Prius Plug-in vs Chevy-Volt thoughts

Agreed many Prius PHV users are getting more than 11 miles. Many Volt owners in warm climates are getting well above 35 EV miles as well.

Yep it says its miles between charges. If you presume multiple charges, per trip, then that is unrealistic as neither car has a QC function. (Charging either adds about 4miles/hour).

If you mean multiple trips per day with charges in between then you will be in the shorter milage par tof the graph for each trip and can just take the first section you want to consider. But the combinations are unbounded so not something I want to take the time to analyze.

 

The market for Volt is people who almost never drive much more than 35 miles, but who occasionally need to drive farther than 85 miles (Leaf range) and cannot afford to keep two cars but can afford the high price tag.

At the same time, the market for Volt is limited to people who have non-financial reasons for wanting to avoid burning gasoline, since for the cost of the Volt they could buy a used Honda or Toyota so much more cheaply that the cost of gas would never make up the difference.

OR the market for Volt is people who think electric is really cool and can afford the car but want to buy an American branded car.

And at that time I'd have bought one. But now there are solutions that work much better for me. GM dragged its heels and waited too long.

The market for the PiP is people for whom it is anathema to start an ICE for very short trips, OR fans of the Prius who see the small battery as a way to slightly increase mpg, but who do not want to leave a trusted brand and technology. OR someone who just wants to have the latest and fanciest Prius, which might be out of admiration for the HSD technology, or loyalty to Toyota.

PiP was never on the table for me. Originally I expected to trade in my 2004 for the next major model revision. But the Gen III just was not that big a step up for me, and by then the Prius had become my secondary car, for use only when the Xebra would not suffice. And for my road trips to Canada, the PiP would do no better than my 2004, and maybe not as well. Basically, I saw the Prius as the automotive technological leader and wanted to always have the best. Then Tesla came along, and "the best" moved from Japan to the USA.

So there is a distinct market for both the Volt and the PiP, but I think both are niche markets. Hybrids, PHVs and REEVs are really just interim fixes until battery technology provides an affordable all-day drive with overnight charging. Or until there's a 500-pound nuclear reactor capable of a continuous few hundred kW output in the $10K range. Not sure where we'd buy the fuel for it, though.

 

Or, for those that have 2 cars, only need 4 seats but for other reasons the second car is constrained to a SUV or Truck that yields < 40mph highway. (That's my family).

That depends on how one measures cost and what timeframe. With 8 years TCO can be better for the volt than a used Honda, see
A free calculator for Economy, Hybrid and Electric Cars

Many many variables in making the TCO decision. (Cheap power helps too, so does the need (or not) to borrow money, which for many is an issue that screams used car)

 

Same here, and I'd guess there are many more. Prius sales didn't really take off until they 'got it right' with the 2004 2G version, and even then it still took a couple of years later with help from a big tax credit and Katrina before it hit the mainstream.

At the current price-point, I'm not particularly interested in purchasing a Volt, either. But if GM sticks with and improves the Volt with each succeeding model in the same manner Toyota has done with the Prius (and maybe gets the price down a bit), who knows in a few years?

 

The same one I have been posting from the SAE paper. UF for 35 miles is 64% per J1711.

 

Holy cow, nice Dobsonian mine is 6-inch and I got an 8-inch auto Meade

 

We have to assume that someone who drives a Prius so as to get > 50 MPG will drive a Volt to get >37 MPG.

What's interesting here is that the crossover point is always in Volt's favor up to 100 miles between charges. Unless you drive A LOT, you're almost certainly going to use less gasoline with Volt than Prius, even if you do have that super-long cross-state trip now and then. I think there's no denying that Volt is a greener car.

 

Burner I'm not sure I agree with your analysis of the data you provided.

