Tesla stock

The stock market is generally thought to be forward looking...maybe 6-12 months ahead.

The projections given at the earnings call were for ~50% growth in production in Fremont & China for 2022.
Germany and Texas aren't shipping, but it is difficult to argue they won't start production and their ramps in the next 6 months.

Mike

 

As others have said, there is often a component of ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’.
Also, Elon is a terrible narrator for the quarterly reports. He tends to wander a bit, or a lot, in his answers. I do hope he will allow others to handle these calls as he had the last report or two.

All in all, Tesla had great results, however the outlook wasn’t great.
The supply chain is still restricted (chips). As such, Tesla figures more than 50% growth can be done at just Fremont and China, so they aren’t in as much of a rush to get Germany & Texas running full speed.

Also, although already known by many, Tesla is pushing the Cybertruck to 2023 and not working on the 25k car this year. There had been rumors that the 25k version was being designed in China, and would be released this year

 

The design rumors likely came form the fact that the Model <3 will have a greater than 90% chance of using LFP. The major producers are in China. In addition to CATL as their current suppllier, Tesla is experimenting with BYD's Blade battery. May even start using them in a model.

 

My last post was in November just as Tesla reached its high. I pointed to a series of Forbes articles questioning it's long term value based on things like EV market size, profit per vehicle needed to justify the then stock price, etc.

Since then it is off roughly 30% (though in fairness up around 35% over this time last year). Elon in trouble with his mouth, investments, the authorities, the Germans, etc. Singapore operating with one shift. Haven't heard the Texas production numbers. Recalls galore. Still no self driving, waiting for the lawyers to climb all over Elon and Tesla for over-promising. Competitors now selling competing cars. Even being a meme stock and having a year long waiting list, reality has set in along with a total market meltdown.

Thank goodness I bought some serious amount of I-bonds 20 years ago when they were yielding 4% plus inflation. They plus short term bond funds have cushioned my stock losses.

I see more and more Teslas shuttling back and forth presumably from Pinehurst to Raleigh, Cary and RDU (all rich enclaves of the well to do.). Where I used to see 1 a trip I now see many many times more. So obviously they are selling. Saw my first Kia EV today. Tiny.

Gas at $4.139 today. Fueled for $18.62. Around $8 a week. Based on the difference I would have to pay for a Tesla, I can pump a lot of gas for an awfully long time. My lifetime 38.9 MPG is the lower of the cars in our stable right now.

(I still want one. I do like new toys.)

I've always also failed to ever buy an Apple product. Refused to pay what I describe as the Apple Tax. And I don't buy a top end Android either. Why pay an extra 200%? Good enough is good enough.

 

Elon can solve his Putin problem with a 10-digit bounty...
@ $60....you're obviously diversified and your big-T stocks are worth a lot more than you paid for them.....and it's just playing around money - so put it where you WANT....or keep it in big T.
After all...with inflation eating away at cash and the markets gyrating around it's not like you have a lot of options.

Maybe grab a battle buddy and go on a round the world cruise....or take a cold-eyed look at the bucket list.

As I've oft said, especially lately, two things can be true at once....
In Tesla (just as with Space-X and probably Starlink) Musk has transformed whole industries.
HOWEVER (comma!) So did Betamax.

That was exactly my policy until my failings as a husband and father caught up with me, and the girls in my life all went over to the dark side.
I can report that Apples are no longer 200% more than a comparable droid, and (curiously enough) the mothership has long offered a 10% discount to vets and their CPO refurbished site offers last years and year before last products (when you can find them) that are indistinguishable from brand new, offer a same-as-new warranty, and are price competitive with smart(er) devices.

Of course.....you'll have to learn how to poke a few holes in the wall around the garden if you're a DIY-er, or anything beyond the most basic glass poker, and my last 2 droids had enough bloatware onboard to make the IOS stuff seem like sweet freedom....and one cannot say that the Apples do not at least make some of the right noises about respecting privacy as a human right.

