SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    #3201 tochatihu, Dec 12, 2020
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    call me a week from now :)
     
    #3202 bisco, Dec 12, 2020
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i said leveled out, not turning down until you made me look at the 7 day average because you said they were increasing. excuse, 'accelerating upwards'
     
    #3203 bisco, Dec 12, 2020
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Hoping to offer good news then but other states seem more likely to feature in it.
     
    #3204 tochatihu, Dec 12, 2020
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    true, there's no good news around here. as i said before, red states blue states, we're all idiots. the numbers probably have less to do with behavior, and more to do with the nature of virus
     
    #3205 bisco, Dec 12, 2020
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I flipped through my API based graphs of all states with >40k total. None appear to show a post thanksgiving acceleration. Several showed pauses I attributed to delayed reporting above. But none have steeper slopes after than before.

    This may be an under reported good thing in that T-day was supposed to be killer.
     
    #3206 tochatihu, Dec 12, 2020
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    it was (is) a killer here. cdc says it has been a killer and will continue. not sure where they get their data
     
    #3207 bisco, Dec 12, 2020
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    CA had faster increase after T-day than in similar time period before. I looked at that one because it is so bad. TX did not. Not feeling much motivation to look at others right now.
     
    #3208 tochatihu, Dec 12, 2020
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i can't blame you, it is what it is. morbid curiosity?
     
    #3209 bisco, Dec 12, 2020
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    From earlier posts I perceive that you do not suppose differential public actions are now driving states in opposite directions. I think it is but cannot support with evidence.

    For whatever reasons, some upper Midwestern states are slowing, while most others (including warmer ones) are still increasing. Iowa led the former group. Success is the goal and politics are not. However and wherever improvements are being attained, everybody else look and adopt.
     
    #3210 tochatihu, Dec 12, 2020
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  11. sam spade 2

    sam spade 2 Senior Member

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    That requires some explanation.
    Continuing in an upward direction at the same speed, while not technically an "acceleration" is NOT a good thing.
     
    #3211 sam spade 2, Dec 13, 2020
  12. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Commonwealth.
     
    #3212 ETC(SS), Dec 13, 2020
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    New cases in Iowa have been decreasing since mid November

    iowa 20_12_11.png
    I call states with similar patterns decreasing. Indiana is approx.steady at a high level. CA is shooting up there.
     
    #3213 tochatihu, Dec 13, 2020
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    unfortunately, these states are doing nothing that i can find, so there's nothing to emulate. let the chips fall where they may
     
    #3214 bisco, Dec 13, 2020
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    There is good agreement with Johns Hopkins but the fatality rate is grim.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #3215 bwilson4web, Dec 14, 2020
  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    vax start this week
     
    #3216 bisco, Dec 14, 2020
  17. sam spade 2

    sam spade 2 Senior Member

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    Measured how, exactly ?
    Positive results to voluntary tests ?

    There is potential for this number to be WILDLY inaccurate.
    Maybe it is and maybe it isn't......and maybe it varies from place to place.

    I think that new hospitalizations and the death rate are much better measures of the trends.
     
    #3217 sam spade 2, Dec 14, 2020
  18. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    I believe I pretty well debunked that claim late last month, with followups since.

    Now Politifact has dealt with it too:
    PolitiFact | Chart comparing 2020 US death toll with previous years is flawed, uses incomplete data
     
    #3218 fuzzy1, Dec 14, 2020
  19. SFO

    SFO Senior Member

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    #3219 SFO, Dec 15, 2020
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  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I went back to the API database (now its enormous) and separated Iowa. Extracting the following daily data. It is not 2-week average. It starts a bit later. But interest was expressed in other aspects. The recent and (I think) important declines are represented in all.

    IA Hosp ICU vent.png
     
    #3220 tochatihu, Dec 15, 2020
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