First, 25 miles per day is not some kind of aberration as you seem to suggest. According to the latest government data (2009) the average commute is 12.2 miles each way or 24.4 miles per day. So 25 miles per day is about typical. For those that can charge at work its half that. While this may not be typical now, its likely to become more common particularly as most large companies already provide similar benefits for carpoolers, bikers, public transit riders etc.

Next your savings calculation seems off to me. The base PiP is $32,000 - $2500 tax credit = $29,500. The standard Prius with the same features is the Prius III, which is $25,565. So the premium for the PiP is $3935. Your estimated fuel savings for 25 miles/day (single charge) over 100k miles is $2645, so the net cost premium for the PiP is $1290, not $3000. Granted, for someone who places no value on the additional benefits of the plugin, that's $1290 wasted. I would however argue that those same people would be unlikely to buy a Prius in the first place. Using your 50 mile/day (single charge) fuel costs, nearly double the national average, the PiP net premium is $2905.

For the Volt the base price is now $39,145 - $7500 = $31,645 assuming you have enough tax liability to claim the full credit. Based on IRS data <15% of taxpayers have enough tax liability to do so, but that's a whole other discussion. So the gross premium for the Volt is $2145 over the PiP, and $6080 over the Prius III. Factoring in fuel savings at 25 mile/day, the net premium is $629 over the PiP, and $1919 over the Prius III. For fuel savings at 50 miles/day the net premium is $2123 over the PiP and $5028 over the Prius III.

To put all that in table form:

25 miles per day single charge (or 50, 2 charge)​

------ $>PIII - %>PIII - $>PiP %>Pip Gal<PIII %<PIII Gal<PiP %<PIII
Volt -- $1919 --- 7.5% - $629 - 2.1% - 1983 -- 95% --- 700 ---- 88%
PiP --- $1290 --- 5.0% --------------- 1283 -- 62%

50 miles per day single charge
​

------ $>PIII - %>PIII - $>PiP %>Pip Gal<PIII %<PIII Gal<PiP %<PIII
Volt -- $5028 -- 19.6% - $2123 7.2% -- 1150 -- 58% --- 590 ---- 42%
PiP --- $2905 -- 11.3% ---------------- 560 -- 28%


Based on those numbers, it would appear to me that either car is a reasonable choice at either distance. In both cases the Volt achieves about double the fuel reduction at about double the net premium cost relative to the Prius III. It would be interesting to see the numbers for the case of a US average 12.2 mile commute with a recharge at work. Both the above cases are more in the sweet spot of the Volt, the 12.2 mile case should see little additional improvement from the Volt, but a significant improvement in the PiP.

That the PiP is targeted directly at the US average commute length, is still competitive with the Volt for longer commutes on a $ premium per gallon saved basis, and does not require a tax credit larger than most people can utilize to be competitive are all factors that lead me to believe that the PiP is on target to relatively wide scale adoption and as such will do much more than the Volt in the greater sense toward national fuel consumption reduction and moving us one step closer to cost effective and widely accepted electric vehicles. In that sense I think Toyota is taking the right step forward, and GM could have done better. The Volt is pretty cool in a vacuum, I just think the PiP is likely to be a more significant step forward.

The Volt may yet prove me wrong, but I still fear it has just as much potential to harm the progress toward a more electric national fleet, greater energy independence, and emissions reductions as it has potential to move us forward. In many ways I think that's why this subject get touchy for some. Its less to do with yeah, rah Toyota rocks and GM sucks, as it does with the very high stakes that ride on the success of these vehicles.

 

Nice analysis. I will point out however that the 2009 survey is often abused in in its numbers. Its 24miles per day average includes all workers. But in the report it notes "
One out of five workers either works exclusively from home (8.7 percent) or has the option to work at
home instead of going into their regular workplace (10.9 percent). "

The 8.7% include 0 miles into the average and depending on how many of the "option" category were telecomputing on the day of their interview it could be as high as 20% of the "distances" were 0 which sort of skews the averages.

Its also important to note that the "average" for work-trips (which are not really part of the commute.. ) are 20 miles per trip and account for almost half as many total miles as commuting.