I can report that my particular Apple Watch has paid for all of the other products I've bought just by way of making me more available to my company's call out center - and when you get to be a gentleman of a certain age an Apple Watch will serve as a face-saving fall detector as more than one of my contemporaries have found out while on a callout at 0h-dark-thirty.
PLUS my duties as tier-1 tech support for my CFO have diminished to the point where I make Maytag repair people look outrageously industrious.

It's not all unicorn farts and sunshine.
I still passionately disagree with many of IOS' core corp principles but since I'm a libertarian that means I can still buy their stuff when it suits me....slave labor wages, CCP butt licking, offshoring, and general woketivism notwithstanding......

MY mileage,
Yours may vary.

 

annuities?

 

In the short term the stock is going to be affected by the macro environment (war, interest rates, covid, shutdowns)
In the long term it will be based on profits, which Tesla now has. Over $3B in the last qtr.

Also, there is no plant in Singapore, it is in Shanghai CHINA.

Name at least two (competitors is plural) that have anywhere near Tesla's EV production capacity and compare their car specs (battery size, range, MPGe, fast charger network, etc.) And what will the capacity be in 1-2 years?

Mike

 

You read too many opinion pieces from the shorts

 

it's not a tesla thing, the whole market is down. crypto, that's another story...

 

a year ago, it was $563., not too shabby

 

The thrust of the article I was suggesting was to question if, long term, there was the probability of enough profits to justify that high a price. It was not advocating that it is worthless or a $100 stock, just questioning if at $1,200 and change enough profits were going to be there long term when others have entered the market.

I knew Bob bought it early and had a big big profit on paper.

Noted today they started taking orders (and big deposits) for the semi.

 

Many stock analyst have your same concerns. Your observations and questions are certainly reasonably.

I don't think any individual knows where the stock market will go or what individual stocks will do for sure - they make educated guesses.

Are Chimps As Good At Economic Forecasting As Experts? - iExpats

"The evidence is American academic Phillip Tetlock’s book Expert Political Judgment. Tetlock scrutinises 80,000 economic predictions from 284 forecasters over two decades.

Tetlock’s opinion – expert predictions were not significantly better than those a ‘mindless, dart throwing chimp’ could make."

 

everything on wall street is overvalued. where else can they put their money? it's just a ponzi scheme, or a game of chicken

 

Crypto is down too, with a few specialty coins collapsed this week. TerraUSD, which is intended to be a stable coin pegged at $1.00, severely 'broke the buck' in the past week and is $0.15 today, but at least that is double what it fell to yesterday. Luna, which was $119 sometime in February, and $76 a week ago, started yesterday at $00.20, and ended the day around $00.00005. But hey, right now it is up 400% from that, at $00.00025!

Also, NFT volumes are down from a few months ago. It probably doesn't help that on one of the exchanges, 95% of the active traders were sellers making 'wash sales' among themselves to earn frequent-trader loyalty points.

I'm wondering how many lambs will be going to slaughter. Considering the environmental impacts of bitcoin and other crypto, I wouldn't mind seeing the industry die out.

 

and for us ol' fashion buyer that have hung on for a couple or more years?
Rather than jumping in & out every dip? Still sittin' pretty.
.

 

Right. I bought in before the split and still holding. I have bought more on dips, but have no plans to sell until later. I truly believe TSLA is just getting started. There will be much more growth once the recession (which is probably already here) is over and those "competitors" realize they are loosing money while Tesla has been profitable for a while and again, is just getting started. The time horizon is 5-10 years, not every volatility up/down on the graph.

 

Crypto - like Tesla price - if you've been holding 2 or more years - congratulations.
But - less than 2yrs?
Bam - about ½ the value grenaded - from ~$60k to <$30k


.

 

i have no understanding of it at all, but i agree with fuzzy, the environmental damage should be stopped in its tracks