Tesla stock

95 billion today........

Sometimes it's interesting to look back on some of these older threads

 

totals are interesting in general, but splits are more important for individuals.

 

I'm just thinking in general terms, being an in-betweener on TSLA.
Sold all my TSLA 1/8/21 at $882, because there was no way I could justify not selling it after such a quick, large upward momentum move with no real reason. I remember it jumping like $200 that week. Even after I sold, TSLA moved around a bit and peaked over $1k, then did a 3 for 1. Now down to almost a hundo. That means the shares I sold at 882 would now be around 300-320ish. Clearly, one of the better moves I've made in the last couple years (other than buying a grocery bag full of OXY+ in the fall of 2020 @ $2.60ish. Sometimes those darn oil companies work out ok....)

It may be getting close to the time to nibble on TSLA again. I guess I just need to figure out whether Musk is done pissing off all the fan-bois, or are they now done with him and he's entered the "cancel him" zone? In the latter case, it's likely not done with its descent.

 

i'm so tempted, but i said the same thing at much higher prices, and i'm glad i didn't.
still there has to be a floor, and no need to be greedy

 

Musk is doing a bang-up job of pissing off several generations of the population of the Earth. There aren't a lot of fan boys left at this point. The only people he hasn't pissed off is Tesla's BOD.

 

I'm neutral, but I still question why TESLA is valued as much as it is, other than just fanfare. It's basically the same market cap as F and GM combined. It may still have 50% or more to drop, (but I don't typically play the short game), as more and more players enter the EV game. I'm curious if it's one or all of the statements that the podcaster and you disagree with and why. Trying to get a better feel for whether it's time (yet) to nibble...

1. Musk is doing a bang-up job of pissing off several generations of the population of the Earth.
2. There aren't a lot of fan boys left at this point.
3. The only people he hasn't pissed off is Tesla's BOD.

 

Point one is hyperbole. Yes he is pissing of many people, there are also many people who don’t care what a CEO says.
Point two is irrelevant to the stock price.
Point three is a restatement of point one.

Tesla’s debt ratio is the best in the auto manufacturing world and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

 

I agree. This will piss people off around here...but it seems the "Elon is a God" investment thesis is starting to lose it's luster. And good lord, some people *still* really do treat the guy like a god. It's almost cult like? Or maybe it's just me. Thankfully, many folks seem to be coming to their senses a bit lately, which is a good trend.

With that said, I still think Tesla is still overvalued vs. it's peers. However, at the current stock price just somewhat overvalued now vs. vastly overvalued. We will see how many shares Cathie Wood quadruples down on.

 

How many companies aren’t overvalued these days?

 

Thanks for the detailed, thoughtful answers, but not quite all correct. For someone looking to put money into a company, nothing is irrelevant. Social momentum can break a company just as easily as make a company. There are plenty of algo programs out there that analyze social momentum for trading stocks.

This article, which I just saw on Yahoo, is a prime example of the above and also a great example of what's wrong with the world........

I bought a Tesla to save the environment, but now I’m embarrassed to drive it | Guest Opinion (yahoo.com)

and the very first comment I saw after the article was this one posted by a guy named Jim, making a comment about the author.

By his own words he drove a Tesla to be seen driving it. And now he could stop for fear of being seen driving it. Is it really about the environment or the perception that you care?

I think I'm willing to say there are a LOT more just like him. Musk/Tesla is likely heading for a direct impact with the cancel culture.

 

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Meanwhile, Elmo is tweeting how he thinks he should be person of the year, etc... The guy needs a muzzle. Regardless, of what you think of the guy, any Tesla shareholder should not be happy about the Twitter situation, etc...and how his cult of personality is affecting things.

 

fits well, right after trump

 

Yeah..so? It ain't 2021...Elmo is a much different person now. Yet he stills seems to think he should be person of the year. Narcissists just can't get a grip.

 

Go back on this thread to about December of last year where I referred to a set of two articles in Forbes citing an analysis of Tesla stock just in financial terms and ignoring the product the company produces. They detailed what would have to happen to justify the then current price. Both articles came to the conclusion that Tesla was then grossly overvalued.

I commented on some of the things I thought could affect the stock negatively. I wasn't smart enough to include the Twitter fiasco. Just geopolitical risks, competitive risks, economic risks. Those risks were dismissed by some here.

Then google/search "tesla stock" today and see the -69% adjusted for stock splits 1 year return.

I see value today in Tesla's manufacturing and innovation abilities. I see lack of value in its social image, its aging products, its pricing niche, its pricing power. I'm skeptical about the profitability of its future products. I see grave risk in its inventory, in its competitive position given any US subsidies. I'm flabbergasted that it is thinking of building more factories when it has an inventory glut in the US and China and a declining US order backlog. I'm very worried about its geopolitical exposure.

I wouldn't buy today at $110. $30 maybe.

Lets see in another year if I was right.

Disclaimer. I was wrong on Toyo Kogyo. Thought the Wankel would be successful. But bought two '90s Mazda 4-cyls and they were really good cars.

 

the market is down, everything is overvalued, it's not specific to tesla