But I totally agree that there are many in the market for who the PiP will be a more efficient car, just as there are many for the Volt and many for the Leaf. Potential buyers need to understand THEIR driving patterns.

 

Like I said, that perspective didn't emerge until later. Of course, it doesn't matter, hype can have more of an influence over fact anyway and the question was specifically for the fan bois... since the rest of us already knew.

The history of Two-Mode was so closely being followed a different outcome would have been remarkable.

Read the blogs that documented what happened when it happened. Looking back afterward, it's very easy to overlook detail and mixup timing.
.

 

It depends on what you define "green". Is using less gasoline more green? Is using less electricity more green? I have seen a trend where some people actually think that using more electricity equate to being green.

Using national average tailpipe and beyond emission figure, Volt would emit more CO2 per mile than a standard no-plug Prius (260 vs 222 g/mi). That's not green.

Will it use less gasoline? Yes. Will it reduce emission over Prius gas miles? No.

Prius PHV will be have even lower CO2 emission because at 290 Wh/mi and 590 gram/kWh (national average), electric miles on PHV would emit 171 gram/mi.

Remember, the "break even" point is not really a break even because Volt would have consumed 12.6 kWh vs. Prius PHV 3.2 kWh.

 

Those are good points, Seawolf, but I'm not convinced (yet) that your math is apples-to-apples. For instance, your tailpipe analysis is ICE-to-ICE, but you still have to travel maybe 60-80 miles before Volt spits out more carbon, right?

 

I think Prius PHV is for those want to use the right fuel for the right driving condition.

The plug battery power for short trips or slow speed drivings and gasoline for high speed or high power acceleration. There may be a blend of both when max power is needed or excessive battery charge is left.

The driving range is not a good way to determine which fuel is better. You can have 15 miles commute with 3 miles city traffic at the beginning and 2 miles end of the trip. The reason using the right fuel for the job is important is because, it will result in lower consumption of both fuels.

If a hybrid has two fuels, isn't it the purpose to reduce consumption of both fuels (not just one)? After all, it is the underlying concept of the synergy drive.

 

The number is the average CO2 number with 64% EV and 36% HV ratio. If Volt is running on electricity, it's emission would be 212 g/mi -- slightly lower than Prius gas mile.

Volt's emission would surpass the regular no-plug Prius by 40 miles range (35 miles on electricity and 5 miles on gas).

 

USBSeawolf's analsys is based on the carbon from electricity generation (based on 2007 data) averaged across the country. In california the grid where you live is much cleaner and the tradeoff is very different from say Colorado.

And USBseawolf ignores that in almost every state one can choose to buy green power.

 

The HSD reduces both fuels compared to some cars, but increase fuel use compared to other cars.

The purpose of a hybrid is to help its owner reduce what they want to reduce, which for most is reducing gas. If you want to reduce other fuels and increase gas usage, that your choice. That does not make it "right", just makes it your choice.

 

The national average includes renewable green electricity so I am not sure what you meant I ignored it.

You are correct that California electricity is cleaner than national average. It also cost more, probably double like here in NY.

Which car use less fuel than a comparable plugin HSD (Prius PHV)? Which fuel and which car?

That is fine. It will result in non-optimal condition if the owner is one fuel biased and refuse to go pure BEV. There is also compromises involved such as smaller interior volume, heavier car and higher cost and emission.

 

As I said in my comment, in most states people can CHOOSE to buy green electricity power, independent of what their local grid does. Just as I buy wind-power. Of couse, one can only buy as much green electricity as one uses.. so displacing gas to EV allows those who choose to be greener.

 

That doesn't change the national average. It just means the renewable electricity CREDIT will go into the owner's peace of mind. The actual electrons charged into the battery during at night are likely from non-renewable.

Another point is that you don't even have to drive Volt, EV or Prius PHV to buy the green electricity.