Scientific American article about EV's and Plug-Ins

Discussion in 'Gen 1 Prius Plug-in 2012-2015' started by Michaelvickdog123, Aug 10, 2010.

  1. Bob64

    Bob64 Sapphire of the Blue Sky

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    I wonder if the article factors in the various efficiencies in generation of power (upwards of 80% vs 25% in conventional cars), as well as the fact that most of the charging will occur at night- during periods where excess electricity would have otherwise been grounded (aka thrown away)...
     
  2. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    I see, thanks. It makes sense, and I have a vague memory of the same. This 'efficiency' gain is a dilution of kwh/btu penalty for low power use coal plant, but I think goes back to what I have been posting: folding EV demand into baseload increases coal use.

    I doubt the article tried to specify *which* coal plant was being used, or how much of the coal was brown or black, but took an average kwh/btu number for coal based generation.
     
  3. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Bob, it does go into great detail regarding efficiencies. I recommend you read it, it is very informative.

    Do you have a reference for 'discarding' electricity with quantifiable amounts ?
     
  4. Michaelvickdog123

    Michaelvickdog123 New Member

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    The numbers are for off-peak useage.

    I have no idea what the scientists who did the study must have been thinking?? They clearly don't know what they are talking about...neither does SA. :rolleyes:
     
  5. Michaelvickdog123

    Michaelvickdog123 New Member

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    Did you read it before passing judgement?

    If so, tell me what it said?
     
  6. Michaelvickdog123

    Michaelvickdog123 New Member

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    Many folk here seem too quick to pass judgement on an article it's VERY clear they have not read. I'm shocked. :rolleyes:. Not.

    If you really want to learn everything that's in the article (not much more than what I've already stated), then i suggest you buy the mag. I'm ONLY the messenger.

    This much I'm pretty sure of - SA does not have an agenda other than reporting scientific information/articles.

    .
     
  7. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Oh I wouldn't expect that much detail. Just that the took into account an average gain in efficiency from eliminating the overnight inefficiencies. This may actually be taken into account in figure 12, but I could find no reference to it.
    As for EV use, your own reference shows a decrease in CO2 emissions up to 50% maker penetration. There may be an increase in coal use, but it results in a net decrease in CO2 emissions.

    And again, it will take us quite some time to reach 50% market share, or even 25%. Giving us plenty of time to continue to update the grid.
     
  8. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I would agree with the agenda angle, which is why I figured bad research or editing.
    If it were a free article I would certainly go read it. Once it hits the library perhaps.
    But based on what you have mentioned of it, it has some inconsistencies and poorly relayed information.
     
  9. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    I'll emphasize that the reference I linked we are discussing is *only* California; that market mostly covers additional demand mostly with NG which is the best fossil fuel case scenario; and even then the GHG emissions reductions are a modest 13%.

    I don't sneeze at a 13% reduction, but put in the context of the price of EV, we are not getting much green for our green. Certainly alternatives like upgrading the home, installing solar thermal, or even installing PV in good locales gives a much greater GHG reduction/$ return.
     
  10. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Your comment is not directed at me, but I am curious. What inconsistencies ?
     
  11. Michaelvickdog123

    Michaelvickdog123 New Member

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    Perhaps for those of you who are truely interested, the findings that SA sumarizes come from: a January 2008 report from Oak Ridge National Laboratory and shows why plug-in vehicles in the U.S. will, on average, be just a little bit dirtier than gasoline HEVs. Whether you believe their findings, or not, I have to believe the chemists, engineers and physicists at Oakridge National Lab have no agenda, and certainly know how to conduct a scientific study? One would think, anyway.

    More detail of this study can be found here (but this site is only looking at electric and plug-in vehicles, and associated technologies, from an investment standpoint):

    Plug-in Vehicles Will Be Dirtier Than HEVs | Alternative Energy Stocks


    If you're really pissed off after reading the above article, then you definitley don't want to read this one:

    PHEVs and EVs; Plugging Into a Lump of Coal | Alternative Energy Stocks

    Word of caution - make sure you have your defibrillators handy before reading. Really.
     
  12. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Alrighty then, having looked at the slides The Dirty Truth about Plug-in Hybrids, Made Interactive: Scientific American

    I find that the numbers do go in the right direction, I'm sure you originally just had a typo. But I severely doubt the scientists fact checked 67% of new yorks electric power for plug in hybrids coming from oil in 2020. Perhaps they forgot to model future needs correctly. New York miraculously gets rid of all this petroleum generated power in 2030, but Texas portrayed as a clean state decides in 2030 to add petroleum power plants and coal while no renewable. A quick look at the texas utilities find that diesel generators are only used at installations for blackout power but someone thinks between 2020 and 2030 texas will back away from wind and natural gas generation and move toward oil. The biggest problem I have is the speed that this is taking place. It seems to ramp quickly to a high penetration value, and but most models have 4-10% penetration for 2020. If ev and phev's do have as high penetration it will reduce electrical rates and help provide money to green up the grid. So don't be scared at the data, just make sure the assumptions seem reasonable.
     
  13. Michaelvickdog123

    Michaelvickdog123 New Member

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    Cool slide show. Thanks.

