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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Or false negatives from the test.
     
    #1161 Trollbait, Mar 28, 2020
  2. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace 2025 Camry XLE FWD

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    upload_2020-3-28_20-18-13.png
     
    #1162 Prodigyplace, Mar 28, 2020
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  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Face mask leaks
     
    #1163 tochatihu, Mar 28, 2020
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  4. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Senior Member

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    Nothing that a little more duct tape can't solve :whistle:
     
    #1164 ILuvMyPriusToo, Mar 28, 2020
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  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    or superglue.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1165 bwilson4web, Mar 28, 2020
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    looks like my rear bumper
     
    #1166 bisco, Mar 28, 2020
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  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I absolutely do not want to talk about your rear bumper.
     
    #1167 tochatihu, Mar 28, 2020
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  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i promise not to post a pic
     
    #1168 bisco, Mar 28, 2020
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  9. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    You posted it once;).

    Why not again:whistle:?

    I bet some of your finest handy work(y).
     
    #1169 Raytheeagle, Mar 28, 2020
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  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Switzerland has been identified as past peak of new daily cases by Gompertz model
    COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People

    This does not mean 'it's over' it means that new daily case counts are expected to decrease. Tat model further predicts final total cases will be >35 thousand. With < 9 million Swiss that is a high incidence.

    Hubei Province of China was early and fast. It has <68 thousand cases and population of 59 million. That is lower incidence.

    ==
    Italy will be past peak soon we hope.
    S. Korea, Luxembourg, Norway and Brazil already are and others may be, at elm.nsupdate
     
    #1170 tochatihu, Mar 28, 2020
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    dr. dfauci says, 'i'd bet the ranch that people who have had it will be immune'
     
    #1171 bisco, Mar 28, 2020
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    On that note,

    Coronavirus Dashboard

    lists number of recovered. There are now more such people outside China than within.
     
    #1172 tochatihu, Mar 28, 2020
  13. RobH

    RobH Senior Member

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    A Swiss Doctor on Covid-19 &#8211; Swiss Propaganda Research

    A few excerpts from the Swiss post:

    Everybody take a deep breath.
     
    #1173 RobH, Mar 28, 2020
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    link @1173 mentions Sweden as having less restrictive policies (isolation only of elders and symptomatics). As that country is (Gompertz) scheduled to peak very soon, it may yield interesting comparisons with others with more restrictive policies.
     
    #1174 tochatihu, Mar 28, 2020
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  15. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    So far, San Marino has lost 0.065% of its entire population to this outbreak. Small population though.

    Italy, 0.0166%.
     
    #1175 fuzzy1, Mar 28, 2020
  16. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    We're beginning to get a better glimpse at the magnitude of asymptomatic +SARS-CoV-2 cases.

    Statistically significant data has been very limited to this point, but now a picture is starting to emerge via Iceland. Iceland has a population of ~360,000 and has been testing >25,000 tests per million (highest proportion in the world).

    Iceland is now sampling asymptomatic people in Reykjavik (does not count mild cold symptoms). 0.84% of these tests have come back positive (52 of 6163) - see link below. That compares to 0.25% of the population who have tested positive.

    We will need to repeat this study in other countries, but this lends further support to the "tip of the iceberg" theory that a very large percent of +SARS-CoV-2 go uncounted almost everywhere. Many implications follow from this.



    Google translated from Norwegian:
    Google Translate
     
    #1176 iplug, Mar 29, 2020
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  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I'm not fond of percentages and found this in the article:

    Since deCODE began testing on March 13, 6,163 Icelanders without coronary symptoms have been studied.
    52 of the samples were found to be positive for Covid-19.    ​

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1177 bwilson4web, Mar 29, 2020
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    dr. fauci tells cnn's jake tapper, 'i expect millions of cases in the u.s., and between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths based on models, but don't hold me to it'.
     
    #1178 bisco, Mar 29, 2020
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  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Gompertz model for US currently calls for ~1.9 million cases in total. Based on daily data up to now. If social interaction policies change in either direction, number will change. If testing identifies asymptomatic cases, it will go up (with the benefit that their social interactions will go down).

    Fatality rates are still variable across regions. Worst in Italy, above 10%. Lowest in Germany ~1%. Calculated in the same way, US currently fatality rate is 3.8%.
     
    #1179 tochatihu, Mar 29, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
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  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i wonder if dna plays a part.

    npr: 'authorities in wuhan still not sure if asymptomatic people are contagious'
     
    #1180 bisco, Mar 29, 2020
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