The raw data on the OBD-II bus is correct, but the speedometer readout is programed to read high. Or so I have heard.
How are you measuring it? Are you still using the OEM tires? Over a 90 mile stretch of I-90 in Washington State, starting just past a known 'bust' between mileposts 218 and 219 (just 0.4 mile apart), my odometer differs from the mileposts by between 0.1 and 0.2 miles.
So your warranty is for 3% fewer miles than stated. You might wish to notify TMC about that, and get a written extension of your warranty.
It should be a no-brainer with today's technology to have accurate speedometers. The inaccuracy leads one to speculate on a possible motive.
Is the speed of modern vehicles still derived the old fashioned way from the axle rotational speed and tire geometry?
Watch this video. There are more factors at play than are apparent. The ODB-II data gets rather funky on some changes during slower speeds. I didn't realize the effort Toyota made to smooth out the readings. Being a little high at times sure beats it being way off like that.
I have driven many rental Prii in the US and my own Prius PiH in Europe and I noticed that the speedometer reading for the European Prius appears to be significantly more "optimistic" than for US models: A Swiss review of the PiH highlights this wide difference: 90 km/h (effective) at 100 km/h (indicated) [=-10%] 113 km/h (effective) at 130 km/h (indicated) [=-13%] whereas in the US, it is always within 2 mph of reality. On the other hand, I found that the odometer readings (and fuel consumption stats!) were remarkably super accurate. So this excludes the 15" vs. 17" wheel size being a significant factor. I think Toyota deliberately programmed the speedometer in this way, not so much to "protect" their drivers from speeding tickets (we are talking about Prius drivers after all ) but to encourage us to drive slower, at more fuel-efficient speeds. This will be significant at motorway/freeway speeds (since fuel consumption will be much influenced by wind resistance that is proportional to the square of the speed - e.g. twice as much aerodynamic drag at 75mph than at 50mph.)
But that means your mileage limit under the lease is effectively smaller than it would be with an accurate ODO.