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SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. George W

    George W Senior Member

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    Member of the Utah Jazz tested positive. Gives a new meaning to March Madness.
     
    #681 George W, Mar 11, 2020
  2. George W

    George W Senior Member

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    What do you think about this line of reasoning?

    Simple math offers alarming answers about Covid-19, health care - STAT
     
    #682 George W, Mar 12, 2020
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Thanks for asking. First it is based on extrapolation of US diagnosed-case data and frankly I have no confidence that number is now 1000 or whatever (I mean whatever within reason). Second, my opinion is that US case numbers will grow a lot within two months. This agrees with statnews. Problem is that any model based upon early data gives a huge range of outcomes. Data points of now have way too much leverage.

    I have been following Gompertz models on elm.nsupdate.info since Feb 26. Over that time, world outside China cases predictions rose from 6 million to peak at 536 million and then fell to below 3 million. Then they basically stopped doing it.

    So, what is the answer (for US)? get real case-number data somehow. Its daily growth rate will increase but then hit an inflection point. That happened in China Feb 5. After the daily change stabilizes (less new cases each day), there are many ways of math to anticipate a final total.

    Until you hit the inflection point, none of them will be credible.

    How numbers change on the ground depend a lot on interpersonal contact controls, just as statnews says. Get aggressive and hit the inflection point sooner.

    ==
    How about this? Hubei Province was where the you-know-what hit the fan. The fan was subsequently left switched on for some time. I suppose that's is about as bad as it can get. One person per thousand in that Province got 'Crowned'. US population 333 million, so my upper limit superwild US guess is 333 thousand. Don't quote me - I'll just say my account here was hijacked.

    Anybody whose estimate is above that is smoking better stuff than I :)
     
    #683 tochatihu, Mar 12, 2020
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    As far as how many hospital beds will be needed? Or mechanical ventilators? The answer is actually much simpler. More than you got available.
     
    #684 tochatihu, Mar 12, 2020
  5. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace 2025 Camry XLE FWD

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    Speaking of which, March Madness will go on but with no fans attending the basketball games.
     
    #685 Prodigyplace, Mar 12, 2020
  6. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    Does the WHO's calling of 'pandemic' actually mean anything? Life insurance policies now available to be used as toilet paper etc?
     
    #686 Leadfoot J. McCoalroller, Mar 12, 2020
  7. GasperG

    GasperG Senior Member

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    There already was pandemic in 2009, because of H1N1 (Swine flu), I don't think anyone remembers that.

    How is testing in the US? I live in a country of 2 milion people, we tested 2200 and have 57 positive cases, no deaths. First case was 8 days ago. Even here they don't test everyone that want's to be tested, you have to have certain symptoms, travel history or known infected contact.
     
    #687 GasperG, Mar 12, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2020
    Merkey and tochatihu like this.
  8. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace 2025 Camry XLE FWD

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    I do. My wife has had chronic migraines since that time. A good day is just having a headache.

    They suspect some brain damage from H1N1. She was teaching severely disabled students at that time. She has not worked outside the home since.
     
    #688 Prodigyplace, Mar 12, 2020
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    CDC pulled the trigger a while ago

    Who didn’t want to use the word, now they’re blaming countries for not acting fast enough
     
    #689 bisco, Mar 12, 2020
  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Terrible. First we didn’t have any kits, then the kits were defective, now the labs don’t have enough supplies.
     
    #690 bisco, Mar 12, 2020
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    And there won’t be anymore, most of the medical community here is still in denial
     
    #691 bisco, Mar 12, 2020
  12. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    A week left to put tents up in the hospital parking lots and line up the cots.

    A significant difference between what happened in China, what's happening now in Italy, and what will happen in the USA is automobiles.

    We own more cars and drive much more than the chinese or the italians. Lots of sick people trying to get to crowded hospitals or drive-thru triage centers.

    I wonder if the South Koreans have any lessons to offer on traffic management? They've got some car culture.
     
    #692 Leadfoot J. McCoalroller, Mar 12, 2020
  13. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Can happen with any high fever.

    All because someone didn't want to use the cheaper German kits the rest of the world uses.
     
    #693 Trollbait, Mar 12, 2020
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  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    “Boston the next Italy” :eek:

    Heading there tomorrow (n)
     
    #694 bisco, Mar 12, 2020
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Going by another Boston related headline, you might spend enough time in traffic to limit social contact.
     
    #695 Trollbait, Mar 12, 2020
  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Better stock the car!

    Can always u turn I suppose
     
    #696 bisco, Mar 12, 2020
  17. George W

    George W Senior Member

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    Book that room with Hotel Prius!
     
    #697 George W, Mar 12, 2020
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Dr fauci says, ‘testing has been a complete failing’
     
    #698 bisco, Mar 12, 2020
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    Inspector trudeau and wife enter isolation
     
    #699 bisco, Mar 12, 2020
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    NHL suspends season
     
    #700 bisco, Mar 12, 2020
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