Tesla is about to release the beast.

I don't know, I'm just telling you what happened in my SIL's case, to show that the article is incorrect.

 

They're going to tell them 3 to 5 months depending on the configuration they want.

 

Currently, all Tesla car are custom built to owner specifications. They don't have 10K or more cars sitting in inventory waiting for buyers like Austin or Toyota does. Custom orders require a deposit whether you are purchasing a sofa or a car.

 

Yes and No.

Almost all (not every) US reservationist (not the whole world) who wants a high margin car starting at $49K and higher has received an invitation to custom design and order their car (requiring an additional $2500 nonrefundable deposit) and receive it in 3 to 5 months. This does not include those who want the $35K base car who will get theirs starting in about 6 months in 2019 as Elon predicted over 2 years ago.

There has been a lot of speculation within and without the Tesla community as to what this means from dire to optimistic. In my opinion, this strategy results from a combination of a number of factors.

• starting in July, Tesla will be producing >20K model 3s per month, which means over 100K model 3s by the end of the year to supplement around 35K already delivered in the US., (not including Model S and X deliveries which will add to that number).
• Tesla will get a huge infusion of cash with these confirmation deposits as well as from actual payment for these cars upon delivery.
• Tesla will show a significant profit starting in Q3/18 (which starts tomorrow)
• New Tesla owners will take full advantage of the maximum $7500 federal tax credit which will then decrease by 50% for Tesla deliveries starting on Jan 1, 2019.
• This strategy will clear out a backlog for more highly optioned model 3 placeholders and pave the way for production of the base $35K model 3 in about 6 months.
• This strategy will clear production capacity for delivery of RHD model 3s to Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world.

In my opinion, this is all very positive news. The Future is at hand.

 

Link , please.

 

These are not my words, but those of a much better Internet writer than I am. I agree with his analysis and conclusions and they bear repeating:

If you factory order from a Ford dealer, for example, your order will not go in immediately, it will be put into a batch that will be made some time in the future, usually several weeks. When the car is made and shipped, then you can pick it up at the dealer. Depending on what you buy and where the car is assembled, your car may be shipped over an ocean, offloaded and go through customs, then be loaded onto a train or truck to be shipped to the dealer where you ordered. The car will then be prepped for delivery and you would be notified to come pick up your car, just be sure to bring a large check for the balance. With Tesla, all cars are made in Fremont, CA. When your configuration is final, an order will be placed at the factory. Your car will then enter production, be checked over and any defects found corrected, delivered to a railhead for shipment cross country or loaded on a truck. Depending on how many order there are for your MS/MX/M3 when your order is submitted, it may take weeks for your car to start down the assembly line. Actual production typically takes 5-7 days from start to finish. After that is complete, the car will be shipped to a Tesla delivery center near you. You will be given a delivery time window after your configuration becomes final. As the date draws near, a Tesla delivery specialist will contact you to give your a more definite delivery date. If you plan to trade in your old car, you will be asked to take it by a Tesla store/service center for evaluation where Tesla will make an offer. Typically, the offer will be lower than what you can get from Car Max or selling out of your driveway. If you take your trade in to Car Max or some other legitimate wholesaler and receive a written offer, Tesla will honor that price. When you show up to purchase your Tesla, the agreed price for your trade-in will be applied to the final cost of your M3. You, of course, will have to sign over ownership of your trade-in to Tesla.

If you want the car you want with the options you want NOW, that is possible ordering a MX/MS. Typically, from the moment you configure to the moment you take delivery will be 8-12 weeks. The M3 is taking longer because of the backlog of reservations. The same thing happened when the MS and MX were launched. Once the M3 line is up to full capacity then it will join the other two models in wait time. That's just the way it is.

It is FUD to claim Tesla does not make the $35,000 car. They already do, that's still the base price, but have decided to ship to customers who order the long range battery and other options first. Why are they doing this? Pay attention to the news. Tesla is the most shorted stock in this country and under attack. So what? The what is Tesla is under considerable pressure to show a profit or credit to fuel future expansion (i.e. the Model Y, Tesla pickup truck, Roadster) will dry up. The company would find it extremely hard to keep operating and growing. The shorts are out to cut off Tesla's credit to make it nearly impossible to stay in business. If Tesla had decided to offer the base model out of the gate, you might get your car, but there also might not be a company there to support your purchase later. Is that what you want? It is unprofitable at this time to ship a whole bunch of $35,000 cars. Once the assembly line is up and humming above 5,000 cars per week and Tesla can show a profit in the 3rd and 4th quarters, then the base $35,000 RWD with zero options car will be available to order like any other M3. If you can't live with that, then you had best get your $1,000 back and order another car from another manufacturer.

The reason you guys are suddenly receiving so many invites to configure the past few days is because of the federal tax credit. Tesla entered the 2nd quarter close to delivering its 200,000th vehicle in the U.S. Once that barrier is breached, then an automatic phase out of the tax credit begins. The full $7,500 credit would still be in effect for the quarter following the one when the 200,000th delivery was made, then fall to $3,750 for the next two quarters, and then $1,875 for the two quarters after that. By delaying the 200,000th delivery until July 1st or after when we're into the 3rd quarter, Tesla customers, all Tesla customers, will receive the full $7,500 tax credit if they take delivery through the end of 2018. Given the number of orders, industry watchers say having the full $7,500 tax credit in force for both the 3rd and 4th quarters is worth $368,000,000 to Tesla customers.