    I think the only way to really find out what their assumptions were, and which ones make sense, and which ones don't etc...is to find the original 2008 article from the boys at ONL. This is just a summary from the good people at SA, and like every summary, never tells the entire story.

    But regardless of whether all the assumptions make sense, or whether the numbers are absolute...is really irrelevant. Few studies are ever accurate 10-15 years after they were conducted.

    I think the take-away for me is: (1) Your individual carbon and energy savings will depend upon where you live (duh), and the source of electricity from your provider, and (2) The savings are not likely to be as optimistic as some have made them out to be. In most scenarios, there will be savings...but the ONL article would seem to conclude that the savings are highly dependent.
     
  14. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Thank you for the links! Very interesting paper.

    Again, no argument that how clean your EV is depends on how clean your fuel source is.

    After reading the first half of it, and scanning the rest, they have made some assumptions which are simply wrong, and others brought into question due to the erroneous assumption.

    1) Their auto sales volumes are way off. >15 Million a year may have been reasonable in 2007, but obviously that number needs to be recalculated.

    2) If PHEV sales were as a percentage of total vehicle sales, since total vehicle sales are much lower, so would PHEVs.

    3) 20% market penetration by 2020, given the above, seems overly optimistic. While the start point, 0% in 2010, is spot on, I think the adoption of PHEVs will not be that rapid. Don't get me wrong, I would like it if it were;)

    That said, there is some excellent work done in the paper. Our grid definitely needs updating.

    While the estimated increase of demand for PHEVs is 1-2% (by 2020), the overall estimated increase in demand is about 4% (EIA).
    So we need to clean up our grid for many reasons other than PHEV/EVs.
     
  15. Michaelvickdog123

    Michaelvickdog123 New Member

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    I wonder whether some of their projecdtions of market share had to do with the spiking of gas prices during (or around) the period when the study was conducted?

    As I said in another post, the vast majority of Americans are motivated by perceived value/economics. If gas prices were to spike into the $4 range, say in the next few years...and given all the new hybrid/EV options coming out that hopefully will keep prices down...then I could see a drammatic shift in the American car buying habits.

    I also would assume that their study is to estimate the worst case scenarios - as in, what't the worst case in terms of number/market share of EV cars on the road, that would then put a major strain on the grid.

    Finally, perhaps the biggest polluters are China and India. Since we all share one atmosphere...those folks also need to think green, if there truely is to be a global impact to the environment.
     
  16. zenMachine

    zenMachine Just another Onionhead

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    Two misspellings in just one paragraph. I'm highly suspicious...
     
  17. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Good paper by ORNL. Thanks for the link.

    They spent a little time explaining their modeling, NY's high oil usage came from using 7% of their power from oil, but not building new power plants. They used NEMS and explained that it likely would not correctly build the right number of new power plants. Their model had them build combined cycle gas later when needed, this timing would likely be before those oil plants were major uses of power.

    PHEVs were split 30% compact, 30% midsize, 20% medium SUV, 20%, large SUV. HEV were compact or midsize averaging 40 mpg. That is why CO2 emissions are higher in some areas using PHEVs because they are comparing different classes of cars. They do provide breakdown of marginal power source for 2020 which is close to today, so you can plug in the kwh/mi and mpg for your vehicle choice and find out how much more or less CO2 you would be producing.

    ORNL took a very optimistic projection on PHEV growing to 25% vehicle sales in 2020. It then kept sales at that level because they did not want to model new power plants (model may break at larger penetration). SA should have adjusted vehicle sales to 2010 levels which are much lower than projected in 2007.

    ORNL gives a good snapshot of power usage and clearly points cheaper energy for cars with PHEV and EVs, but a grid that is relatively high in CO2 with new power sources if no penalty is given for producing CO2. Many states have already put policy in place to change this but there is nothing at the national level (SO2 and NOX cap and trade limits these though). The report does emphasize problems with the energy mix of the grid even without PHEVs and .EVs

    I don't really like the term biggest polluters, but china and india will have the largest green house, SO2, and NOX increases.

    Simply removing coal plants in the US while building them in China and India will not remove net polutants. That is one reason why absolute demonizing of coal may be counterproductive. Cleaner coal especially with sequestration in out years helps global reduction. Stopping new coal plants while grandfathering in the least efficient plants is poor public policy.
     
  18. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    How about building new coal plants, AND keeping the old ones ? Absent a carbon tax in one form or another, there is no mechanism to shut down the old plants.
     
  19. donee

    donee New Member

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    BALOONEY !!!! Its not how energy sources are made, its about how little is used. The gasoline car system in metropolitan traffic is lucky to convert 10 % of that energy into motion, and then 1/2 of it is wasted in brakes, rather than overcoming air friction and tire friction..


    I have not read this article, but it if concentrates on how electricity is made - its just another case of Scientists playing Engineer....And being quite ignorant.....
     
  20. donee

    donee New Member

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    How about burning COAL to make electricity to make gasoline and then burning the gasoline ? Most oil reserves do not have sufficient hydrogen to make gasoline, and then the oil companies burn off the Natural gas at the well, rather than transport it the refinery to make the gasoline. So, they then use electricity to make the hydrogen, to make the gasoline!

    This is what we do now!!!!!!!!