SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Jair Bolsonaro, on the other hand, "would feel nothing," because of his "history as an athlete".

    At least we know he'll be ok.
     
    #1121 ChapmanF, Mar 26, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #1122 tochatihu, Mar 26, 2020
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    The elm website (Gompertz) predictions of turning point by country are new (to me).

    USA readers can see

    https://elm.nsupdate.info/virus/infectionsbycountry-15.png

    Which presently predicts turning point around day 96. That being April 5 and one week before Easter.

    It also includes on the Italy graph 6200 new cases, which @fuzzy1 posted @1109. That will be on tomorrow's sitrep 67 I suppose
     
    #1123 tochatihu, Mar 26, 2020
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  4. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Re: post #1119:

    One qualm here to otherwise nice paper - the model assumes the proportion of the population to be asymptomatic at only 7.5%. Other studies suggest it is likely multiples of that. Would submit a higher asymptomatic percent may be why South Korea has put out the forest fire but continues to have burning embers that can't seem to be quite extinguished. And these can't seem to be explained away largely by backwash imports.

    Would not say this changes the conclusion in a substantial way.

    Thoughts?
     
    #1124 iplug, Mar 26, 2020
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Wherever testing has included many asymptomatic people, that proportion could be determined.

    That infection pathway seems to have contributed a lot to this virus' success so far. So it is a very good thing to know about.

    Countries that (so far) exclude asymptomatic people from testing would not contribute to that knowledge.

    Final thought, I can't get Lancet home page to open right now, but I assume they publish 'letters to the editor'. @iplug might consider writing one.
     
    #1125 tochatihu, Mar 26, 2020
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  6. noonm

    noonm Senior Member

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    Those Gompertz curve fits seem very sensitive. Here's the US curve one day later (Mar 27th rather than Mar 26th)
    https://elm.nsupdate.info/virus/infectionsbycountry-243.png

    Peak is now at day 103, i.e. April 12th, Easter. :eek:

    It also doesn't appear to be a "flattening the curve" situation as both the peak and total infected have nearly doubled.
     
    #1126 noonm, Mar 26, 2020
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  7. GasperG

    GasperG Senior Member

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    Death tool always comes at a delay, infection doesn't kill you instantly, this illness is a long process, that can last over a month.

    It depends where will Italy go, but US will catch today's Italy death numbers in a week or two.
     
    #1127 GasperG, Mar 27, 2020
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Flattening the curve is represented by news media as slowing the arrival of needful cases to hospitals that are resource limited. That benefit could not be argued against.

    Flattening the curve in terms of new-case presentation has only been shown by qualitative graphics, AFAICT. Not a news-media failing, but rather that we have very few 'peak and post-peak' examples to look at, so far.

    In two weeks there will be more regional examples. Then we can talk about new-case-rate dynamics, before and after inflection points. A flattened curve should be more gentle on both up and down sides, and country or regional data ought to allow some discrimination there. Some statistical testing. Some math.

    Based on current data, I could not point to any that have flattened their curves. With hopes that some appear later, how they managed to do it will be a matter of great interest.
     
    #1128 tochatihu, Mar 27, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
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  9. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    #1129 fuzzy1, Mar 27, 2020
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  10. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    #1130 iplug, Mar 27, 2020
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  11. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    other varibles;
    1 - country w/ highest % of elderly
    2 - county w/ highest level med care
    3 - country w/ highest population density
    4 - country w/ highest level remedial measures
    (sanatary precautions / social distancing / awareness)
     
    #1131 hill, Mar 27, 2020
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  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    country with highest smoking weight

    obesity?
     
    #1132 bisco, Mar 27, 2020
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    two months lost, gonna have to reread this thread :unsure:
     
    #1133 bisco, Mar 27, 2020
  14. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    #1134 ETC(SS), Mar 27, 2020
  15. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    If you mean total deaths, then I'd say not that soon under the current pattern. Right now, they have 6X the total deaths of us, and a daily death rate that is still growing and sticking to a ratio close to 4X ours.

    To overtake Italy in a week, their death growth rate would have to halt today, and ours would have to leap from 250-ish now to an average of 2000 daily deaths.

    If you mean that we'd overtake Italy in just daily deaths, I won't dismiss that idea. While it seems a bit of a stretch, it isn't beyond reach.

    ====================

    The U.S. has now exceeded 100,000 cases (not deaths).
     
    #1135 fuzzy1, Mar 27, 2020
  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    is it a competition? i might take one for the team:cool:
     
    #1136 bisco, Mar 27, 2020
  17. noonm

    noonm Senior Member

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    UW Medicine just came out with COVID-19 projections for the U.S. and by state:
    COVID-19

    Current U.S. project is the peak new cases (i.e. inflection point) on April 14th, with an estimated total deaths of ~81,000 (range ~38,000-~162,000) by August.

    They also include current shortage estimates of:
    - Hospital Beds = ~49,000 more needed
    - ICU Beds = ~14,500 more needed
    - Ventilators = ~18,750 more needed

    They qualify their projections with this statement:
     
    #1137 noonm, Mar 27, 2020
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  18. dig4dirt

    dig4dirt MoonGlow

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    screenshot'd that link
     
    #1138 dig4dirt, Mar 27, 2020
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #1139 tochatihu, Mar 27, 2020
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Very impressive @1137. I have every confidence that people who will actually be deciding about Texas, midwest and farm-belt states 're-opening' will consider this at the state level.
     
    #1140 tochatihu, Mar 27, 2020
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