SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

This virus has an unusually long RNA which suggests it has more trick than the usual ... a primate IQ test.

Bob Wilson

 

In this day and age, and with the Corona Virus and modern media does that hold true?
Sources today are endless, and you can find one to back whatever you want to believe.

 

That certainly explains why my area was the first in this country to identify "community spread". There are plenty of CES attendees here.

And CES substantially predates the European ski resort mass spreadings, where certain bars at the center of the apres-ski nightlife have been traced as primary spreading sites. While many were involved, Ischgl resort in Austria seems to have been the worst spreader, with many European nations tracing their outbreaks to young skiers returning from there.

 

And another mostly among young people: "covid toe" condition. Discoloration, inflammation, and/or lesions on the toes.

 

It really depends upon whether we will share a bottle of Irish whiskey together or I'll have to filter it through my kidneys first. Your choice.

Bob Wilson

 

You are in agreement with every expert I have ever heard on the subject.
The social distancing is never going to allow us to return to living the way we did before.

It is designed to allow us to not overwhelm our medical system until a vaccine is in place and widely available.

 

Humans need to learn from this latest pandemic, or we'll back here again.

 

i wonder if wet markets will simply become black market.

even a communist regime may have difficulty eradicating something so culturally inculcated

 

Saw that on my phone's feed this morning.

We still have farmers markets in the US. Today, the meatmongers just have their product in refrigerated cases instead of out in the open. That is likely what will happen with China's wet markets in time.

Now, the dog and cat might be move to the black market, but that is true of banned food products everywhere, like horse and haggis in the US, and cheese with live maggots in Europe.

 

can't wait to try my vegan pizza

 

Then there's vegan AND gluten-free.

 

great article in politico, will florida be the hardest hit economy?

 

time: hokkaido, japan. authorities reopened too soon, and are experiencing a second wave larger than the first. 'our mistakes and misfortune may be a lesson for others'

 

Source: How overly optimistic modeling distorted Trump team’s coronavirus response - POLITICO

. . .
Shortly after IHME debuted its 60,000-death forecast, Fauci on April 8 echoed the sentiment, saying the administration now believed the eventual toll would be "more like like 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000" deaths health officials previously estimated.
. . . ​

So Johns Hopkins reports:

• 53,934 deaths - 4/26/2020 5:31:20 AM

Before the recent Priuschat pause, I'm still in the higher number camp, even higher than 200,000 CoV deaths:

• 53,694 - US dead
• 936,616 - US confirmed cases
  • 5.7% = 53694 / 936616 :: US death rate
• 328,200,000 - USA population
  • 0.3% = 936616 / 328200000 :: percent US recovered

So when does the actual death rate taper off:

• ~10 days till infection shows symptoms
• ~20 days, the 5.7% deaths occur
• 2.8 is transmission efficiency, infection rate from one patient in 100% vulnerable population
• 11,721,428 = 328200000 / 2.8 :: expected cases in next 10 days, May 5
  • 939,249 USA cases, April 25
• 668,121 = 11,721,428 * 5.7% :: expected deaths in next 20 days, May 15
  • 53,934 CoV deaths, April 25

These are linear projections that only have merit because at this stage, the 'recovered' population is so small relative to the total population. Assuming we're still here on May 5 and May 15, I'll do another linear projection.

My projections are grim but better than the unrealistic 60,000 fatalities when we're already at 54,000.

Bob Wilson

 

i have always seen the deaths as secondary to the cases. (not to the individual, or their family and friends)

but in the overall scheme of overcoming the virus, keeping the numbers down in the hospitals, and getting the world up and running again.

what do the number of deaths tell us? we don't even have data on age or health

 

Death is well defined and tracked. Infections are less accurate.

The USA practice is to test those with overt symptoms as a way of confirming a diagnosis. There have been too few wider, population tests except for a scatter of nursing homes, jails, and one aircraft carrier. The asymptomatic cases are the great unknown.

I use the Johns Hopkins cases knowing it is primarily those who seek medical help but I suspect the actual number is much larger. Testing also needs aggressive contact tracing and that remains a huge hole in the public health system.

BTW, I found an iPhone app called, "ContactTracing" but am not impressed. It may be due to the limited GPS capability but the last location is about a mile from home when I was bringing takeout dinner home. Regardless, I'll test it today when I check out the latest Tesla software (stops at stop signs and traffic lights.)

My reason for sharing my method is there are different models. The one with the 60,000 number is based on pattern matching to other country epidemics and has merit. But I'm more of a Monte Carlo model that uses probabilities and characteristics. This comes from how I used to analyze computer networks based upon the characteristics of TCP/IP and the available metrics. Then there is the Gompertz function model. I suspect that like climate models, there a much larger set that is not being followed by our PriusChat community.

Bob Wilson

 

Why experts are questioning two hyped antibody studies in coronavirus hotspots | World news | The Guardian

Recent studies in CA and NY are casting the idea of the much larger population have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 than the confirmed cases. The implication is that with more infected population, the fatality rate will decrease down to what is thought to be similar to an accepted fatality rate of seasonal flu of ~0.1%. Although there are some very valid criticisms on those studies, I wonder what would happen to the seasonal flu fatality rate, if somehow the entire population of the US is tasted for the seasonal flu. Wouldn't the result show much more infected numbers than confirmed flu cases, thus bringing down the flu fatality rate much, much lower than 0.1%?