SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

doctors in spain successfully treat patient with hiv drug

 

Interesting calculation theory for #510 on South Korea, but do not subscribe to that here.

Regarding today's case number perhaps not necessarily being the correct number to divide by and instead going by an earlier day's total:

Indeed this thing takes some time to kill, but it’s hard to presume that case numbers in South Korea over-represent early infections. Most of the problem worldwide to this point is that we are biased by over-selection diagnosis of the most serious cases early, including death and also detecting cases later rather than earlier. I see this being done egregiously in clinical practice in real time in my area of Northern California and there is strong evidence this is happening in a similar way in most other places in the world at this time.

Happy to go where the data goes either way. If South Korea mortality rate climbs in weeks by reported math, so it does, but that’s not how the tea leaves look from here. Agree, we won’t have accurate numbers for quite some time and only in retrospect.

 

Data is meaningless in the fight. It is what it is.
I read that there are two virii, the initial one, and one that developed in humans.
The second being more deadly.

Still no significant testing being done here yet, which is allowing community spread to go unchecked.

 

I realize that this is probably not the best solution.
You might try going to a vet and getting one of those dog cones, extra large.

Mike

 

not diminishing any viral sickness / fatalities ... and ....
Having stayed out of this potential brouhaha, doesn't this flu strain necessarily beg the question - in relation to old fashioned flu, (weather it's resulting in illness, recovery, death) ... isn't this strain a small fraction of what winter flu(s) typically brings? And even if this new strain is shown to be as much as ¼ of all 'typical' contracted flu cases (over which 10's of thousands typically have already have died by this late in the year) why isn't regular flu even more branded as potentially an existential threat to humanity -
This strain is reminding me of electric car battery fires. The media plays it up, then you look at the stats and see how much higher the ratio is for gas cars and one begins to realize that gas car fires are so ubiquitous nobody even notices. So, yeah, seems like we should really be noticing good old-fashioned flu. Low-hanging fruit.
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The Flu seems to have a shorter contagious period.

 

1) we have a lot of historical knowledge with seasonal flu

2) we have flu shots

3) the unknowns of covid-19 are worse than the knowns

4) covid-19 is almost a death sentence for seniors and those with underlying health conditions

5) we don’t know incubation periods, community spread rates or potential

6) we don’t know how many strains there are

7) we don’t know how deadly they are

8) we don’t know when someone is completely cured, or when they are no longer contagious

9) we do know that it spread thru the hvac system of cruise ships which is not a big issue with seasonal flu

10) we don’t know how it might spread in large gatherings like sports, concerts, rallies and etc


11) we don’t have enough test kits to find out who has it and who doesn’t

12) cdc is obviously completely unprepared for an epidemic

13) who is obviously completely unprepared for a pandemic

14) other than those and whatever I missed, it’s no problem

 

South by Southwest cancelled in Austin.

 

for anyone interested and has 20 minutes, there is a brilliant epidemiologist (ceo for epidemic preparedness innovations dr. richard hatchett) being interviewed on youtube: coronavirus expert: 'war is an appropriate analogy'

 

And yet not even 50% of people bother to get a flu shot. If we got to 70-80% the herd immunity would crush it and maybe 10x (my swag) fewer people would get it and die. But no one seems to care much about this. I would say it is Darwin at work, but it is mostly older people who die.

See above

We fear the unknown because it must be terrible...thank you Hollywood movies

I think the number is about 10% or maybe 14% depending on the date and country you get the data from.
Harsh as it probably sounds but many of these are "straw" illnesses. i.e. the straw that broke the camel's back.
At 80+ my mom got the flu and pneumonia, never really recovered and died ~2 yrs later.

Two: S-type and L-type

Highly quoted number is ~2% across all ages. But this number is high due to many infected, untested and have no symptoms.
In South Korea after widespread testing of 100K it is about 0.6%.
But this number is low due to some positive test results for people that have yet to die.
Does it matter if the real number is 1% or 1.2%. Would we change our behavior?

A hoax system?


Mike

 

1st confirmed case in Minnesota (in the county I live in no less).
Patient was on a cruise, developed symptoms on February 25th (at home after the cruise). He sought medical attention yesterday (March 5th).
County medical personnel are currently working to contact anyone he was in close contact with.
Patient is now in isolation at home.

 

flu virus morphs e/ year, requiring new / similarly-morphed vaccines every year. Seldom is it there is only one strain as well, e/new flu season - and often that's why people get pissed off because they get a shot and they still get the flu, & then believe the shot gave them the flu, when in fact it was just a different strain. Then there's the whole FDA "exception" thing. Think about it. So many years are required to bring a drug to market? Yet a new vaccine for flu every year? It's pretty evident a whole lot less testing can Happen with the flu du jour. Is it any Wonder folks are suspicious of such vaccines? Who can imagine how many drug interactions are not tested on a vaccine that has to be ready "now". Yet every year, there it is.

 

thanks, fixed that

 

oh hill, please don't tell me you're an anti vaxer

 

Maybe it's just from being born via the generation that would hear live on the radio, "The only thing to fear is fear itself" .... but that fear began when bombs & death rained down on 1,000's in Hawaii as well as our enemy hell-bent on perfecting Rockets, jet fighters & bombers, & nukes. It meant Millions died, yet they were admonished to only fear "fear". Yet - now with so much fake news - it seems like the media 'may' be untrustworthy. My dad too - at nearly 97 is in the process of succumbing to his final season, that started as flu, which turned to pneumonia, which left weakness causing balance loss, that caused a fall & broken bones - which puts one back in the hospital, where you deal with another pneumonia bout. I haven't seen any solid research showing the new flu isn't killing the people most susceptible to any kind of flu, namely the aged & or weakened immune systems. That said, it may be worse - sure. But "maybe" also means maybe not. In any event, the media will get as much drama out of any issue that they can.
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Fear of the unknown has been a part of the human condition since the dawn of mankind.
It wasn’t created by the media, although the media certainly will use it to get ratings. It wasn’t created by man, it was created when the caveman that was afraid of the odd growling sound in brush watched his friend that wasn’t die when he went to investigate.

It was a survival mechanism, which may or may not serve us well anymore.

 

after daughter's friend had their kids multi-vaxed - like some other young parents experienced - their twin kids quickly developed aspergers. Personally? Haven't drank either side's Kool-Aid. Maybe that makes me a skepti-vaxer. since i got a shingles booster ... can we still be buds?

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if you don't watch the 20minute video referred to in post #531, you do a disservice to our country, and the world.
there is more solid information there, than anything published so far by anyone from who to the cdc to the government to the media.

no fear, just science