SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

ma: cases = 1,840, up from 1,160. largest daily increase so far

deaths = 15, up from 11.

tests = 20,000, up from 13,700

hospitalized: 5.6%, down from 8%. of course, based on the number of cases, that is actually about the same number of people

i'm starting to think what we're seeing is mostly people who were already infected before the sah recommendation, gatherings of more than 10 and closing of non essential businesses.

a lot of hospital employees are testing positive, that's not a good thing.

 

I appreciate the effort. I suspect it has already been processed and the results shared.

Bob Wilson

 

Perhaps our local squid, @ETC(SS), might explain why or how Naval combat ships avoid the medical problems seen on cruise ships?

My concern are the Marine recruit depots: Paris Island and San Diego. Large numbers of civilians showing up, often for their first qualified medical screening and treatments. Actually any recruit training centers are at risk.

Bob Wilson

 

Thanks. Some of those researcher's explanations are worse than acronyms flowing out of a NASA engineer's mouth during a coworker tailgate discussion. (present company excluded) kidding.

It's pretty thick stuff to read through, but interesting. A lot of the work units are very time sensitive and have a short turnaround time.

PS, I started crunching for SETI May 20, 1999 and only recently stopped. The public part of that project sunsets March 31st and they're directing everyone to the COVID-19 projects.

 

No problem. I remember going through the rocket range, safety training at Marshall Space Flight Center to get a badge with a special symbol. Then I noticed who did not have the marker and sure enough, it matched my expectations of which side of the 'bell curve' they were on. You don't send the dummies to places that can explode.

Bob Wilson

 

As COVID-19 spreads across fleet, Navy stops identifying ships with positive cases

As with everything else in life, there are people out on the sharp end, and those who are playing catch-up.....
El Fato gets a vote.
So does the enemy.....

I'm hearing that some ships did what we call a "fast cruise" fairly early on, which means that even though the ship is tied 'fast' to the pier they set an underway watch and nobody goes on or off.
Some ships at sea....stayed there.
At least one ship's last port of call was in a country that rhymes with Norea....and there may or may not have been an infected person who departed the boat from that location.
So....it's a mixed bag.

When you're living elbow-to a**hole with hundreds of your closest friends in a mostly self-contained environment, it's a run-what-you brung thing. Ships that are bug-free, at sea will stay that way.
Those that are not will probably stay that way too....for a while.
You can do 'some things' on a ship to keep infected folks from sharing the fun and for this cohort it will be more effective since we're dealing with much younger and somewhat fitter specimens....whose isolation can be enforced much more rigorously than civies.
One may expect menus to change drastically.
Head facilities (restrooms, showers, laundry) will have to undergo a mode change since they're already sparse and spartan on any Navy wessel....but they ARE universally made from materials that lend themselves to 'enhanced cleaning' methods.

Expect to hear sea stories of 'water hours' and 'yellow bombs.'

More so for my beloved 'silent service' since underway replenishment is a MUCH more rarefied thing.
It will be very fascinating to see if there were any boats that got under way....say a month ago with an infected squid in the 'people tank' but for now they're being......'silent.'

 

Regarding hopes on a cure for the common (coronavirus) cold or vaccination, consider the following:

There are 7 known coronaviruses that can infect people. 4 of these (human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1) cause about 20% of common colds and everyone on earth has been exposed to/infected with these since childhood with ~100% of the world population having antibodies to prove it. We get reinfected with these over our lifetimes.

The other 3 human coronaviruses MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) cause substantially more severe disease, for reasons that are not very clear. One of many possibilities is that the human population was never exposed to them prior, including during childhood. Unfortunately little is known about the possibility of reinfection with these, although the former two no longer appear to be circulating.

All viruses from which people recover produce a significant period of immunity, some as little as 1-2 years and some lifelong, depending on the virus. The “common cold” coronaviruses unfortunately are on the shortest arm of this spectrum. It seems with coronaviruses, antibody levels decline more rapidly than with others and we are not sure they are as protective as they are with most other viruses.

Because SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is a coronavirus, there is a very high level of reason to believe those who recover from infection achieve some minimum window of immunity. If re-exposure occurs in the future, although preexisting antibodies do not necessarily preclude infectious symptoms, there is good reason to believe one would likely have substantially less severe symptoms.

