Featured Tesla Model 3 May Have a 300 Mile Range Option

276 thousand depostis as of sunday. If 60% convert that is 166 thousand cars (assuming a lower coversion rate because of time to wait), which at $42 thousand a car in revenue (musk thinks average price out the door) is $7B in sales.

That is crazy high sales in such a short time.

Because there is no engine, the front seats get pushed foward leaving plenty of rear leg room, and extra trunk space in the front trunk, while allowing a shorter easier to park car. Shorter car with midsize room, means a less expensive chasis, one way to save cost and weight.

Single big display plus heads up, allow a less expensive dash to be built, and gives a clean high tech look.

Tesla Model 3 Tweet Storm By Musk Reveals Tons Of New Details

We find some more information from the tweets.

cd is targetted at 0.21 which allows for a smaller battery pack to hit 215 epa miles with rwd.
AWD or D will be a less than $5000 option
air suspension will be an option to automatically adjust ride height
They chose a rear trunk instead of hatchback to give more rear passenger headroom. The car will still fit a surf board or a bike, with back seats folding completely down (bob asked) ;-)
tow hitch will be an option.

From other posts it likely will have a bigger battery option allowing around 300 mile range and a P option allowing 0-60 in around 4 seconds..

 

what is the timeline to build 166,000 cars, plus projected sales over that time?

 

The only details we have now is Tesla plans to be able to produce 500,000 cars by 2020, which was the capacity of the Nummi plant Tesla bought.
Musk has stated they expect a very quick ramp up.
Each of the two current Model S/X lines can run at about 1,000/week, or 50,000/year.

I would take a stab at a 100,000 run rate for the Model 3 in 2018, 200,000-250,000 in 2019.

Sales will depend upon how much competition there is, and how well Tesla executes their plan.

 

X, where X is determined by when the model 3 is ready to build Ready (optimistic is sept 2017, pesimistic is december 2018), plus ramp up Ramp(likely 6 month for first 30,000 cars), then the Rate (likely 200,000 cars per year)

Ready + Ramp + (166,000- 30,000)/RATE
Pesimistic is February 2021, my best guess in July 2019 ;-) for those not yet in line. Of course optimistic will have fewer cancellations so a bigger number say 80% conversion and February 2019 to get out 218,000 of the currently deposited.

Really no one outside tesla knows how close they are to the optimistic projections.

 

I'm guessing Tesla will have yet another model before they can fulfill all the 270k orders

 

On tax credits it depends on how many they sell and when, but insideevs estmates full tax credits all of 2018, $$3750 for the first half of 2019, and $1875 for the second half of 2019.
When Will The $7,500 US Credit Expire For The Tesla Model 3...And Everyone Else?
Check their analysis and figures.
My guess is everyone that deposited in the US will have the oportunity to get some tax credits, but they may have to step up to a better optioned car.

 

How is that supposed to work? Tesla will have to produce 300k T3 in just a few months if everyone is to get a 2018 model year.

 

another factory?

 

Nothing is stopping them, but the rumor is probably better than any concrete information on the model Y before its really close to production. Definitely sounds like they will make a CUV based on the model 3. It could be developed and produced as early as the end of 2018 (2.5 years from now). Tesla has now admitted the falcon wings were a mistake, but they committed and were going to do them. I would keep quiet about the model Y and R (roadster) to make sure internal dreaming doesn't become expectations.

They are working on that ;-) Gigafactory should be good for 500,000 battery packs ;-) a year. They are working on getting a factory in china, which could avoid a big tarrif, but force tesla to give secrets to a chinese partner that might turn around and be a competitor. here is tesla europe
Check Out Tesla's Hot New European Factory - Bloomberg

 

iirc, isn't there only one mine in all the USA producing lithium? Most of the rare earth coming from China? Suddenly a Chinese Tesla factory makes sense ... a way to control junky knockoffs similar to why Disney is building a Shanghai park .... perhaps Tesla also gets guarantees for raw battery materials?
.

 

Lithium is not really rare ;-) there is a lot of it, it just has some places that are easier to get it. The cheapest lithium to extract is in South America and Australia. Fun Fact, not much of the weight of a tesla is lithium, most of the model 3 will be steel, then aluminum. There is probably plenty of lithium in Wyoming for all of tesla's batteries, but it will probably use the stuff from Nevada, Mexico, and Chile in its gigafactory.

China of course mines a lot of lithium and iron,but the big reason to produce cars there for the chinese market is to avoild the tarrifs and get the tax credits the Chinese give for local production. Tesla's are heavy vehicles. It just makes sense to manufacture where they are consumed, but you need demand.

 

can't wait for all the reservation holders to flood the market with Priuses and CTs, one of which I will buy!

 

Based upon the cars parked at the Tesla stores, don't hold your breath. In 2012, a bunch of former Prius adopters jumped ship for Volt, Tesla, Leaf and others.

It looks like the Model 3 has conquered mostly non-Prius folks.

Bob Wilson

 

Oh I think there will be a few. When I was in line at the local store there were at least 4-5 Prius in the lot.

 

Out of how many?

Bob Wilson

 

Oh by no means a large percentage. Probably only 2-3%.
However 2% of the market for the Model 3 is a lot more than 3% of the Model S.

I expect more of the Prius customers, or potential customers will move towards the next generation Tesla, GM and Nissan offerings than did with the first gen offerings.

If for no other reason than scale.

 

This makes sense given the percentage of Prius sales. This suggests the Model 3 is conquest capturing non-hybrid owners and that is a good thing!

Bob Wilson

 

I couldn't agree more!
Frankly, the BMWs and other gas guzzlers in the lot made me much happier than the hybrids.
The first guy in line (who was their overnight) drove out of the parking lot in a Ford 150 PU. That put a huge smile on my face