Sales trend: Sept to Current, 2012

For a second was wondering if the VW Jetta in chart is the new hybrid. No, it's TDI.

VW is out of the gate with 169 Jetta hybrid sales in first month.

 

I've been a little intrigued by Volt sales of over 23k units in 2012. But have heard rumors it's not profitable.
Insight: GM's Volt: The ugly math of low sales, high costs| Reuters

 

If you notice the bad math skills of the analyst. Note there were a flury of these impartial analysts before the election. We don't need to do much guessing at their motivation.

Which makes you guess what is wrong with the analysis? No brand new car ever pays back R&D in the first 2 years unless it is a low production model like the porsche 918, and priced like one. The assumption by the analyst is that the technology will not be used in other cars, that there is no halo effect helping to market other cars like the cruze and sonic, and the gm will kill the car in September.

It is ugly math, because it is only their to decieve people into misunderstanding.

This month GM is unvailing the ELR, which will spread voltec to anouther model. It seems like a pretty bad assumption that voltec was about to be killed last september. Similarly you can do the same bad analysis on the original prius, or today's phv, leaf, tesla S and decide they are money losers.

 

Yes, Jetta hybrid is showing in the table. I didn't look near the bottom yesterday

 

Japan Full Year 2012: All-new Toyota Aqua tickles Prius! Best Selling Cars – Matt's blog » Japan Full Year 2012: All-new Toyota Aqua tickles Prius
1. Toyota Prius 317,675
2. Toyota Aqua 266,567
3. Honda Fit 209,276
4. Honda Freed 106,316
5. Toyota Vitz 105,611
6. Nissan Serena 96,020
7. Nissan Note 85,330
8. Toyota Corolla 80,459
9. Honda StepWGN 63,707
10. Toyota Vellfire 58,513

 

Its interesting how different the market is from the US. First in 2012
China 19.3 M
US 14.5 M
Japan 3.4 M - "regular cars" I think this means non kei cars

That means if we scale the aqua sales in Japan to the US market size 267K x 14.5/3.4 = 1,137K.

The Japanese market seems to have become completely different than ROW.

 

236,659 Prius US (all models)
317,675 Prius Japan (liftback)
266,567 Aqua Japan (c model)
---------
820,901

Then taking sales of the v model in Japan, hybrid sales in Europe & Canada, sales of Lexus hybrids, and sales of Camry/Highlander all into account, it's easy to see Toyota is well on it's way to the 1,000,000 per year goal.

 

John,
I don't think the final number has been tabulated, but Toyota exceeded that million hybrids world wide in 2012 without including Lexus. American sales were in line with expectations, China sales disappointed, but Japanese sales greatly exceeded them. I expect a press release when all the numbers are in from various countries.

American sales of hybrids are expected to increase in 2013, although Toyota may lose a little market share. Europe should also increase, but from very low 2012 levels. The weaker yen from Abe should help Toyota sell more Japanese produced hybrids. Japan is a wild card. The aqua looks like it will continue to do well, but the cut in subsidies may reduce 2013 prius lift back Japanese sales from the large 2012 levels.

 

What the heck is going on with the Honda Civic hybrid? That car has been out for year and a half. Was introduced as 2012 halfway through 2011. Stupid thing only sold 7,156 copies in all US in 2012.

>>> I suppose this is what happened to Civic and all Honda hybrids ...



Client Settlement Site > Home


Claimants can get a $100 payout and another $100 if also dissatisfied with the 'software update' from Honda. Can also get a $1000 rebate to purchase another Honda. The owners just wanted a fuel efficient car not all the hassle.

Honda sold an underwhelming 17,194 hybrids total last year in all for Civic, Insight and CR-Z.
Now Acura just came out with a ILX hybrid that also uses IMA and puny 1.5L gas engine. It's priced at $38k What is HMC smoking?

 

Now that there is a Jetta Hybrid, may want to remove past Diesel numbers.

 

Hybrids shrank a little less than the general market in January from December so yes it was seasonality. There was a rotation from old models to new models though. I expect a slight up tick in Febuary for non plug-ins brought on by higher gas prices.

In plug-ins there were inventory problems for chevy, Nissan, Tesla, and Ford. Some of it won't be worked out until March, but we should see steadily increasing sales in the next two months. The big numbers will wait until the end of the year though.

 

I would use that figure to decide if hybrids shrank because of something they did, or if it was the market in general. In January its just the US car market.

If we include plug-ins the big growth in market share last year was mainly driven by product. The prius c added to the lower priced compact segment, and killed the insight. Redesigned hybrid sedans camry hybrid - and its varients Lexus ES, Avalon, along with the fusion hybrid and its soon to be released mkz varient lowered the price point and improved the drive. The prius v - the wagon version likely just raised the ASP of prius transactions and got more satisfied customers. It didn't likely grow the market, but is important to Toyota as it slows the ford c-max from taking potential prius customers. The c-max figures will likely be seen this year, and then we can analyse whether they simply shifted hybrid dollars, or grew the market. Plug-ins were the biggest growth segment trippling from 2011.

2013 Looks to be another growth year both in volume and market share. Gas prices are a mystery and will help determine how high growth should be. Some of the new cars from 2012 only had partial years. One possible driver Toyota analysts think is possible is discounting of toyota hybrids. The yen/$ exchange is being pushed down by abe making american sold prii more profitable and lowering hybrid parts cost for american made Toyota hybrids. At the same time, the Japanese hybrid stimulus from last year has ended. That means that although the aqua may continue strong sales over there, the prius is likely to have falling volume. American discounts could help keep those Japanese factories running. Plug-ins should continue with strong growth.

 

Japan's January 2013 – models:
1. Toyota Aqua - 22,466
2. Toyota Prius - 17,733
3. Nissan Note - 14,529
4. Honda Fit - 8,834
5. Nissan Serena - 8,010
Best Selling Cars – Matt's blog » Japan January 2013: Toyota Crown shoots up to #8, a 4-year high

 

Good information. Its amazing how dominant toyota is in its home market. As expected the Aqua continued to do well, as it was in short supply last year and is up 67%. Having production and the end to some government incentives dropped the prius 39% from last year to number 2. Its still incredibly strong in Japan compared to the ROW. The Nissan Note and Toyota Crown had big gains.

Pos Model Jan /12 Dec 2012 Pos
1 Toyota Aqua 22,466 67% 1 266,567 2
2 Toyota Prius 17,733 -39% 2 317,675 1
3 Nissan Note 14,529 205% 3 85,330 7
4 Honda Fit 8,834 -59% 4 209,276 3
5 Nissan Serena 8,010 -3% 8 96,020 6
6 Toyota Vitz 5,822 -27% 9 105,611 5
7 Honda Freed 5,656 -60% 6 106,316 4
8 Toyota Crown 5,327 94% 29 29,963 26

 

Did not see separate numbers for Prius v, maybe included in total Prius numbers or misspelled in # 21. Toyota Alphard

 

Toyota Alphard - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia