Tesla stock

Posit this scenario.

The news starts to anticipate a sharp downturn coming. The "R" word gets mentioned. People get scared and reduce spending on premium goods. Those who have investments are shaken by their net-worth shrinkage. Job growth turns just slightly negative but enough to prompt headlines.

Add in trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, the 3M's in trouble (UK, France, Germany).

Now predict what the market for $60k cars will be. (BTW, that $38k to make the base M3 was from Elon to employees.)

This doubt came to me as, on a cold rainy day stuck inside with a head cold, I sat reading and watching the market tick down minute by minute. Until a few months ago, I was way overbalanced in stocks and had been since 2008. Fortunately, this year I pulled 50% of my portfolio out to a place where I won't make much. My advisor asked me why. I said I had had enough of a ride and had seen this cycle before.

I wonder what the Tesla prices will be when the tax rebate is reduced. Will they have to drop to keep up the volume? Will them starting to ship 3k overseas lead to delivery/service hell like it has here? What happens if one of those new battery technologies turns out to be real and owned by a competitor? Does the gigafactory turn into an albatross?

You buy stock for a share of future profits. Lots of uncertainties.

 

doomsday scenario? i've been in cd's since 1985. looked good in 89, 99 and 08

 

Economists have predicted 7 of the last 3 recessions, IIRC.

Mike

 

in that scenario, i'd be more concerned about gm, ford and chrysler

 

pretty different philosophies for those 3. They'd rather shut plants down to make money - whereas their new competitor goes into hock up to their eyeballs & shovels all their profits back into their grand plan to make money - rather than reward their board with obscene corporate perks.
.

 

Shorting is always a gamble. So is going long, as I can tell you from experience in two market crashes. What happened to my investments in infospace.com, pets.com, webvan.com and Enron?

The dynamics of Tesla make it an ideal short candidate. The basis for the moves Elon Musk makes are his own secrets. He may have a strategy that surprises us all.

 

I, too, pulled over 50% of my portfolio from tech stocks and invested in fast food. Man, that Big Mac Meal Large Sized with Diet Coke was fantastic! I ordered it with extra pickles, just to sweeten the deal. And I received a week's worth of napkins for free.

 

the bitter party is way more than one. Consider the 1,000's who were affected by the ignition switch snafu that GM hid from the public (injuries/fatalities & hiding what they knew) . They have even tried to shirk their Duty by claiming that most of those cars were made pre-bankruptcy & thus, those liabilities were shead.
The unravelling of the General Motors restructuring: Claims beyond the limits of bankruptcy | Cayman Financial Review
So, besides all of the other slimy stuff that GM has done, besides killing off one of their most efficient cars recently ? Yea - a lot of their goings-on never make it to the Press. I hope those that were laid off can get picked up by a manufacturer that will appreciate their skills.
.

 

my 96 year old father used to fill his pockets with napkins every time i took him to mcdonalds.

depression baby

 

I do that, although not at McDonald's. And packs of catchup, honey, salt, pepper, etc.

 

Sounds like a wise time to listen to your emotions.

 

Read an interesting article on the troubles that the company that Tesla leases through was having. Wonder on its effect on the number of cars available. Not available to be linked to.

 

you mean new vehicles sitting on lots that can't be sold because no leasing is available?

 

Starting to get a little skeptical of your motivation for coming on here to only say negative things about Tesla. Are you just not able to understand Tesla's situation? Or do you have a financial incentive to come up with these doomsday scenarios?