SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

'nasa images show decreased pollution over china with closed factories' - silver lining?

 

'cdc changing testing protocol with new supply of kits'

i expect to see a big jump

 

Just a couple days ago (data to 4 pm Thursday, unless updated later), the entire U.S. had officially performed only 472 tests of potential cases. Other countries were testing by the hundreds of thousands.

Now my state's health lab is ready to process 200 per day. And I hope other states and cities are similarly ramping up.

Our nursing home that announced 2 cases today, has 50+ residents and staff ill out of a population of 288. Not only could that lead to a huge jump in known cases once the tests are processed, think of all the family and friends who have visited in there recently, before such were closed today. A bunch for firefighters who were on recent calls to that facility are already under quarantine.

I'm actually away now, to babysit newborn calves on the family farm. Deeply rural, not visiting town most days. (Though if anyone attending the senior center lunches has it, dad is almost certain to pick it up and bring it back to me. ) But will be returning home very shortly, if the King-Snohomish county borders haven't been closed by then.

Maybe I should just stay at the farm longer?

 

How it unfolded: King County death first in U.S. linked to coronavirus | The Seattle Times

"

• 
  
• Two people connected to a Kirkland long-term care facility have tested positive, officials said Saturday afternoon. A resident in her 70s is in serious condition, and a health employee in her 40s is stable. The long-term facility in Kirkland has 108 residents and 180 employees, according to the CDC.
  
• At the Kirkland facility, 27 residents and 25 employees have symptoms."

See also:
Public Health - Seattle and King County press release
First death due to novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in a resident of King County

"

• In addition, over 50 individuals associated with LifeCare are reportedly ill with respiratory symptoms or hospitalized with pneumonia or other respiratory conditions of unknown cause and are being tested for COVID-19. Additional positive cases are expected.
• The death occurred in a patient at EvergreenHealth Hospital but was not a resident of the long-term care facility.

... The CDC is sending a team of epidemiologists to King County to support our efforts to identify, isolate and test all of those who may be at risk because of these new cases."

My own nursing home encounters span multiple stints going back almost a half century from last year. Walk-ins walk-outs very rarely recorded.

Same ST article:

"Redmond firefighters who responded to Kirkland facility quarantined

The city of Redmond has quarantined seven firefighters who responded to calls at the Life Care Center in Kirkland in the last week, according to Pattijean Hooper, emergency manager for the city of Redmond. It’s standard practice for organizations that share borders to support one another for calls, so these firefighters were supporting the Kirkland Fire Department.

One of the firefighters is quarantined in Redmond’s most rural fire station (which has been evacuated), Hooper said, and the rest are with their families."

Just joking on this one, I don't know something of this magnitude to have ever happened here.

 

Common knowledge isn't so common.

Wuhan went into lockdown a week before my birthday, on January 23rd. To say that the Corona virus was common knowledge to those inside Wuhan is plausible but most likely not for anywhere else.

Even the original post, by you, was post marked on the 26th of January; Three days after the lockdown.

One of my biggest concerns with our meeting with the reps from Wuhan was that the virus is asymptomatic. I can still see the dumbfounded look in my coworkers eyes, explaining what 'asymptomatic' meant let alone what was a Corona virus.

Common knowledge is not as common as you would think.

 

Google translate of Chinese website:

 

That was just Redmond's employees. An update shows the Kirkland has quarantined many more:

"Meanwhile, 25 Kirkland firefighters, two police officers and seven firefighters from nearby Redmond are being quarantined for two weeks as they had responded to the Kirkland facility for aid calls over the past several days. Some are self-quarantined at home and some are at Station 13, the most rural station in the district. Other firefighters not in quarantine have been moved away from Station 13. Kirkland fire officials say they are able to maintain full staffing levels at their fire stations."

 

Rhode Island’s first confirmed case a tourist returning from Italy

 

A USPS parcel facility worker has been confirmed in Washington State.
Local USPS employee tests positive for coronavirus

 

Two additional cases announced in King County Washington today, both men in their 60s with underlying health conditions, in critical condition, in different hospitals. The brings the county total to 6, or state total to 8.

No word yet on any test results of the additional 50+ nursing home residents and staff noted yesterday as suffering respiratory illnesses.

 

Found a credible source: COVID-19 | Radiology Reference Article | Radiopaedia.org

COVID-19 is a zoonotic illness caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus was previously known as 2019 novel coronavirus. The first cases were seen in the city of Wuhan, China in December 2019, and have been linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market 1,2,10. Person-to-person transmission occurs. The imaging findings are of pneumonia, often bilateral. No effective treatment or vaccine currently exists.
. . .
The mortality rate is about 2-3% 2,5 with currently 2990 confirmed deaths (1 March 2020) 5. This includes 109 confirmed deaths in ten territories outside mainland China, including 43 in Iran, 29 in Italy and 17 in South Korea 5.

In the largest study to date, a paper published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) analyzed all the cases diagnosed up to 11 February 2020, which came to 44,672 cases. Of these 1.2% were asymptomatic and 80.9% were classed as "mild". The overall mortality rate was found to be 2.3% 25.

In an article examining the first 425 infected cases in Wuhan, 56% of the infectees were male and the median age was 59 years 12. In this early cohort there were no children under 15 years old. Using this dataset, the group estimated that the R0 (basic reproduction number) of the novel coronavirus was 2.2, that is each infected individual - on average - causes 2.2 new cases of the disease. The incubation period in this group has been calculated to be 5.2 days on average 12.

A more recent study, for which researchers reviewed 12 studies of COVID-19, calculated the average R0 to be higher at 3.28 33.
. . . ​

Early reports are subject to change but better than nothing:

• 1.2% - asymptomatic
• 2-3% - death
• 80.9% - mild
• 80.9% + 3% + 1.2% ~= 85% suggesting ~15% are not so mild

The article includes excellent radiographs showing how a CAT scan can identify CORVID-19.

Bob Wilson

 

Big jump. 4 additional cases since this morning, including a second death. All four aged 70s to 90s, all with underlying health conditions, all at Evergreen hospital, which I believe is near the nursing home with the possible outbreak.

Latest total cases: 12 statewide, 10 of those in King County.

P.S. Add yet another Snohomish County case, aged 40s, bringing state total to 13.

All 6 live cases added today are in critical condition. That suggests there are far more less serious but still unidentified cases out there, that these tests were given priority because of patient condition.

 

That is great data!
It would also be nice to see how those stats vary by age group.
Because I also read that the death rate for healthy adults is something like 0.2%, while >10% for seniors.
So a 2-3% death rate depends on the mix of young and old in the sample.

Mike

 

So to get healthy air quality all we need to do is make everyone sick

Mike

 

Or stop buying so much useless stuff.
It’s just like drugs, you have supply, and you have demand.

Both sides have a certain amount of control