Featured Tesla needs to Catch up

smarter than me. but i just get ignored in there. they know i'm just an ignorant fool with no malice. sometimes you learn something. most times, people are stuck on their talking points and not budging.

 

There are definitely impassioned view points.

I don’t have enough time in the day to watch the news and keep up.

What better place to get the daily rundown than there.

 

as many 'facts' here as anywhere, maybe more.

 

We lost @orenji after he was corrected on his 5k a month comment.

 

Someone please explain the disconnect of Model 3 sales, Jan-June 2018 of 24,367 (US) and their so-called production numbers of thousands per week. 24,367 / 26 weeks = 937 cars per week. Am I to understand that non-US sales are tens of thousands, or that there are some ten thousand+ cars sitting somewhere unsold?

Tesla has been claiming some 2,000 or more model 3's per week since about January, and now up to nearly 5,000.

 

11,000 Model 3s were in transit at the end of June. Factory lines have been down for weeks over the year (a few days at a time) to make adjustments and other issues. Tesla started January ata steady rate much less than what you indicate.
Non-US sales of Model 3s are likely in the low thousands, but we don’t know yet. I’m guessing 2000.

 

I'm still a little worried about their burn rate.
What's the thinking on this side of the fence about capital?

 

Indeed, and anybody know what they’re burning cash on? I’d think that the operating costs of the line would be comparatively small, now that it’s all capitalized.

 

What's your latest source about burn rate? Is it the Q1? If so, that is a little out of date to go off of. Is it conjecture from analysts? Just curious what your source is.

 

They have a couple Billion in cash as I recall and are bringing in lots of cash in sales. Their S and X models have between a 20% and 25% profit margin.
The 3 is still loosing money as they continue to increase production. Although it is loosing less money than it was in the first quarter. 3rd quarter is still targeted for cash neutral or positive.

They continue to expand service centers, stores and charging infrastructure at a very quick pace. I am guessing they are going to rein in some of that.

They are also restructuring the company (announced last spring) and reworking service calls to make them more efficient.

I rather liked this video, even though I didn't care for some details in it.

 

Thanks.
I'll give it a tumble and try to figure out the bits that you 'don't like.'

Is there (such a thing as) an major independent Tesla forum out there?
I was trying to figure out, just to scratch the itch that is my curiosity, whether Tesla is really having Q/A problems or they're being unfairly branded by dark and evil forces....and there was a lot of data on the Tesla | forum but Tesla seems to be somewhere between Walt Disney and Donald J Trump where media management is concerned, so I'm not sure that I trust them much more than the FUD rakers.......

 

Perhaps the Model 3 Owner’s Club. They’ve had a pretty-sensitive finger on Tesla’s pulse.

 

I'm not sure it matters. Elon and Tesla are finding solutions to daily problems. But given the 7 day, 5,000 Model 3 in one week, it isn't clear they need significantly more capital expenditures. Time to make product and harvest the operational profits. But I did like these insights.

Tesla has experience dealing with capital vs operational budgets:

They have been on the brink of bankruptcy several times in the past yet managed to keep on going. This isn't their first rodeo.

IMHO, the biggest challenge are tariff policies that risk eviscerating foreign sales and importing raw materials. These promise lower sales and higher cost of materials.

Bob Wilson

 

Getting a good source can be difficult. What do you mean by "independent"? The Tesla Motors Club forum has no connections to Tesla Motors and none to media. You will find trolls, fanatics, short sellers, TSLA bulls and everything in between.
The moderators do a decent job IMO, however everyone on all sides are yelling at them.
Tesla raises a lot of emotion, so I get it.

If you can ignore the chaff, there are some great posters there that really know their stuff.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/

Tesla has far fewer issues now than they did when the 3 first released. They still have more than I would like (none on my personal vehicle or my wife's, but I have a friend that has had issues).

I think the best source of information are the quarterly reports. We should be seeing one in about a month.

 

That's the only thing that's REALLY bothering me about Tesla....and by 'bothering' I mean that I want BEVs to get a full and fair shot at success in the world market, MOSTLY because I have a $200 Android in my pocket that is 9/10ths as good as the $800 stuff that the Apples sell.
Win-win!

I'm still a little concerned about debt loading and their burn rate.
MORE than a little actually, because all they will need to have happen to pop the balloon would be......say a software glitch (Unintended Acceleration, anyone?) or a continuation of the Q/A problems that new models are currently experiencing that will only grow WORSE....perhaps MUCH worse in the fullness of time.
The one BRILLIANT thing that they're doing is time capsuling their models....which is why 99.9999999999999 percent of the people out there who cannot afford a six-figure car cannot tell the difference between a 2012 S and a 2018 S......however (comma!!!!) that's only going to work for a little while longer.
A semi-brilliant thing that T is doing is that they already have (they say) an 'after kickback' plan.....and they're going about it in about the only way that they can, but the sand is running out of the hour glass on that one too, since the number of $35,000 3s that have been produced and delivered are approximately the same as the number of people on the left coast who pay less than $3 for a gallon of gas.

If you read Elon's bio, and FWIW I think that (Vance?) colored mostly inside the lines.......Musk took SpaceX right up to the very ragged edge of financial failure before that one successful launch that saved their bacon, and (some say) altered the very trajectory of human development. I personally think that Tesla faces more headwinds than SpaceX did, and their CEO is shooting dice with longer odds facing him, but as I always say about Elon.....the landscape is littered with the shattered reputations of those who assert that "He can't do that....."

We'll see.....
I still need MORE than 220 miles....OR a supercharger station that can refill my car much faster than an hour and a half for trips that are longer than 220 miles, and $35,000 is WAAAAY too much to pay for a car with teething problems.


Good Luck, early adopters!

 

of course, anything can happen. but if you look back, your concerns have been shared by others for many years now. so it doesn't tell us anything about the future.

and now, more than any other time in tesla history, they are closer than ever to profits and positive cash flow.

 

I would disagree with the qualification "rolling the dice".
Yes, building rockets that can land is extremely difficult.
And building a world wide auto manufacturing company that disrupts the sales as well as the car market is even more difficult.
But that doesn't mean he is simply "rolling the dice".

A whole lot of planning, learning, implementation is done each step along the way.

As for "teething problems" I would say they are done.
Sure, not the highest rated reliability yet, but I would argue a Model 3 coming off the line today will have a better than average reliability.
Tesla does this radical thing with their cars. When they find an improvement they can, or need to make, they make it.
The Volt had this annoying placement of the drive setting (eco, sport, normal) in their first gen. It was right next to the power button. A number of people accidently turned off their cars when they meant to change drive settings.
GM fixed this, in the second gen Volt.

Tesla had some feedback that the seats in the 3 could be better. Tesla introduced new seats this spring. They don't wait years, they fix things in months (even weeks or days if it is software).

Now, with a Prius, you have been spoiled with phenomenal reliability. I do expect Tesla to reach that level, but it may take some time.

 

Oh, CATCH-up! Never mind.