SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

we may all become vegans

 

cdc now recommends public wear cloth masks in public. duh

 

I drew a smile on my paper, painter's mask.

My plan is mount it on a piece of plywood and epoxy the outside make it into a mould. Then I'll cover with gauze and layer it over the mould. Then I'll use a flexible adhesive, silicon glue, around the edge. Once the silicon glue sets, pop the new mask off and do the next layup.

Bob Wilson

 

As masks go, that one should be a chick magnet.

 

I'll ask my wife.

Bob Wilson

 

We do have many CAFOs (confined animal feeding operations) that could play the same role as wet markets are sources of epidemics.

How industrial hog farms can influence human flu epidemics

https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/ehs/docs/understanding_cafos_nalboh.pdf

An U.S.-born pandemic would likely come from one of these CAFOs.

 

Seems to make sense. Yet there is something that makes me uneasy.

There are others in this thread who know more immunology than I, and might show where I'm wrong. I would like to be wrong.

Seems this is a novel virus that my immune system has little pre-existing reason to react to. So say I get a certain initial load some day, whether from touching a surface, aerosol, droplets, whatever. There are some viruses in that initial load. They find some airway cells they can enter, and set about getting themselves replicated. My immune system is still thinking about badgers or NATO or whatever it thinks about when it isn't on the case. I'm happy and not experiencing any of the symptoms of an immune reaction, because I'm not having an immune reaction.

I'm just making lots and lots of coronaviruses.

The little buggers have a bunch of tricks for sneaking past my immune system, but at some point, after maybe several days of this, a twig gets stepped on. There's my immune system still thinking "badgers ... are they mean to people? hey wait, what was that thing? hmm, look, there's another one. Huh, weird. And over there, aren't those a few more? Or a few million more? Holy mackerel, guys, these things got everywhere before we started counting!"

At which point, the only defense left is scorched-earth, with the symptoms to match.

So my uneasy feeling is that viral loading may indeed be a predictor of how things are going to turn out, but if it's viral loading at the time symptoms come on, it won't be so much about how many viruses initially entered some days ago, as how many I've unknowingly manufactured in the meantime. Doesn't seem very comforting.

*Gets up to go wash hands again, just because.*

 

I am praying that God would lift this pestilence from the world completely on Easter Sunday in such a way that nobody could deny His hand in the matter and He would get all the glory. It would be awesome if it happen prior to that but as things are going/predicted that would be soon. Anyone with me?

 

Also Hantavirus, Lyme's disease, Rocky Mountain spotted fever

Antibodies are a defense mechanism of the immune system. They latch onto foreign proteins in the body, say from a virus or bacteria, making it easier for the rest of the immune system to identify the foreign bits, and get rid of it. For antibody testing, we expose some farm animal to whatever bug we want to test for, and then collect the antibodies from their blood. The antibodies are attached to microscopic beads. When mixed in a sample from patient that is infected with that target bug, the antibodies latch on to any present protein, causing the beads to clump up into a visible slurry.

PCR is a technique for magnifying genetic material in a sample. You need to know what the genetic sample you are looking is first, but when you do, you make what are called primers. These are short bits of genetic material that match up with the start and end of the material strand you are looking for. They work with the enzymes cells use for copying their DNA and making RNA. For PCR, a mixture is made of the primers, enzymes, and the basic building blocks for the genetic material. To that, the sample is added, and the whole thing is gently heated.

If the material you are looking for is present in the sample, the primers attach to it, and the enzymes get to work copying it; making millions of copies. Which gives you lots of it to do whatever it is you wanted it for. In the case of just testing for the presence of a virus, a basic gel electrophoresis should be enough to show if the PCR reaction made the virus DNA or RNA you were looking for. The gel is made from agar, which is like gelatin but made from seaweed. The PCR sample and a control are placed at on end of the gel, and then an electric current is run through the gel. The current carries the genetic material through the gel, with smaller pieces moving faster than bigger ones. The control is a known mix of different sizes, and you know how big the virus material is, so you know where it will be in the gel in relation to the control. If it is there when the picture of the gel is taken, that virus material was present in the patient sample.

Nor button batteries.

your immune system needs to think about something like badgers. Otherwise, it gets bored and starts picking on your organs and tissues.

 

I've yet to chime in, but this is a number that just blows me away. Thought I'd post. Of course, it's going by known cases. But even then, I mean wow. My odds of winning the Powerball are probably better. I'm still 'meh' on the whole thing. But I admit, I'm like that with most things.

0.84343769% = Percentage of US population with the virus.

0.0141515498% = Percentage of people in the World who have the virus.

 

My local grocery store sells common panel filters for home HVAC systems, and they are also available in the bigbox home improvement stores coast-to-coast.

For those unfamiliar, these are relatively large panels of filter media unitized in disposable cardboard mounting frames. This being an automotive forum, your cabin air filter is a small version of what I'm describing. The big ones can be a meter on a side.

Anyway, I mention these because they are highly available, they've already been widely distributed, they don't cost a lot, they're large enough that each one can be cut up into many portions suitable for a face-worn mask.

The bits I don't know: is this filter media actually good enough? I know that some of these panels are HEPA rated for hospital use, but this is not my field of expertise. I don't know what considerations are needed in adapting that filter media for personal use.

After that, I think this is mostly the "Apollo 13" problem: make a filter meant for X fit an air system shaped like Y. And communicate the manufacturing instructions effectively, since these need to be made more or less everywhere at once.

 

A little easier to read:

	Deaths per cases (%)	Country
1	0.7	Germany
2	0.9	China outside Hubei
3	1.2	S Korea
4	1.8	Switzerland
5	2.1	Australia
6	3.7	USA
7	4.5	Hubei China
8	5.2	UK
9	5.6	Netherlands
10	5.9	France
11	7.3	Spain
12	11.2	Italy

They cover a very wide range. Many more could be added from WHO sitreps but each would take time.

This analysis is less meaningful because reporting of cases and deaths varies across countries. It seems to say that countries vary, in susceptible populations and medical-response capability.

I suppose people want to have a global fatality rate for this bad boy. Assume no large reporting errors, add more countries, weigh data by populations, and it can be said. Until that is done, I suppose it is between 3 and 4%.
==
We might be approaching knowing how this will totally play out, except that some countries (Russia, Iran, add China if you wish) might not be fully disclosing data. India, Africa and S America might take flight.
I suppose there are two steps. First make each country's medical responses strong. Second, plan how to transfer medical capability to later getters after early storm passes. That has never been done before. It won't be done perfectly this time. This is our practice round, a friendly match, before a really bad boy arrives.​

Thanks,
Bob Wilson

 

SPECULATION:
I wonder if today's COVID-19 critical areas can become exporters of anti-body plasma for the critically ill?

YES, those areas need respirators today but those saved can become plasma donors for the rest of the nation. For example, today, Johns Hopkins list 9,897 recovered.

As plasma donors, they may save an equal number of critically ill COVID-19. Refreshment of antibodies will need a quantitative test which might be done by testing the dilution of an existing antibody test. I'm not an expert in how antibodies are generated after recovery from an infection.

Bob Wilson