SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

That depends on just who is doing the assignments. When Central America is counted separately from North America, rather than as a subset, I more commonly see Mexico placed in North than Central, even outside the NAFTA treaty.

 

Returning OT - Singapore seems to be going about business as usual - most schools /businesses humming along - as well as serious testing sanitizing & appropriate quarantining. Death & contraction rates hardly a discussion. Really makes one wonder if shutting down the economic machine was the better choice.

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Just spoke to my father, and all the Chinese places have closed in their part of North America.

 

They demonstrate how you can (mostly) go about normal business if you aggressively test, trace and isolate. Most of the world (including the US) didn't do this so we have the terrible choice of shut down the economy or mass deaths (and sometimes both).

 

read another report hours old just now - they ARE starting to shut stuff down as infection rates rise.
Singapore is often praised for its COVID-19 response. How does it compare to Australia's?
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Would you take a vaccine from Bill Gates, the guy who wants to reduce the world's population?

 

I was thinking about this as ~20% are hospitalized with confirmed cases. This suggests 80% may not be listed at COVID-19 cases. So using USA data from Johns Hopkins:

• 383,256 (confirmed) / 20% ~= 1,866,280 non-diagnosed cases

The only salvation is this rapidly increases the pool of previously infected individuals.

Bob Wilson

 

From tochatihu's link:

...South Korea appears to have discovered almost half of all its SARS-CoV-2 infections. The authors estimate that on 31 March 2020, Germany had 460,000 infections. Based on the same method, they calculate that the United States had more than ten million, Spain more than five million, Italy around three million and the United Kingdom around two million infections...​

 

That large number of infected but not tested would certainly make COVID-19 less lethal than has been suggested. With the estimated number of infected, once we are through the first wave of pandemic, the virus is likely to remain as endemic strain in population.

 

It's not impossible that SARS-CoV-2 may prove and behave long term like the usual 4 circulating “common cold” coronavirus strains that all of us have had multiple times since childhood. In a long term sense, that would make it "just another respiratory virus".

In the short term (upon first infection), however, this novel virus is not being seen by human physiology as "just another respiratory virus”, and causing markedly higher hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality than the common cold strains. Not as bad as many feared in with initial (poor quality) data, but still quite serious.

A theory I have been musing upon for some time:

Children very rarely are hospitalized or die from SARS-CoV-2. Like the usual 4 circulating coronavirus strains, they are seeing this virus for the first time but appear to mount an appropriate immune response that leads to recovery without cytokine storm.

Immunity wanes over the years and we continue to get infected with the same 4 circulating coronavirus strains, although our immune system does not appear to entirely forget prior infectious - better positioning us to respond to subsequent attacks throughout the rest of life.

But imagine a population living in an isolated land, never exposed to the usual 4 circulating coronavirus strains until for the first time as adults. It would not be hard to imagine a markedly more severe response and fatality rate to the usual 4 circulating coronavirus strains among such adults. Part of the Native American initial virological lethal experience introduced from another continent?

A somewhat comparable modern example might be adult onset chicken pox. Such afflicted adults are hospitalized at much higher rates than children and sometimes develop severe pneumonia. Adults with comorbidities are widely disproportionately affected…

 

Haven't I heard that upwards of 90% of the Native American / First Nation's population was wiped out by new-to-them European diseases alone? This included whole tribes and clans.

Of course, that wasn't from just new 'common colds', it was numerous diseases. In return, the only thing they could gift to the Europeans was syphilis.

 

That doesn't really address any technical details about the COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2. There is another thread in Fred's House of Politics where speculation about whether or not you personally will accept taking the eventual vaccine.

Personally, I'm hoping you and those who think the same won't take the vaccine ... Darwin Award. As Ron White said:

Bob Wilson

 

Anti-vaxer nonsense?

Mike

 

Contact tracing is the only alternative while we wait for an effective vaccine and medications. But I would agree that contact tracing has limits ... especially when ordinary pandemic precautions are hit-and-miss. You always risk infection from a neighboring State or Country.

Bob Wilson

 

You need to start double checking your sources.

PolitiFact | Website falsely claims Bill Gates refused to vaccinate his own children
Hoax claim that ‘Bill Gates refused to vaccinate his own children’ | Africa Check
FACT CHECK: Bill Gates Admits Vaccinations Are Designed So Governments Can Depopulate the World?

 

What? What? A right-wing, troll might try to hijack a technical thread with a foolish and false claim?

Bob Wilson

 

Doh, didn't realize which thread was which, or even that it was "technical" in nature. There is a plethora of posts, and "action" in both of the threads, and I was only casually following and quoting along. Guess I should've looked closer at the bread crumb navigation, though having a way to identify or 'flare' the subs within the "alerts" could also be helpful, especially when there are multiple similar threads. If I misquoted someone, or failed to pass the test, well, then.

