Tesla stock

No "we" won't, IMO. Cars generally last for 15-20 years and the average age of a car on the road is about 11 years. We would need to be selling 100% EVs (and/or PHEVs at least) within a year or two to just reach 50% electrons by 2030.
The earliest anyone reasonable is even thinking about 100% EV sales is 2030 or 2035.
This means 2040 - 2050 for no more ICE cars on the road

Mike

 

This relies on government mandates, or in a few cases, company mandates.
While I believe your estimate is reasonable, I believe the transition to EVs will be quick simply because they are a better option for some.
And the number of drivers in that group is getting larger every year.

 

You are not taking into consideration the disruption aspect of BEV. When it's simply a lot cheaper to run a BEV rather than a gasser, people will forgo the 11 year average age of their old tech car and switch to a more economical option. I think you will be surprised as to the abruptness with which the switch to BEV will happen.

 

While I hope for quicker change over, the massive price difference between cars and phones. EVs will be a disruption, but changing over the fleet will take time. Even when the cheaper to run, it costs less for many to hold onto the ICE than buy new. Without intervention by government or other outside force, ICE will stick around as those that do go EV will pass their old car on to another.

Cars themselves didn't become a disruption until the Model T came along, and that was around twenty years after the first car went on sale. We don't have a Model T equivalent for the EV yet. In markets with high gas/diesel prices, a BEV might have total cost parity with a mid-level, mass market ICE car, but gas is still cheap in the US.

 

US does not comprise a huge part of the emerging world automotive market. China and India by themselves is half the world's population and they desperately want cars.

Also, the only reason gas is cheap in US is government subsidies. One day they will go away. That day may be sooner than later, who knows...

 

It's reasonable that at some point the governments will step in and push for removing petrol powered vehicles from the road. There are now millions of enthusiasts that will push for it; it validates their purchase. Virtually every car manufacturer will push for it too; it opens vast new markets. The oil companies will fight it, but someone will notice that there are only so many rivers to dam and windmills to plant and that 250 million cars will need to be charged. That leaves a vast market for fossil fuel driven power plants. Then even Big Oil will get behind phasing out the gas engine.

I hope they wait a while. I would rather not be forced into having to buy a car for more than $50,000 car in order to make a 500 mile trip in a reasonable time.

Dan

 

perhaps - by accident - left off PV solar & battery backup? Reading up on how much PV can add to the grid is pretty compelling.
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PV solar can contribute a lot, but for each 1 mega-watt-hour of BEV to charge, wouldn't you need to have that much in battery buffer (storage)? Without storage, the first "dark and gloomy day" will leave a lot of people with less than the expected charge. Here in Calif we can't handle the load of air conditioners in the Summer and Fall so there are strong financial incentives to charge cars only from midnight to early afternoon.

Dan

 

Yes I am. A paid for 7-15 year old car is far cheaper to just continue to put gas in the tank than to buy a BEV and have your fuel costs drop in half. Generally, people who own these old cars either were the original owners and take care of their cars or they are lower income people who never buy new. The latter group will only buy a used BEV when they are plentiful. This is at least a 5 year lagging number -- i.e. some percentage of ~5+ year old cars go into the used market.

I'll be surprised 5 years or so later.

Mike

 

Batteries aren't the only storage medium available or under development. There's pumped water, compressed air, weights on ropes, and hydrogen, with potentially other efuels, just off the top of my head. There are also battery chemistries that aren't suitable for cars.

On the production front, there is hydro without dams, and advances in nuclear; fission and fusion. Orbital solar may be a thing in the farther future; no clouds up there.

Most of the major oil companies have seen the writing on the wall, and have been branching out of fossil fuels for some time. Porsche is licensing an e-gasoline technology from Exxon for their plant in Chile. Many have biofuel programs.

Coal for power is dying in the US. China is trying to export it for their industry, but some developing markets are pushing back against it. Natural gas will likely expand in the short term, but is better than coal and oil, and those turbines can be adapted for renewable fuels. Oil, and maybe coal, will still have value for things besides fuel. The unusable bits there might still get burned for more than running their own production.

 

Or is it now that most people don't buy cars but rent them on some subsidized finance plan. And then do it again.

I was amazed how much demand there is for 8-10 year old well cared for cars like mine usually have been.

 

Except that is not true. About 25-30% of "new" cars are leased.
And more people buy used rather than new.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/453122/share-of-new-vehicles-on-lease-usa

Mike

 

Much of this will hinge on regulation through taxation. Applying externality costs such as via a new gas tax or markedly increased gas taxes would expedite the retiring of new and used ICE vehicles.

But as it has long stood, so long as most drive an ICE vehicle - they vote, it’s political suicide on either side of the political aisle to impose such taxes. That political barrier might fade in the future once a substantial part of the driving base is BEV.

 

Any other shareholder out there that is feeling pretty upset about Tesla's Bitcoin ownership? Bitcoin has a bigger carbon footprint than New Zealand or Argentina and will only grow if the price continues to rise.

 

I agree that bitcoin "mining" is probably a stupid thing for the environment.
The proponents are countering that mining moves to the cheapest energy source and is helping more wind and solar being built.
IMO, this is like everyone with a BEV driving a hundred extra miles everyday just to increase the number of EV miles driven as a percentage of all miles driven.

Mike

 

It's a hedge against the constant dollar devaluation - feds increase the zeros on Bank ledgers simply decreases your purchasing power for every fake dollar you have sitting in a bank. Can't fake crypto currency.
.

 

Thank goodness for simple diversified sets of index funds across broad market categories where you don't have to pay attention to this type of investing nonsense. It must be absolutely exhausting.

 

Bitcoin is a driver of deflation, which is economically very destructive. It encourages people to 'invest' in the currency itself, rather than in productive economic activity.

 

Take enough economic classes and you'll learn that any and all money is "fake," crypto or otherwise.

 

OK, how many people buy cars new? Take away the more people buy used and those who finance and how many are left?

I can tell you from personal experience how few salescritters know how to deal with an all cash offer. No F&I. No add-ons. No trade. Just here is a check. And I'll never be back to your dealership.