SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

The entire H something N something structure of seasonal influenza is a Lego set that seems unique for viral infections. The global human Petri dish where those Legos are continually being rebuilt is a formidable opponent. But most years are not so very bad, so it's dialed in.

New zoonotics are different.

 

There are many aspects here. Seasonal influenza complex is well established in the global human lung. It wanders geographically and does the Lego thing. Its lethality is (almost always) low, which it makes up for on volume.

If we go full 'Selfish Gene', it is a winner by commanding a goodly fraction of global proteins and global DNA to be its. What more could a virus hope for?

Novel zoonotics 'know' nothing. They just get access to a new, larger Petri dish and go. If they have an effective mix of latency, transmissibility and lethality, by lucky chance, they can win as well. At least for a while.

Overshooting winners (like 'Spanish' flu 1918) will later command ~zero fraction of global proteins and global DNA. Looser (to be read in Valley-girl voice). But viruses don't know, they only do.

We don't know what this new one will do. On its side are globalized travel and maybe Wuhan bosses recognizing their problem sluggishly. Against stand global health agencies and (taa daa) Gates Foundation spending big on this.

Message? keep buying Windows (TM) products. I guess.

 

US evacuation flight was to land at Ontario CA, but it will go to nearby (Riverside) March Air Force Base instead. So if you planned to see action at ONT, make new plans. Japan has already landed its evac flight with 206 and ~450 more will fly out later. No other countries' evac flight have been scheduled to my knowledge.

Total reported cases are now >6000 with 132 fatalities.

That's all I have and it is no fun to post these aspects.

 

One source would be:

Coronavirus update: Latest world news and live coverage - CNN

If WHO presented themselves as tracking all fatalities reported, it would be much better to look to them. But WHO work is to limit further spread and damage and I think that is most excellent work.

I agree that news media might not approach this question with adequate care, and completely open to suggestions for sources that are both muscular and non-inflammatory.

The question of %lethality rests for now with ~1000 patients now hospitalized in Wuhan in critical condition. We must hope they are being supported well, but it is not now a place where highest-level medical care can be provided.

 

To correct my earlier statement that WHO may not provide frequent updates, see:


Situation reports


Also it has now declared a PHEIC (public health emergency of international concern), which has the unfortunate pronunciation 'fake'.

The official government website is accessible here:

全国新型肺炎疫情实时动态 - 丁香园·丁香医生

The 4 numbers across the top refer to diagnosed cases, suspected cases, deaths, and recoveries.

 

Like for bisco who is in desperate need of those. Caused me to search and learn that China TV has added a channel showing live building process.

So I report that at Sunday 712am local (now), the first-floor modules are being installed on concrete slab. Which was poured 4 days ago! That's young concrete.

Scheduled opening is tomorrow Monday Feb 3. I can imagine that happening if this is to be a single-level structure. If it is to be taller it could not open tomorrow.

Second one being built is scheduled for Wednesday completion. I have no particular info on that one.

Within a few hours the govt website with people numbers will be updated.

==
Also Feb 3 is supposed to be when food deliveries to markets will restart. The few markets now open have some bare shelves.

Life-wise, situation is mostly stay at home. Wear facemask when one goes out (whether or not they are particularly effective). Wash up after returning home, Most public transport options are closed for now. There are many places where entry involves temperature screening (infrared 'look' at forehead). I now carry passport and other documents, which technically foreigners are always supposed to do, but hey it's sleepy Kunming. No one has yet asked to see 'my papers'.

 

Travel bans are not exactly the same as airlines cancelling flight, and the latter is happening by many carriers flying to China.

This is a new, long-latency respiratory virus with no vaccine yet available. I think that airlines have few options now.

There are two ways to calculate legality, and neither is accurate in early stage as now. But it does seem to be much less lethal than SARS.

Also this morning I learned that US evac flight was in a 747 cargo plane fitted with pax seats. Much is being made of that plane having separate air-handling system for the flight deck. Goes back to airlines' decisions because their highest-paid line employees (pilots) really don't want to share air with pax.

 

Today's update from China's ncov website (translated by me)

• 13858确诊病例 (confirmed cases)
  
• 17988疑似病例 (suspected cases)
  
• 304死亡人数 (fatalities)
  
• 322治愈人数 (recoveries)

 

I have a step nephew flying for China Eastern. He is not liking his job these days. All pax are screened (IR thermometer to forehead) but... mistakes happen.