Perhaps you can qualify to be a volunteer for one of Bill's current offerings?

Coronavirus Treatment: Bill Gates-Backed Potential COVID-19 Vaccine Set To Begin Human Testing
Inovio coronavirus vaccine trial starts in Philadelphia, Kansas City - Business Insider

Not sure what that statement is trying to convey, but you're welcome to have my doses, and use them anyway you see fit. I've had a decent share of vaccines, though doubtful if I've had more than yourself, but I do have at least one scare to prove it, if you're into that kind of show and tell game.

If in the future I feel the need to have a "seasonal", or take some other new fandangled precaution outside of my normal regiment of natural antivirals and casual exposure, I'll be sure to weigh the pros and cons of such before jumping in blindly. My immune system is fairly decent, and only once have I had a debilitating virus that took me for a time warp, and it wasn't fun, and I now know why someone would choose the "seasonal cocktail" every year or other year, or might die from it, or wish they could die because of it, and it was like that.

Would I take an annual shot to combat a contagion, not at this time, but things can always change and people to, well some do.

Must be "fake news" or an opinion piece, and will now be removed as it doesn't appear to be referenced, or sourced for that matter.

Those "fact" and "check" sites can be useful, and I've used a few before, and like many if not all of the mainstream real/fake news sites, they are in it to make money. Most are hit or miss, or not fully convincing with their research, especially the political stuff. Not trying to completely discount such resources, and my limited bias on their perceived biases may be real or just another subjective validation.

PolitiFact could have an economic bias by being operated as part of a larger publishing empire who does random stuff like :

Fake news blacklist
In 2019, Poynter used various "fake news" databases (including those curated by the Annenberg Public Policy Center, Merrimack College, PolitiFact, and Snopes) to compile a list of over 515 news websites that it labeled "unreliable." Poynter called on advertisers to "blacklist" the sites on the list. The list included conservative news websites such as the Washington Examiner, The Washington Free Beacon, and The Daily Signal. After backlash, Poynter retracted the list, citing "weaknesses in the methodology."[13] Poynter issued a statement, saying: "We regret that we failed to ensure that the data was rigorous before publication, and apologize for the confusion and agitation caused by its publication."[14]
​

Africa Check (has some decent funding sources) : Like many of these types of sites, it looks like good detailed research work overall, and includes input/research from the public. There could be bias on that piece, given that Bill and Melinda are major donors.

Snopes : Given that much of their income comes from online advertising, many might say they aren't the best at promoting the truth.

 

I found the FDA letter approving a coronavirus, antibody test: https://www.fda.gov/media/136622/download

James X. Li, Ph.D.
Chief Executive Officer,
76 TW Alexander Drive
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 US
Device: Company: Indication:
Authorized Laboratories:
Dear Dr. Li:
. . . .
qSARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgM Rapid Test Cellex Inc.
Qualitative detection of IgM and IgG antibodies against SARS- CoV-2 in serum, plasma (EDTA or citrate), or venipuncture whole blood from individuals suspected of COVID-19 by their healthcare provider. Emergency use of this test is limited to authorized laboratories.
Laboratories certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments of 1988 (CLIA), 42 U.S.C. 263a, to perform moderate and high complexity tests.
. . .
To use your product, the device cassette, specimen, and buffer solution are allowed to equilibrate to room temperature. Specimen (10 μL) is transferred to the center of the sample well. After the sample well is free of liquid, two drops of Sample Diluent are then added to the sample well. Wait for fifteen to twenty minutes and read the test results. Results are not to be read after twenty minutes. An IgM Positive Result occurs when a colored band appears at both the M Test Line (M) and Control Line (C) and indicates that IgM against SARS-CoV-2 is present. An IgG Positive Result occurs when a colored band appears at both the G Test Line (G) and Control Line (C) and indicates that IgG against SARS-CoV-2 is present. A positive result for IgM and IgG occurs when colored bands occur at both M and G as well as at C. A Negative Result occurs when a colored band appears at C only and indicates that IgM and IgG antibodies against SARS- CoV-2 were not detected. An Invalid Result occurs when no colored band occurs at C and the test should be repeated.​

I understand there are other companies doing parallel work and at least one import from China. Production is not trivial but without losing quality, time to work on quantity. A failing test is worse than no test at all because it gives a false report.

Bob Wilson

ps.

Now you know. Fred's House of Politics awaits your opinions. This is the 'big boy' thread discussing the science and technology. Heck, we even tolerate @bisco <GRINS>.