There are no more problems with "gaps" or anything else with the M3. Those were early production problems, typical for new models, that were addressed months ago. When you buy any new car made by any manufacturer, it's a good idea to wait a while to let them iron out the inevitable kinks inherent in making complex machinery like a car.

If you are dead-set on buying a base model for $35,000 you will be able to get one starting in six months. What you won't get is the full $7,500 tax credit. You will probably receive a $3,750 tax credit if you order early enough in 2019. However, if the tax credit is THAT important to you, know that it can only be applied to one year's taxes and there is no carryover to a 2nd tax year. Don't like that? Blame Congress, it wrote the law during the Bush administration. What does that mean? After taking your deductions and arriving at your taxable income, if it turns out your federal tax bill is $5,000, you will pay $0 in federal taxes that year, but the remaining $2,500 of the $7,500 will do you no good, it will be gone with the wind. The next year after you take the credit you will be paying your normal tax bill. If a $3,750 tax credit means THAT much to you, are you sure you're not stretching your finances too far to purchase a M3? Are you sure you really want a bare bones base model? That means black paint, and not the most attractive black Tesla offers. Your M3's range will be 220 miles max, that's good enough driving around town, but not really all that practical taking a trip. There will be no fancy wheels. There will be no souped up interior, the stereo will be standard. Few people ever wind up ordering a base price car with zero options for those reasons. You sure you want to do that?

There is no so called bait and switch. Musk said the night the M3 was announced 2 years ago that higher option, more expensive models would be sold first to help pay for development/production costs. Tesla never hid this. You don't want to wait any more. I want a new iPhone, but the new model will not be available until this fall. There is nothing I can do about that. My choice to wait. You're in the same boat with a base M3. If you want one, you're just going to have to wait until Tesla can make them profitably, which is late this year, early 2019.

The reason the floodgate has opened is a good sign. It means Tesla finally is achieving high volume production for the M3. The same thing happened when the MX was introduced. What you're also missing is that Tesla has been stockpiling M3s. The end of the quarter ends all restraints. The tax break no longer matters. Tesla is going to deliver a ton of M3s in July which is why so many are receiving notifications of short wait times between configuration and delivery. They already have the car and up to 40,000 others stored somewhere and started to ship them to service centers this past week. That is what is happening. If you have delayed configuring because you're holding out for the $35,000 base model or the P model, then someone else received the car you would have, in many cases, because they were fine with getting the initial rear wheel drive model with the 310 mile range battery pack. Because most options are now available except the $35,000 base, everyone is being allowed to configure and make an official order. The timing is simply the result of volume. Tesla already makes more M3s than any manufacturer in the world is making any model EV. The MS/MX line, for example, churns out 2,000 cars a week when running at full capacity. Tesla is going to double that with the M3 this year. The Bolt? Leaf? Whatever? Fugettaboutit. Look at those manufacturers' production numbers. Canadian customers in Canada were recently told there's a year wait to get one of those and that production line has been up and running for years.

No American car company since Ford has managed to avoid bankruptcy. Zero. None. Tucker, all of them. Tesla is on the verge of becoming financially successful. If you guys would quit complaining long enough to look at the big picture you'd see something remarkable happening. This little company is growing like gangbusters. Everything they make from batteries to cars, the problem is satisfying demand. How many other companies can claim that? Sales for new ICE cars have been in the doldrums for a couple of years. Not Tesla. But to repair their credit rating, Tesla needs to show a couple of quarters of profitability. That means you $35,000 guys are going to have to wait six months. There is no getting around it just like I can't get my new iPhone until October. That's just the way the production line crumbles. If you simply can't wait any longer, then go to your My Tesla web page, cancel and get your $1,000 back and have fun driving whatever you wind up buying instead. Think you'll regret that decision one day, but hey, that's my opinion.​

 

Apparently this 60,000 cancellations number is a result of an article written by Fortune Magazine over a year ago. Fortune cited Business Insider as the source of their information. Business Insider has a history of poorly researched articles and tend to sensationalize "news" to sustain their readership. @orenji takes the 60,000 cancellation figure out of context and thus serves nothing better than to spread FUD.

To put the 63,000 cancellation figure into context:

• the number is old news dating from August, 2017.
• total orders for the model 3 fell from 518K to 455K (63,000) over the previous 12 months (July, 2016 to July, 2017). That is an average of around 6,000 cancellations a month during that period.
• what @orenji fails to include is that Tesla has been adding 1,800 new reservations........a day at the time this article was written. That is around 55,000 new reservations per month.
• Many of those cancelled reservations were switched to Tesla MS/MX car sales as a result of Tesla's "anti-selling' the model 3 to prevent it from cannibalizing sales of the MS/MX
• over a year period of time, people's circumstances change and they can no longer afford or want a new car at any price point or readiness, - loss of job, divorce, change in financial fortune, birth of a child, changed their mind, etc. This is not unique to Tesla. it happens to all car makers.
• The 63,000 cancellation figure (if true) is 12% of the total reservation figure, which is a far cry from the 23% cancellation figure reported elsewhere. The facts are nobody knows for sure because Tesla doesn't release these figures and therefore people who say they are "in the know" are just spreading FUD.
• Elon is quoted: “It’s like if you’re a restaurant and you’re serving hamburgers and there’s like an hour-and-a-half wait for hamburgers — do you really want to encourage more people to order more hamburgers,”

If we fast forward to today, July 1. 2018, it appears that Tesla is emerging from "production hell," production is ramping up with fewer problems, and the FUTURE looks rosy, indeed.