Tesla stock

Sold a little TSLA to round-out my holdings:

• 10/25/10 - $327.79 sell (buy "Full Self Driving")
• 10/14/19 - $252.00 sell (taxes and tags)
• 06/18/19 - $228.72 buy
• 03/29/19 - $275.00 buy
• 03/14/19 - $290.00 buy
• 03/05/19 - $282.49 buy
• 03/05/19 - $281.10 buy
• 03/01/19 - $294.95 buy
• 02/01/19 - $310.00 buy
• 01/18/19 - $320.00 buy
• 11/08/18 - $355.00 sell
• 09/08/18 - $260.26 buy
• 08/29/18 - $305.00 buy

So I just got confirmation of having bought "Full Self Driving" which is covered by the stock sale. I still hold TSLA which of course in Q4 will have my purchase in the profit/loss.



We know 'full self driving' will have a price increase so I wanted to lock mine down. This includes upgrading the video and sensor processing board with the high speed version Tesla designed. It is also 'Thanks' for the expected 5% increase in power which may also increase the range a touch.

My expectation is there will be a 'SHORT squeeze' over the next few days or so. Trying to minimize their losses, the SHORTs will bid-up the stock price. But this is a transient effect. Looking at the Q3 financials will take a little time to absorb and that will raise the price more efficiently. My expectation is ~$350/share before the end of Q4. However, $420 is possible thanks to Gigafactory 3.

Bob Wilson

ps. I've noticed some Tesla competitors have recently made announcements about their self-driving and driver assists products. Having read Robot, Take The Wheel, Jason Torchinsky, I'm more convinced Tesla has the right approach and a fair price.

 

Let me know if you’ll have to get Hw3 and if so, how it goes.

Bob Wilson

 

My experiment begins as I bought "Full Self Driving" Friday afternoon (10/25//19) AFTER selling part of our TSLA holdings:

• SR+ Model 3, odometer 15,117 mi, +90% on Autopilot with 'thang'
• Very low traction battery capacity loss, 238/240 ~= 0.83%
• Quarterly report that a "5%" improvement is coming
• Cost avoidance of $6,000 versus future price increase

Positive operational experience:

• Basic AutoPilot has already saved us from adverse medical incidents
• Auto-steer no longer 'hugs' the inside lanes but sits in the middle
• Below 50 mph, default Traffic Aware Cruise Control (TACC) limits to +5 mph
• TACC following traffic comes to a complete stop and resumes when lead moves out
• 360 degree monitored, turn signal initiated lane changes are safe and predictable
• NoA (Beta) works but lane suggestions are still a little strange
• Summon works for short, 10-30 feet segments
• Auto, parallel parking works sometimes

Needs work, operational experience:

• Intersections with angled cross street and curved, dashed lane line from left
• Left turning intersection can lead to an attempt to drive toward the right-hand corner
• TACC only uses Google Map, speed initially without a manual "I want this" speed set option
• Does not read speed signs, stop signs, or traffic lights
• Driving into sun with shadows can trigger phantom braking
• Does not understand new laws to 'use left lane just for passing'
• Does not change lanes to maximize distance from stopped police, fire, and shoulder vehicles on either side
• Does not change lanes to makes space when traffic merging from on-ramps
• Does not also sound horn prior to or part of impact (untested)

So I'll contact Tesla support and ask if buying $6,000 "Full Self Driving" will improve existing functions. In particular, I want full range, parking lot summon and other function of other "Early Adopters". Also, how does the car show I've ordered "Full Self Driving"?

Bob Wilson

ps. Thang's cousin:

 

uplicate D (eat that Autocorrect!)

 

Pre-Q4 report, the stock seemed to wander between $545-565. It is the calmest its been since the recent price tear.

Bob Wilson

 

I had a sell order at $650 but got back in time to cut the quantity in half. I want to see the activity over the next few days to see if a "VW SHORT squeeze" Tsunami is happening. If so, the other half will be higher. If not, take the profits.

Bob Wilson