings-51673038954

 

Great article and strategy. It takes advantage of two pillars of smart investing- diversification across broad asset classes and timely rebalancing.

Appreciate you posting it, an interesting and educational read. Enjoyed reading it and learned something from it.

Thank you.

 

I don't use an advisor. Just read an enormous amount.

At 62, I retired.

I elected to take Social Security immediately. I was making more than inflation in the market.

In early retirement I consolidated all my various 401k assets into an IRA and kept them 100% in stocks in a broad based index fund.
Easy decision when the entire market was rising.

Never figured I was smart enough to beat the professionals in single stock picking.

And then about two years ago at 77 or so I decided that enough was enough. Just didn't think the market would keep going up forever. I had lived through several market cycles. I was willing to not try for the market top in return for a little more safety. I transferred half of my stock fund into a short term bond fund thinking it would keep me somewhat safer if the market tanked. While leaving some money in the market. Watched the market go up a bit after that but that decision meant I have lost ~1% over this bear market on the bonds rather than ~20% on the stock fund. And most longer term bond funds values have suffered from inflation. All I was doing was trying to buy a little more safety, not income.

I take RMD proceeds out in two equal chunks to smooth the impact of selling when the market is going up or down. Generally moving the proceeds into the same type funds (but not tax advantaged) they came from.

Now I'm somewhat aggressive for our ages. We life on a small fixed pension from the first 25 years of working for me plus her small retirement. Plus two Social Security checks. Have long term care insurance and great health plans. No debt. No life insurance to speak of.

Current overall asset position:
13% real estate (house we live in)
38% bond fund and I-bonds bought ~ 15-25 years ago.
45% stocks
3% cash equivalents in multiple banks in a mix of money market and CDs

Starting to nibble into stocks again but only in a broad based index fund. And only meaning I took half my last year RMD proceeds and put it in my stock index fund in December as opposed to all into my bond fund like I have for several years. Still increased the bonds more than the stocks last year.

So my strategy is to evolve the strategy as our ages change and as conditions change staying somewhat in what I consider at the time the middle. I do a net-worth statement quarterly but change strategy very infrequently.

Smartest financial move I ever made was marry a wife who thought about life style like I did and stay married.

 

We will have to take RMD's in two more years. Taking them out in smaller amounts at different times during the year sounds like a great way to do that. We will have to remember to do that, thank you for sharing that tip with us.

Still thinking about how to handle and what to do with the excess part of the RMD we won't immediately need - it sounds like you have figured that out for you guys.

 

The other RMD tip is well known, do your significant charity giving from your RMD to reduce your tax liability. Fed and my state allows that donation to be deducted from taxable income. So right off the top line.