Unlike influenza, coronaviruses mutate much more slowly than influenza, so on this front there is hope a potential vaccination would maintain effectiveness to the disease over years to decades, although may require frequent boosters as below.

As a coronavirus, those recovered from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) will very likely have a period of immunity, but what is unclear is how long that immunity might last. This might be only 1-2 years, but it could be substantially longer as the more lethal SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infections no longer seem to be circulating.

When it comes to vaccination, we can surmise a decent amount regarding the potential for vaccine development. Like other viral infections for which there is a vaccine, one for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) should mirror the natural immune response for this virus. Thus if immunity for those formerly infected only lasts a few years, we should expect no better for a vaccine.

If SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) ultimately acts like the typical 4 circulating “common cold” strains, infection or vaccination from it might be expected to result in substantially less severe symptoms with a following infection. As such, yearly booster vaccinations might hold promise.

 

Mandated inoculations anyone?

 

italy - one of the most densely populated European countries .... per km² over 500 peeps. iirc - their population is only 19% of the United States. So per capita, looking at the actual numbers for what they mean, the USA - especially looking at the flattening curve, is doing great - right?

do Submariners still hot bunk?
.

 

Source: https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30229-4.pdf

SARS-CoV-2 Cell Entry Depends on ACE2 and TMPRSS2 and Is Blocked by a Clinically Proven Protease Inhibitor​

I saw this on MSNBC last night and it appears to be an approach with promise.

Bob Wilson

 

No more or less than measles.

Bob Wilson

 

what is pneumonia, and why is the shot only every 5 years?

 

i wonder if this will have any effect on city planners, who have been on a mission to cram as much housing as possible per square foot.

 

I got a (first) pneumo shot at 65, while getting flu shot, and they said I'd be due again in 5 years (70). However, last fall (at age 69) when I was getting flu shot I mentioned the 5 year interval for pneumo, and they said they're thinking now you're good for life after that first shot. Or they're just cheaping out?

 

Yep!
Sometimes.
The 688s and early 774s (LA and Virginias) have less than 100 bunks, and more than 100 squids, sometimes as much as 130.

When there are riders (Squadron weenies, spec-ops, newsies, etc...) you'll sometimes have to share your rack with a rider even on the more commodious boats (Ohio class and maybe a stretch Seawolf or a Block 'V' Virginia when completed. )

You can only fit so many taters in a 5 pound bag.....


Below is a photo of the torpedo room (sometimes....just 'The Room) on my beloved home state's namesake, the USS Indiana - SSN789.
Extra riders or junior crew can sometimes sleep outside of normal bunking areas, but when you're carrying a full load of weaps and a 110-day stores load out then ad-hock bunking becomes a little harder to do.

Photos are funny things.
These boats are only 377' long and about 34' wide.......on the OUTSIDE.
They're fairly tight on the inside.

The covers on those foam pads are called "CPO spreads" and have a distinctive corrugated texture. They lead to distinctive "rack burns" on the face and neck which is probably one reason that the sleepers are in cocoon mode, since very tired sailors can sleep regardless of lighting and noise.
Another reason is probably that they're not private bunks and you take your sheets with you when you're bounced out of your rack to go on watch, and the next sailor uses the space.

 

idk. i got my first one five years ago, and another one this past january. no talk of skipping it, not sure what's going on.
on another note, we got our first of two shingrix shots in january, and were supposed to get the second now. we had to cancel, and only have until june, or it won't work.

 

I plowed through Submarine by Tom Clancy. That's a tome of a textbook on subs, some history, then a deep-dive (no pun intended) on the current nuclear subs. Good read. The last chapter you can skip, pretty much just a catalogue of what's currently afloat IIRC.

 

live science: current u.s. influenza data: 38 million cases, 390,000 hospitalizations, 23,000 deaths

dr. fauci: 'the only real difference is the certainty of seasonal flu, and the uncertainties of the novel coronavirus'

 

Other than the higher mortality rate of COVID-19 and it's not seasonal...

Pixel XL ?

 

and both of those are mostly unknown as well